ski MRG Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 eh, kind of sucks that the last winter before the end of the world had to go down as a no winter. That all depends on where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 eh, kind of sucks that the last winter before the end of the world had to go down as a no winter. We can always hope for another October KU. Plenty of winter to be had before Dec 21st especially in GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That all depends on where you are. LOL keep fighting the good fight I'm thinking we end up around 60% of normal snowfall up here but still nice 5+ week run of snowpack so far here. 7-8" on the ground after the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ok on a scale of 1 to 10 0 = no winter 10 = the best .. This year is about a 3. Fail.... But my desire for snow is not diminished ...just to be honest. That all depends on where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 eh, kind of sucks that the last winter before the end of the world had to go down as a no winter. The last 2 pages of this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ok on a scale of 1 to 10 0 = no winter 10 = the best .. This year is about a 3. Fail.... But my desire for snow is not diminished ...just to be honest. Im waiting til April 1st before assigning a grade, maybe we get some surprises in the next two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 eh, kind of sucks that the last winter before the end of the world had to go down as a no winter. That's funny you say that Tip because the actual Mayan Long Count calendar ended on Oct. 28 2011 right before the Halloween weekend storm. The Dec. 2012 calculations were found to be wrong several years ago but most people are unaware of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ok on a scale of 1 to 10 0 = no winter 10 = the best .. This year is about a 3. Fail.... But my desire for snow is not diminished ...just to be honest. Ya can't get 50+ inches in 5 days every year... I'm just surprised you haven't had a bit more consistency out there at 1k feet. This has been especially poor in the highlands west of ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The NAM isn't remotely phased like the Euro and it has a nice slug of snow from here to GC ...about six hour thump Thursday evening. That's funny you say that Tip because the actual Mayan Long Count calendar ended on Oct. 28 2011 right before the Halloween weekend storm. The Dec. 2012 calculations were found to be wrong several years ago but most people are unaware of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That all depends on where you are. November and December sucked where you are....Jan was like normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Could be another mid week warm up next week, and then perhaps big +PNA FTW afterwards if ensembles are right. AK low retrogrades really pumping up heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 ugh... is there anything positive to look forward too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Box not jumpin in da hole .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY * RAIN NEAR THE COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR * A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 ugh... is there anything positive to look forward too? I just gave you a nice tid bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I just gave you a nice tid bit. "big +PNA FTW afterwards if ensembles are right. AK low retrogrades really pumping up heights." Translate for slow people like me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Could be another mid week warm up next week, and then perhaps big +PNA FTW afterwards if ensembles are right. AK low retrogrades really pumping up heights. Great news Scooter! Enjoying the warmth and looking forward to possible Feb snows down the line! Win Win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I just gave you a nice tid bit. is that from the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 "big +PNA FTW afterwards if ensembles are right. AK low retrogrades really pumping up heights." Translate for slow people like me? Sorry, I shouldn't assume people know. It means that as the big AK low retrogrades west, it will pump up a ridge across western North American. If you have a ridge there, you tend to have colder air and a trough in the east. Now, there is some question as to how cold it would be, but in general...it's a decent pattern for us, usually. Models do agree on it, so we have that going for us. We just need to make sure, this continues to be displayed as modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 is that from the euro ensembles? \ Yes, but all models have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Models have had it for a while, but seems like signal is growing a little stronger, fwiw. This may be tied into MJO stuff. If convection pushes closer to the dateline, ridging will have an easier time developing across the west coast of NAMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Sorry, I shouldn't assume people know. It means that as the big AK low retrogrades west, it will pump up a ridge across western North American. If you have a ridge there, you tend to have colder air and a trough in the east. Now, there is some question as to how cold it would be, but in general...it's a decent pattern for us, usually. Models do agree on it, so we have that going for us. We just need to make sure, this continues to be displayed as modeled right now. Ah thanks for that, always trying to learn. How long do these lows stay here.. So what I'm getting at is how long could we expect the cold temps. to stay around or do we need to wait until it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 "big +PNA FTW afterwards if ensembles are right. AK low retrogrades really pumping up heights." Translate for slow people like me? The Alaska vortex is a huge semi stationary low pressure sitting over Alaska creating a fast Pacific jet that doesn't allow a big +PNA Ridge to build on the west coast. The +PNA allows for 1) cold air to plunge into the east and 2) pacific shortwaves to dive and gain amplitude and provide storm possibilties in the east. if the vortex retrogrades (moves back west towards the Aleutians) it allows a big PNA Ridge to pump up along the west coast. Pway that this happens...pway pway pway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ah thanks for that, always trying to learn. How long do these lows stay here.. So what I'm getting at is how long could we expect the cold temps. to stay around or do we need to wait until it arrives. Well it will get colder this weekend into early next week. Then we may moderate with some sort of storminess near mid week. Could be snow or ice, or snow to ice to rain type deal. After that, we cool down to near normal, but it's not until later in the 1st week of Feb, that we may cool down farther. As far as how long it lasts...tough to tell. Some long range guidance like the euro weeklies tries to hang it around for most of the month, but this winter has found a way to snap any wintry spells. There are a lot of variables that dictate how long patterns can sustain themselves. If this pattern develops, it seems like it would be stable for at least a week or perhaps longer, but lets see if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Well it will get colder this weekend into early next week. Then we may moderate with some sort of storminess near mid week. Could be snow or ice, or snow to ice to rain type deal. After that, we cool down to near normal, but it's not until later in the 1st week of Feb, that we may cool down farther. As far as how long it lasts...tough to tell. Some long range guidance like the euro weeklies tries to hang it around for most of the month, but this winter has found a way to snap any wintry spells. There are a lot of variables that dictate how long patterns can sustain themselves. If this pattern develops, it seems like it would be stable for at least a week or perhaps longer, but lets see if this continues. Thanks so much for explaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 ugh... is there anything positive to look forward too? My annual Mardi Gras party on Feb. 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Could be another mid week warm up next week, and then perhaps big +PNA FTW afterwards if ensembles are right. AK low retrogrades really pumping up heights. There not...because that would mean snow chances and it is abundantly clear that can't be the case ...ever again, for ever and ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 it's funny how completely and utterly different the 18z NAM is compared to the 00z run last night... Now, it damps the southern stream s/w almost into oblivion as it runs it out thousands of mile S of us... What a f joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 gfs caves to the king. shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 gfs caves to the king. shocker. bring back the torch avatar please...GFS is awful.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 it's funny how completely and utterly different the 18z NAM is compared to the 00z run last night... Now, it damps the southern stream s/w almost into oblivion as it runs it out thousands of mile S of us... What a f joke! Same with the gfs...congrats Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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