turtlehurricane Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Really heavy fog just blew in to MSN apparently, below 1 mile visibility w/ the temperature holding at 26 °F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If Chicago manages to get yet another winter storm (which would be 3) in what should be an otherwise "crappy" season with this closed low, while Detroit and Toronto has YET to even see a storm greater than 3" (let along an advisory or warning criteria event), I seriously give the f*ck up on this winter. And this is after they've come off a season with a historic nearly 2' blizzard. I don't even want to hear the crap about the final seasonal totals. What's more important IMO is how one reaches their seasonal totals. If one ends up with an above average season with no winter storm then it would leave much to be desired. Not even a EPIC blizzard and/or snow dump (1,000,000 to 1 odds) would repair the wounds of this season at that point (it would heal them some, but not completely). And it wouldn't be as disappointing either if we weren't getting to the point in the season where one needs either the snow to fall in the nighttime or significant snowfall rates/snowflake size for the snow to actually accumulate and/or if there was actually a REAL pattern change in the offing sooner rather than after the next 2-3 weeks (because remind you, the Plains must do some HEFTY catching up first so we can try to sustain whatever cold air advects overhead in the first place). The only bright "Misery loves company" side to this winter is it's disappointing for every type of winter weather lover (snowstorm fans and snowcover fans). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Fog over here. They say its suppose to burn off sometime this morning, but i'm not holding my breath. 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Number of days with low temp < 18F at Chicago (ORD) through February 9, 1959-present: Most (1) 68, 1976-77 (2) 59, 1981-82 (3) 54, 2008-09 (4) 52, 1977-78 (5) 45, 1984-85 Fewest (1) 11, 2011-12* (2) 16, 1997-98 (3) 17, 2001-02 (4) 20, 1986-87 (5) 21, 2005-06 * Assuming no days < 18F from 2/2/12 through 2/9/12, which appears likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Pretty much the entire state of Wisconsin is covered by fog right now. Not sure if this is going anywhere. Its like March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 thin deck of inversion stratus/fog just won't burn off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Foggy this morning here. 36° with low overcast and a wind off the lake. If these conditions continue, I can forget about getting to 40° today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 33F fog ... Rochester, MN (60 miles west) sunny and 43F Bad forecasting the last few days... Models must have a horrible time with fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 thin deck of inversion stratus/fog just won't burn off. Yup, stuck at 31 °F cause of it up here. I will be very surprised if I see the sun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Reading between the lines in the New England subforum, it looks like the 12z Euro brings some decent cold air into the Midwest around Day 7-8. Maybe the 15th time will be the charm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Reading between the lines in the New England subforum, it looks like the 12z Euro brings some decent cold air into the Midwest around Day 7-8. Maybe the 15th time will be the charm... It is much colder in the D7-9 period than it has been. By D10 it looks like the warmth is ready to invade from the Plains, but with a strong -NAO signature (strongest I've seen this season), most of that warmth would get shunted to the S & W. Problem is that the OP EURO has not been very consistent beyond D7. If the EURO ensembles don't budge I'd ride them like I'd ride Brooke Shields circa 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 New Dense Fog Advisory Issued by MKX. Doesn't look sun today or probably tomorrow either with this system approaching. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 233 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012 ...MORE DENSE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WIZ046-056-057-062-063-067>069-030445- /O.NEW.KMKX.FG.Y.0004.120203T0000Z-120203T1800Z/ MARQUETTE-SAUK-COLUMBIA-IOWA-DANE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BARABOO...PORTAGE... WISCONSIN DELLS...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...DARLINGTON...MONROE... JANESVILLE...BELOIT 233 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY. * TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * VISIBILITY...1/4 MILE OR LESS. * IMPACTS...DENSE FOG WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WILL LEAD TO FROST FORMATION ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKS...RESULTING IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SLOW DOWN WHEN YOU ENCOUNTER ONE OF THESE DENSE FOG BANKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We are going to have super fog tonight with the fog already in place. Stuck at 32 °F, it hasn't gone above freezing all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 47F and sun in Rochester, MN...33F and clouds today here!! ! yippee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 47F and sun in Rochester, MN...33F and clouds today here!! ! yippee! Sounds like the fog is confined the the river valley then. That's quite a difference in temperatures over...what about 40 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Sun poked through this morning and it hit 44, now low clouds and 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I think its about 60 miles as the crow flies. this wx sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Rochester drops 10F in the last ob reading after fog moved back in... Not bad...probably the last shot of winter, unless we get a reload from Siberia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Wow, what an interesting day. Was very foggy all morning with a coating of rime on about everything exposed outside. Looked very cool. The fog quickly lifted around noon and everything melted. This was all when I was at work. I left work about 45min ago and as I drove northeast it went from 10 mile visibility to about 1/4 mile over the course of a mile or two. Very foggy here at home and it looks like the temp never made it out of the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Fog is back here, 34°. Probably get a coating of rime tonight. Expected low is 29˜. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Fog is back here, 34°. Probably get a coating of rime tonight. Expected low is 29˜. Considering fog basically acts as a refrigerator makes me think things could get colder than expected when the fog really gets going. Radiation is lost to space at the top of the fog since water vapor emits radiation, and none is gained. This leads to penetrative cold downdrafts that mix throughout the fog layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Considering fog basically acts as a refrigerator makes me think things could get colder than expected when the fog really gets going. Radiation is lost to space at the top of the fog since water vapor emits radiation, and none is gained. This leads to penetrative cold downdrafts that mix throughout the fog layer. Good explanation! Have to see what the temperature trend is tonight. Definitely a damp, cold evening. Visibility is still around 4.0 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 A few of us have tossed around the 2002 idea as a possible match.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NWS here in La Crosse had this today: BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS A MODERATE TO STRONG NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES...AND NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EITHER JUST BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OR REMAIN TO OUR EAST. THIS ACTUALLY FITS IN WELL WITH A COMPOSITE ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS NO STRONG STATISTICAL SIGNAL BETWEEN THE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND THE AVERAGE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE TELECONNECTION WITH THE ANOMALOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS CONTINUING TO OCCUR ACROSS INDONESIA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC. SINCE THIS CONVECTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WOULD BE SEEN IN PHASE 5. DURING THIS PHASE...LONG WAVE TROUGHS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CFS VERSION 2 WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO CONSISTENTLY FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS. FOR THE TIME BEING...JUST COOLED THE TEMPERATURES TO EITHER SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Wednesday, February 1st: Hi: 45F Lo: 30F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 15MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Thursday, February 2nd: Hi: 38F Lo: 28F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 12MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Just checked my data from last winter season. At this point last season we were at 51.6". Currently sitting at 11.7", which is 39.9" less than last season to this point. We only received 5.1" more snow after this date last season. Of course last season's snowfall was well above average. If we were to receive the same amount of snow going forward as we did last season (which of course is very unlikely) we would total 16.8" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 0z GFS says stick a fork in it... Probably time to start wasting time doing something else. Check back towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The GFS/GEFS, ECMWF MJO forecasts take it to Phase 8. Which would feature a trough in the east/ridge to our west. Probably leave this area kinda dry on the backside of a trough. We would have to wait until a progression into Phase 1 & 2 for better storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Heading to Hayward Wisconsin this weekend. 42 and full sun is the forecast. Don't see that every february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Dead calm morning. 0 (zero) winds. Question of today is will the area breakout into mostly sunny skies? Clear skies ATM here. Should have temps creeping to 50 as well. Considering starting some early outside Spring cleaning. Not really a busy weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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