February 2012 General Discussion

[Jonger]

Yeah that was bad! Rain storms in the middle of January!

Our spell of winter in January occurred when the MJO approached Phase 7. Didn't quite make it, but it shows what needs to happen to get winter back! There's a great thread on it in main forum.

So is the MJO the flavor of the week now. It always seems theres a preferred index that people like to use.

[Geos]

So is the MJO the flavor of the week now. It always seems theres a preferred index that people like to use.

From what I've read, the MJO is a more reliable pattern indicator. Teleconnections are not that reliable when you have a stagnant MJO. I would watch the MJO this month.

[AppsRunner]

Actually a pretty strong consensus with a strong MJO wave moving from Phase 6 into phase 7 in the next week or so. Once it gets there, things get a little dicey. There's a pretty good chance the MJO weakens and probably will slowly head back into the COD. This leaves two potential questions: 1.) Does it make it into phase 8 or even 1 before re-entering the COD? and 2.) Where will it re-emerge? The answers to those two questions will likely affect what happens this February greatly. IF it manages to progress into phase 8, I would expect colder (even below average) temperatures to arrive in the area in about 2 weeks from now. This would go along well with a -AO/+PNA patter than is developing. However, if it stalls back in phase 7 and then goes into the COD, things will likely get uglier than they have been.

The second question would really only relate to how long (if at all) it gets cold here. If the MJO get stuck back in phase 4 or 5, might as well just forget about it. It probably shouldn't be taking all the blame, but it's one of the biggest reasons this winter has been awful here.

There seems to be good agreement on at least a temporary pattern switch lasting 10-14 days, but how cold and/or snowy remains to be seen. Hopefully, as others have mentioned, it doesn't go from warm and rainy to cold and dry, and there is in fact a window of opportunity to get a decent storm.

[Jonger]

Yah for Lake effect! I'm heading to Houghton, MI Feb 13th.... They have 20-30 inches... but I need reinforcing snow on the snowmobile trails!

[Chicago WX]

Indy Super Bowl organizers have to be pumped/thankful with this weather. Looks like 50+ every day leading up to this Sunday.

[Hoosier]

Indy Super Bowl organizers have to be pumped/thankful with this weather. Looks like 50+ every day leading up to this Sunday.

Imagine if there would've been a GHD like storm this weekend.

[Chicago WX]

Imagine if there would've been a GHD like storm this weekend.

That would have been the worst case scenario for them.

Even repeating the exact dates, meaning it happened today, tomorrow, and Thu, would have been a disaster considering how long it took to clean up down there.

[Jonger]

When the superbowl was in Detroit we had winter storm warnings out the night before. It ended up being like 2 inches in the city and 6-8 NW of Detroit. The night before the superbowl was nasty.

[KokomoWX]

Who would have thought this...

[Hoosier]

Although January was mild, the positive anomaly is less than December here. If I had to guess I would say that February continues that trend but that doesn't mean it will actually be below average.

[Chicago WX]

A little guess the weather in Indianapolis on Super Bowl Sunday contest. Winner gets a cookie.

I'll go with a high of 31 with snow showers.

This looks horribly wrong. Last call...high of 46 with a chance of light rain.

[michsnowfreak]

Actually a pretty strong consensus with a strong MJO wave moving from Phase 6 into phase 7 in the next week or so. Once it gets there, things get a little dicey. There's a pretty good chance the MJO weakens and probably will slowly head back into the COD. This leaves two potential questions: 1.) Does it make it into phase 8 or even 1 before re-entering the COD? and 2.) Where will it re-emerge? The answers to those two questions will likely affect what happens this February greatly. IF it manages to progress into phase 8, I would expect colder (even below average) temperatures to arrive in the area in about 2 weeks from now. This would go along well with a -AO/+PNA patter than is developing. However, if it stalls back in phase 7 and then goes into the COD, things will likely get uglier than they have been.

The second question would really only relate to how long (if at all) it gets cold here. If the MJO get stuck back in phase 4 or 5, might as well just forget about it. It probably shouldn't be taking all the blame, but it's one of the biggest reasons this winter has been awful here.

There seems to be good agreement on at least a temporary pattern switch lasting 10-14 days, but how cold and/or snowy remains to be seen. Hopefully, as others have mentioned, it doesn't go from warm and rainy to cold and dry, and there is in fact a window of opportunity to get a decent storm.

What is the COD? I dont really understand the MJO, I just know its good to go to 7-8.

[Geos]

Actually a pretty strong consensus with a strong MJO wave moving from Phase 6 into phase 7 in the next week or so. Once it gets there, things get a little dicey. There's a pretty good chance the MJO weakens and probably will slowly head back into the COD. This leaves two potential questions: 1.) Does it make it into phase 8 or even 1 before re-entering the COD? and 2.) Where will it re-emerge? The answers to those two questions will likely affect what happens this February greatly. IF it manages to progress into phase 8, I would expect colder (even below average) temperatures to arrive in the area in about 2 weeks from now. This would go along well with a -AO/+PNA patter than is developing. However, if it stalls back in phase 7 and then goes into the COD, things will likely get uglier than they have been.

The second question would really only relate to how long (if at all) it gets cold here. If the MJO get stuck back in phase 4 or 5, might as well just forget about it. It probably shouldn't be taking all the blame, but it's one of the biggest reasons this winter has been awful here.

There seems to be good agreement on at least a temporary pattern switch lasting 10-14 days, but how cold and/or snowy remains to be seen. Hopefully, as others have mentioned, it doesn't go from warm and rainy to cold and dry, and there is in fact a window of opportunity to get a decent storm.

Agree with all of that. If it's well into Phase 7 this region may get another spell of winter like we had a couple weeks ago, but we'd get an early spring likely. When the MJO moved into the COD, does it become a useless indicator at predicting what the pattern will be? Or does the way it comes into the COD have a factor?

[weatherpsycho]

What is the COD? I dont really understand the MJO, I just know its good to go to 7-8.

Circle of Death

[daddylonglegs]

I guess that is something resembling winter...

[BeastFromTheEast]

I guess that is something resembling winter...

Looks to be aiming right at the Winter Fail/Cancel Crowd

[Stebo]

I guess that is something resembling winter...

Awesome I was tired of warm and wet now I get cold and dry, so much better....

[SpartyOn]

I guess that is something resembling winter...

If it even happens.

[AppsRunner]

What is the COD? I dont really understand the MJO, I just know its good to go to 7-8.

The circle of death. Others call it different names, but it's basically where the MJO is inactive or very weak.

Agree with all of that. If it's well into Phase 7 this region may get another spell of winter like we had a couple weeks ago, but we'd get an early spring likely. When the MJO moved into the COD, does it become a useless indicator at predicting what the pattern will be? Or does the way it comes into the COD have a factor?

I'm sure we'll probably be above average for the next week to 10 days, as this is projected to be the strongest the MJO has been in quite some time. It should be noted that phase 8 isn't all that great, with it's cold anomalies focused on the EC. Phase 1 or phase 2 would likely be the best phases for snowstorms in the region, but I'm sure that's somewhat arguable.

As far as effects from entering the COD, I'm not exactly sure. Don S in the main forum could probably explain better, but from what I understand usually the pattern "lingers", but global telleconnections can change the overall pattern.

Another thing to note is that this is not the first time this has been shown on forecast models (going into 7/8). Also, the last few days any progression towards those phases has stalled, which most of the more favorable forecasts for the region did not show. My gut says that this becomes another wasted attempt, but a chance to get a couple weeks of winter weather is becoming more and more probable. Not enough to say likely yet, but I definitely see potential for a relatively cold month (compared to anomalies this Dec./Jan).

[daddylonglegs]

Sparty-

That was kind of my thought... Something to keep an eye on I guess. Really amazing how warm some of you guys have been. I still haven't cashed in on the recent warm spell (low 40Fs again today).

If you look out to 240hr on the EURO it shows that chunk of cold just rotating in Canada...maybe it will get tugged right down over the Ohio Valley, sit and spin...

[OHweather]

My thoughts on the February pattern across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley…

In the near term, a continued Alaskan Vortex/+EPO combined with an upper low over southern Greenland, which for all intents and purposes over the CONUS acts as a +NAO, will help make it hard to see anything cooler than above normal readings across much of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. But, (perhaps temporary) changes in the Pacific and in the stratosphere are already taking place and seem to be signaling a cooler month of February, compared to normal, than December and January across the region.

This winter, thus far, has featured an abnormally strong polar vortex, with no high latitude blocking on our side of the hemisphere to attempt to dislodge said vortex. In the tropics, due in large part to the La Nina ongoing in the Tropical Pacific, convection has had a hard time progressing east of the dateline. This has resulted in a very fast, and for the most part zonal, flow off the Pacific into North America, flooding much of the nation with warm, Pacific air for much of the winter. So, what has changed to cause this abysmal pattern to potentially end in February?

In the Tropical Pacific, just west of the dateline, convection has increased over the past couple weeks. Now, this is not the first time we have seen convection here this winter. However, this appears to be the strongest attempt at an MJO thus far this winter, as the MJO has been nearly dormant for a good portion of the past 90 days:

We have not had an MJO as active as the current pulse at all in the past 90 days. The global models are all in agreement in continuing to intensify this pulse over the next week, and progress it eastward somewhat.

The GFS ensemble and ECM ensemble MJO forecasts over the next two weeks both show the MJO pulse propagating into at least phase 8, however the ECM dissipates the wave faster and does not show apparent progress into phase 1. The GFS seems to much more intense with the MJO wave and shows what would be some potential to get into phase 1, which is a favorable quadrant for the region.

Sea surface temperatures are still below average east of the dateline in the tropics, and the MJO has been dormant essentially all winter. I will lean heavily on a moderately strong MJO moving into phase 8 the second week of February and gradually weakening. While not “favorable” for a snowstorm in this region on its own, this MJO progression, if it verifies, would support amplification and some actual blocking over the western portions of the continent as early as next week. The models are in fairly good agreement in developing a +PNA in this time frame:

In addition to changes in the Pacific, the stratosphere has warmed a notable amount over the past few weeks. For much of the winter, positive zonal wind anomalies and much colder than normal temperatures dominated north of 60N in the upper most portions of the atmosphere. This no doubt contributed to the lack of high latitude blocking we have seen thus far this winter. This however, has certainly changed recently:

Temps in the stratosphere are actually running near to above normal over much of the northern hemisphere, for the first time this winter. In addition, zonal winds have significantly weakened and are running near to slightly faster than normal, indicating a more neutral QBO has finally taken hold:

Also, the propagation vectors (bottom graph) are, for the time being, not equator-ward, which indicates a less hostile environment for the potential downwelling of any stratospheric warming (see the buried stratospheric warming page in the main forum). These signs point to an overall weaker stratospheric vortex, which often means a weaker tropospheric polar vortex and more potential for high latitude blocking. The arctic oscillation index/AO shows this well, and has taken on a much more negative look of late:

The NAO is also forecast to become more neutral to negative over the next two weeks, which correlates well to a phase 7-8 MJO:

(Courtesy Raleighwx.americanwx.com--Allan Huffman)

Essentially, we are seeing some things, right now, that we have not seen all winter:

1. The MJO, albeit slightly for the time being, is stronger than it has been all winter, and has a decent chance at making it into phase 8 during the second week of February. This correlates to a +PNA, which supports colder than normal temperatures across the region
   
2. The stratosphere is warmer than it has been all winter and the stratospheric vortex appears to have been disrupted. This supports high latitude blocking developing 1-2 weeks down the road, which as the KBUF discussion mentioned, lines up well with when the MJO pulse will try to hit phase 8.
   
3. The AO has finally fallen into negative territory and looks to stay there as we head into February.
   

With this said, I do think the MJO will collapse back into the “circle of death” in the 2-3 week timeframe as the ECM ensembles are pointing towards. However, I believe the next week will be a transitory week with cooler temperatures (near normal) trying to build, especially in the lakes/Ohio Valley points eastward. I think the trough axis will be too far north/east for a synoptic snowstorm over much of the region. Any storms trying to move east (like this weekend’s “threat”) will really dampen out east of the Mississippi, only to potentially re-intensify well to our east.

The second and potentially third weeks of February, based on the expected evolution of the MJO/PNA/EPO in tandem with some potential Atlantic side blocking will favor below normal temperatures over much of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. I do believe this might be a cold/dry type pattern if we do see a period of –NAO like I think we will, which will keep the trough axis too far east for much of our region to benefit. I do think we will see clippers and lake effect snow, so this may be the best opportunity all winter for many areas all winter to build up some kind of a snow pack that sticks around for a week or two.

As the MJO collapses back into the circle of death I believe we will see a more variable pattern develop. We may see some high latitude blocking continue the last week of the month, as the QBO has been falling all winter and will be favorable as it has been all winter this month, so I believe February 20-30 may feature some kind of notable synoptic snow in our region, although by that point I believe temps will for the most part be running above normal again and any storm may be a thread the needle type deal.

Overall, I expect much of the region to average within a degree of normal temperature wise this month, and below normal precip wise farther NW and near to above normal precip wise farther south over the OV and farther east towards the Appellations/Canada.

[hm8]

My thoughts on the February pattern across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley…

As tough as that was to read from a winter lover's standpoint , great write up.

[daddylonglegs]

Very nice write up! I've got to agree ... some cold, but probably not enough to make up for what has been for a lot of people on here, a non existent winter.

0Z GFS...nice little cold shot and then a blowtorch mid month.

Snowcover here is going to dwindle to piles if the GFS is at all correct. No precip, temps above freezing... throw in some sun and we'll see melt every day.

[SpartyOn]

My thoughts on the February pattern across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley…

In the near term, a continued Alaskan Vortex/+EPO combined with an upper low over southern Greenland, which for all intents and purposes over the CONUS acts as a +NAO, will help make it hard to see anything cooler than above normal readings across much of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. But, (perhaps temporary) changes in the Pacific and in the stratosphere are already taking place and seem to be signaling a cooler month of February, compared to normal, than December and January across the region.

This winter, thus far, has featured an abnormally strong polar vortex, with no high latitude blocking on our side of the hemisphere to attempt to dislodge said vortex. In the tropics, due in large part to the La Nina ongoing in the Tropical Pacific, convection has had a hard time progressing east of the dateline. This has resulted in a very fast, and for the most part zonal, flow off the Pacific into North America, flooding much of the nation with warm, Pacific air for much of the winter. So, what has changed to cause this abysmal pattern to potentially end in February?

In the Tropical Pacific, just west of the dateline, convection has increased over the past couple weeks. Now, this is not the first time we have seen convection here this winter. However, this appears to be the strongest attempt at an MJO thus far this winter, as the MJO has been nearly dormant for a good portion of the past 90 days:

We have not had an MJO as active as the current pulse at all in the past 90 days. The global models are all in agreement in continuing to intensify this pulse over the next week, and progress it eastward somewhat.

The GFS ensemble and ECM ensemble MJO forecasts over the next two weeks both show the MJO pulse propagating into at least phase 8, however the ECM dissipates the wave faster and does not show apparent progress into phase 1. The GFS seems to much more intense with the MJO wave and shows what would be some potential to get into phase 1, which is a favorable quadrant for the region.

Sea surface temperatures are still below average east of the dateline in the tropics, and the MJO has been dormant essentially all winter. I will lean heavily on a moderately strong MJO moving into phase 8 the second week of February and gradually weakening. While not “favorable” for a snowstorm in this region on its own, this MJO progression, if it verifies, would support amplification and some actual blocking over the western portions of the continent as early as next week. The models are in fairly good agreement in developing a +PNA in this time frame:

In addition to changes in the Pacific, the stratosphere has warmed a notable amount over the past few weeks. For much of the winter, positive zonal wind anomalies and much colder than normal temperatures dominated north of 60N in the upper most portions of the atmosphere. This no doubt contributed to the lack of high latitude blocking we have seen thus far this winter. This however, has certainly changed recently:

Temps in the stratosphere are actually running near to above normal over much of the northern hemisphere, for the first time this winter. In addition, zonal winds have significantly weakened and are running near to slightly faster than normal, indicating a more neutral QBO has finally taken hold:

Also, the propagation vectors (bottom graph) are, for the time being, not equator-ward, which indicates a less hostile environment for the potential downwelling of any stratospheric warming (see the buried stratospheric warming page in the main forum). These signs point to an overall weaker stratospheric vortex, which often means a weaker tropospheric polar vortex and more potential for high latitude blocking. The arctic oscillation index/AO shows this well, and has taken on a much more negative look of late:

The NAO is also forecast to become more neutral to negative over the next two weeks, which correlates well to a phase 7-8 MJO:

(Courtesy Raleighwx.americanwx.com--Allan Huffman)

Essentially, we are seeing some things, right now, that we have not seen all winter:

1. The MJO, albeit slightly for the time being, is stronger than it has been all winter, and has a decent chance at making it into phase 8 during the second week of February. This correlates to a +PNA, which supports colder than normal temperatures across the region
   
2. The stratosphere is warmer than it has been all winter and the stratospheric vortex appears to have been disrupted. This supports high latitude blocking developing 1-2 weeks down the road, which as the KBUF discussion mentioned, lines up well with when the MJO pulse will try to hit phase 8.
   
3. The AO has finally fallen into negative territory and looks to stay there as we head into February.
   

With this said, I do think the MJO will collapse back into the “circle of death” in the 2-3 week timeframe as the ECM ensembles are pointing towards. However, I believe the next week will be a transitory week with cooler temperatures (near normal) trying to build, especially in the lakes/Ohio Valley points eastward. I think the trough axis will be too far north/east for a synoptic snowstorm over much of the region. Any storms trying to move east (like this weekend’s “threat”) will really dampen out east of the Mississippi, only to potentially re-intensify well to our east.

The second and potentially third weeks of February, based on the expected evolution of the MJO/PNA/EPO in tandem with some potential Atlantic side blocking will favor below normal temperatures over much of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. I do believe this might be a cold/dry type pattern if we do see a period of –NAO like I think we will, which will keep the trough axis too far east for much of our region to benefit. I do think we will see clippers and lake effect snow, so this may be the best opportunity all winter for many areas all winter to build up some kind of a snow pack that sticks around for a week or two.

As the MJO collapses back into the circle of death I believe we will see a more variable pattern develop. We may see some high latitude blocking continue the last week of the month, as the QBO has been falling all winter and will be favorable as it has been all winter this month, so I believe February 20-30 may feature some kind of notable synoptic snow in our region, although by that point I believe temps will for the most part be running above normal again and any storm may be a thread the needle type deal.

Overall, I expect much of the region to average within a degree of normal temperature wise this month, and below normal precip wise farther NW and near to above normal precip wise farther south over the OV and farther east towards the Appellations/Canada.

Great write up. Thanks for sharing that info.

[Trent]

February 1st:

The amount of non mountain places with more than 10" on the ground is well ... laughable

[SpartyOn]

If this pattern continues into Spring it's possible we could be looking at some interesting temp spreads and anomalies. It's really hard to speculate on the nature of how this will persist. Late winter of 2002? Or March 2010?

[daddylonglegs]

Feb begins...

I say LSE ends +2F on temp and precip will be well below normal.

GFS is mild through 2/17...shows no precip!

"If you like Pina Colada..."

[Chicago WX]

+2.2 with temps and 9.3" of snow for LAF in February. At least that's my WAG. We shall see.

Who am I kidding?

+5.2 and 1.5". Final.

[KokomoWX]

Who am I kidding?

+5.2 and 1.5". Final.

I'm sounding like a warminista but screw winter and let's get this spring going. I just ordered a new roof rack for my bike and am ready to ride my azz off.

[daddylonglegs]

Chicago WX-

You should move to Land O' Lakes, WI... I guarantee cold! They were -16F the other morning.... I'm pretty sure its the coldest spot in Wisconsin. I swear they have seen 30F's in July.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLNL/2012/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html