wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This thread is for the snow part of the storm. If you're worried about my luck with storm threads, have no fear. It is not a bad track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Nice prof pic Hell of a win today Hope to see an inch or so of backside snow with this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 NWS has a watch up for Houghton county east. The counties to the SW are not included. So it looks like we are on the edge. Read the morning forecast discussion looking like Central UP will get the heavist accum. Nothing new there. That has been the trend with these synoptic systems the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Nice prof pic Hell of a win today Hope to see an inch or so of backside snow with this.. Yeah, it's a side situation with Bowme. That's all we can hope for, some backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The GFS actually develops some serious cold sector precip over southeast minnesota. Doubt it will come to fruition but worth watching. Edit: The Canadian actually looks decent as well just a little further to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Winter weather advisories have gone up just to my west this morning. Temperature has slowly risen, currently 26°, with light fog. Expected to really turn foggy near the lake later. Mainly for freezing rain: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 808 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 ...FREEZING DRIZZLE STARTING TO PUT DOWN A GLAZE... .FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOME ICING IS LIKELY ON UNTREATED ROADS...SIDEWALKS...AND OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES. MOTORISTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL...ALLOWING FOR EXTRA STOPPING DISTANCES AND TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS. PEDESTRIANS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICY SIDEWALKS. IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-230000- /O.NEW.KDVN.ZR.Y.0001.120122T1408Z-120123T0000Z/ BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 808 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. * FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY THEN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON. * UP TO 1/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED AND UNTREATED SURFACES. * TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING ON SOME ROADWAYS...PARKING LOTS...SIDEWALKS AND OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES. MOTORISTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL...ALLOWING FOR EXTRA STOPPING DISTANCES AND TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Winter weather advisories have gone up just to my west this morning. Temperature has slowly risen, currently 26°, with light fog. Expected to really turn foggy near the lake later. Mainly for freezing rain: Just looked at the 12z NAM and GFS; both are indicating the main precip band pushing through; must have trended a bit west. It'd be quite interesting (and perhaps scary) if surface temps remained at or below freezing. Unlikely to happen, but close to a really messy situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 12z 4km WRF looks like it brings an area of snow across eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI tomorrow morning behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I noticed the NMM brings the snow in too. This simulated radar shows the snow on the west side of the Lake. (Freezing line has already moved through). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro throws some decent snow on the backside in southern minnesota as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 If I was MKX I wouldn't be so certain that the region would not be seeing significant freezing rain. Temps seem to be slower to rise this afternoon than progged (still mid 20s in many cities away from the lake), and with many models bringing in significant moisture overnight, it is something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 If I was MKX I wouldn't be so certain that the region would not be seeing significant freezing rain. Temps seem to be slower to rise this afternoon than progged (still mid 20s in many cities away from the lake), and with many models bringing in significant moisture overnight, it is something to consider. Still 28° here. Is/was supposed to be 34° at 3pm - don't think it will make that until 5pm or later. Snowpack is definitely hindering the warming. I could see freezing rain being a problem later just inland from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Still 28° here. Is/was supposed to be 34° at 3pm - don't think it will make that until 5pm or later. Snowpack is definitely hindering the warming. I could see freezing rain being a problem later just inland from the lake. Just looked at the 17z RUC; it indicated the heaviest precip coming in around 15-17 hours from then, basically just after midnight. It indicated precip type as rain, but we'll have to see what ends up happening. The models have been a little too warm if anything recently, so this could be another situation like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Maybe some places tonight will have a thunder freezing rain storm! Then changing to snow afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 NWS has a watch up for Houghton county east. The counties to the SW are not included. So it looks like we are on the edge. Read the morning forecast discussion looking like Central UP will get the heavist accum. Nothing new there. That has been the trend with these synoptic systems the last few years. For Houghton I would prefer the storms that move into arctic air with prolonged East winds. Some of the most incredible LES events are from E to ENE winds in the Keweenaw. This storm will not do it unfortunately. I don't know what it is about the Keweenaw but the bullseye of storm are typically to the just to the SE in Baraga to Marquette or to the west in Duluth. I think this storm does look like a good 4"- 6" maybe 8" if things are strong enough. Good Luck. Wish I was up there tonight for the fun!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 We've been put under a winter weather advisory for the freezing drizzle/fog until 8 pm this evening. 29 °F at MSN, 28 °F on top of the met building, and constant drizzle. Will be interesting to see what happens as the real precip begins tonight after 6 pm or so. I'm also wondering if we'll ever get above freezing. Also, HRRR shows freezing drizzle intensifying over the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Freezing drizzle and fog moving in here. Steady at 30°. The wind and damp air really chills you to bone! Temperatures are running a good 4-5° below guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 All the treated surfaces are fine, but a layer of ice has developed on cars, as well as the snowpack. Not much drizzle at the moment, which may change soon as we get towards evening, hence the advisory. I guess the biggest threat is if the trees get iced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I scraped away a bit on my windshield to give an idea of what we have. Just noticed MSN is reporting accumulating precip since 2 pm, 0.02" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Winter Weather Advisories being extended across eastern WI. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 DTX added a mention of a period of feezing drizze tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 30 °F at MSN, 29.4 °F on top of the met building. How long we hold onto this freezing layer determines how bad the impacts get. GFS says it gets wiped out by 7 pm, while the NAM says it holds around all night and morning and we get over 0.1" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Freezing drizzle/fog has created a thin glaze on the trees. Temp. barely moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 30 °F at MSN, 29.4 °F on top of the met building. How long we hold onto this freezing layer determines how bad the impacts get. GFS says it gets wiped out by 7 pm, while the NAM says it holds around all night and morning and we get over 0.1" of ice. Considering the strength of this system & warm air I would guess the GFS is right. All the years I have followed storm in these parts it seem warm air wins the battle in storms like this (i.e. when the surface low is to your west & it is not slamming into a massive 1035+MB arctic high). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Considering the strength of this system & warm air I would guess the GFS is right. All the years I have followed storm in these parts it seem warm air wins the battle in storms like this (i.e. when the surface low is to your west & it is not slamming into a massive 1035+MB arctic high). Yeah I agree. Temperature has risen to 29.7 °F on top of the met building, it's been a slow warm up but it isn't stopping. Dangerously slippery sidewalks around where I live, the more well traveled areas next to campus aren't that bad. Things could get worse if the freezing layer sticks around as more substantial precip moves in, that's the question at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 A light freezing rain has started up here. Driveway, trees, and car are iced up. Supposed to be 36° by 8pm... have my doubts though. Temperature has been steady last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Bucket tipped again at MSN, up to 0.03". Temperature up to 31 °F there, 30.1 °F on top of the met building. Radar echoes increasing aloft, but HRRR says real precip won't hit till midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 32 °F at MSN as of 6 pm, 30.6 °F on top of the met building. Very strong WAA at 925 hPa suggests we will lose this battle soon. Up to 0.04", which is surprising given how small the droplets out there are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Air temp is 32.4° here. Drizzle is still freezing on the cold surfaces. Looks like most of the heavy rain will miss to the south. Probably don't have to worry about too much runoff causing any local problems later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Just out. Looks like they added more salt to the roads. The one off ramp was a little slick. My driveway is pretty glazed. All stations on WU are between 29F and 31F around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.