kab2791 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Read more, post less... Don't know how accurate the gfs ensemble is but it shows below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Outside 2009, it's been a good run of snowy Februaries here lately. Looking back through history, good Februaries tend to run in bunches...for all intents and purposes. LAF area best February streaks below. Keep in mind, this isn't the snowiest place on earth. 1902: 12.1" 1903: 13.5" 1904: 12.2" 1905: 32.6" 1910: 10.0" 1911: 7.3" 1912: 17.2" 1913: 8.8" 1914: 18.4" 1960: 12.9" 1961: 9.0" 1962: 10.3" 1963: 12.4" 1964: 12.0" 1965: 9.8" 2007: 26.7" 2008: 18.3" 2009: 3.0" 2010: 14.0" 2011: 13.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm surprised this isnt getting more attention right now. I have been following the GFSs pattern change with every model run. At first the deep trough was like 300 hours out. At that range its a pipe dream. We are now down to 162 hours and its still there.... best of all it survived the resolution change at 180 hours. I'm seeing this as our first non transient cold pattern, best of all it looks like MAJOR lake effect!! Been getting my hands greasy fixing some snowmobiles and we are ready to roll on the western UP... This Feb 6th-8th timeframe major cold dump could be amazing!. I'll be in the western UP Monday the 13th through Friday the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Those maps verbatim really don't suggest below average temps. If you are above the 540 line doesn't that mean you usually are below freezing? Average temperature for my area is 40 degrees in February. looks near or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If you are above the 540 line doesn't that mean you usually are below freezing? Average temperature for my area is 40 degrees in February. looks near or below. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 no I thought it was, everyone starts ganging up on me as soon as I say one thing wrong. lol I guess I will make sure I am 100% sure on something before I post from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm surprised this isnt getting more attention right now. I have been following the GFSs pattern change with every model run. At first the deep trough was like 300 hours out. At that range its a pipe dream. We are now down to 162 hours and its still there.... best of all it survived the resolution change at 180 hours. I'm seeing this as our first non transient cold pattern, best of all it looks like MAJOR lake effect!! Been getting my hands greasy fixing some snowmobiles and we are ready to roll on the western UP... This Feb 6th-8th timeframe major cold dump could be amazing!. I'll be in the western UP Monday the 13th through Friday the 17th. Idk I think Warmups get more play round these parts Can't wait for some arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I believe they're essentially the same thing, as far as I know. Or you could say "permanent" ridging turns into a block. They are sort of different animals but can have similar results at times. With EPO ridging you can get better cross polar flow and you can still have major storms etc travel up this side of the apps. With a -NAO it is harder for storms to stay on this side of the apps. You can get similar results with both though and thus storms up along the eastcoast vs this side of apps wit a -EPO. Once you get this far north a -NAO can really start to hurt the cause ( like we saw last winter here/W.MI and N.MI ) and why i don't prefer it. Like anything you have exceptions and thus see 77-78 and the blizzard. Also you can end up with above normal temps in the N.GL over into New England with a -NAO as the coldest stuff tends to get pushed further south and east and thus sometimes missing those areas and they end up with more of a flow off the warmer waters be it N.Atlantic etc. The EPO can have a much larger impact on the country as a whole vs -NAO which mainly affects areas from near the Plains/MS River on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Next weekend looks nasty here.... Low 30's and a lot of precip... something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I thought it was, everyone starts ganging up on me as soon as I say one thing wrong. lol I guess I will make sure I am 100% sure on something before I post from here on out. I think questions are good - its how you learn, especially in general topics. One word responses aren't useful though... Anyway, to answer your question... the "540 line" is just a rough rule of thumb. Though, honestly, I find it a poor indicator of ptype. The quantity doesn't measure temperature so you actually have to look at the temperature profile. More reading: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/148/ I'd also suggest: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints I've learned quite a bit off that site and just reading posts from the more knowledgeable folks on this forum over the past several years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Nice post, blue. Nice to see somone help him out instead just polluting the thread with another he should be 5 posted, blah, blah blah from the usual forum mall cops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If you are above the 540 line doesn't that mean you usually are below freezing? Average temperature for my area is 40 degrees in February. looks near or below. You're better off looking at 850 mb temperature anomaly maps (which are avaialble at the same site you posted images from) to try to figure out if it's going to be below average but even the anomaly maps may not tell the whole story depending on the setup (shallow arctic airmass for example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 +2.2 with temps and 9.3" of snow for LAF in February. At least that's my WAG. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 NAEFS is showing warming into Alaska in the extended range...can only mean colder times ahead for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 NAEFS is showing warming into Alaska in the extended range...can only mean colder times ahead for us... "Yup, a facebook friend in Alaska (who posts here sometimes) posted this on my fb the other day: "Will see if I can send you some energy for storms as the pattern is undergoing a major change up here....maybe I will melt my 15 inch snow pack." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Nice post, blue. Nice to see somone help him out instead just polluting the thread with another he should be 5 posted, blah, blah blah from the usual forum mall cops. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 NAEFS is showing warming into Alaska in the extended range...can only mean colder times ahead for us... Unfortunately the coldest anomolies always seem two weeks away. Almost everytime I check the Huffman weather model page, the darkest blues are in the 11-15 day range. Even this weekend is looking warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Unfortunately the coldest anomolies always seem two weeks away. Almost everytime I check the Huffman weather model page, the darkest blues are in the 11-15 day range. Even this weekend is looking warm. go out and enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 " Yup, a facebook friend in Alaska (who posts here sometimes) posted this on my fb the other day: "Will see if I can send you some energy for storms as the pattern is undergoing a major change up here....maybe I will melt my 15 inch snow pack." Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This week is going to be Pacific flow before there is a low pressure that passes through central Michigan. The polar flow starts after that. We have 150 hours before this all happens. 190+ hours till the arctic front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Larry Cosgrove ... "Friday looks to be very stormy across OK, TX, LA, AR with severe weather and flooding rainfall potential. As for the cold air....yes colder across the eastern two-thirds of the nation but nothing extreme. The most interesting storm threat is February 11 - 15 across the Old South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard. Milder weather returns second half of February in most of U.S." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Larry Cosgrove ... "Friday looks to be very stormy across OK, TX, LA, AR with severe weather and flooding rainfall potential. As for the cold air....yes colder across the eastern two-thirds of the nation but nothing extreme. The most interesting storm threat is February 11 - 15 across the Old South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard. Milder weather returns second half of February in most of U.S." Classic tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Unusually detailed long range disco from BUF. Seems superficially good, but +PNA with a PV over Hudson Bay screams cold and dry to me. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALLOW A POLAR VORTEX TO DEVELOP ON OUR SIDE OF THE GLOBE AND GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH TO HUDSON BAY BY DAY 10. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ IS NEGATIVE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AT LEAST. THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION /PNA/ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD WITH A MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. NORMALLY A NEGATIVE AO AND POSITIVE PNA WOULD BRING COLD TO OUR REGION...HOWEVER THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ HAS BEEN STUCK IN PHASE 5 AND 6 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT THROUGH MOST OF THE WINTER...WHICH CORRELATES STRONGLY TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. LATEST GEFS RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EMERGENCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE MJO CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...AND ALSO FORECAST THE MJO CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH REGION 7 AND TOWARDS REGION 8 DURING THE SECOND WEEK IN FEBRUARY. A SIGNIFICANT SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT JUST FINISHED UP LAST WEEK...AND THE EFFECTS THAT HAS ON THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX GRADUALLY TRICKLE DOWN TO THE TROPOSPHERE AND CAN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND NEGATIVE AO/NAO ABOUT 3 WEEKS LATER. IF THE MJO TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOLLOWING THE STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT WERE TO VERIFY...EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COLDER AND MORE WINTRY WEATHER DURING THE 2ND WEEK IN FEBRUARY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Got to love this model battle/changes/disagreement right now. The big question is will we get some real cold or not in Feb.??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 We will get some cold... But transient. If you like snow with a 36 hour shelf life, then you might be in luck this month. Every cold pattern has fallen apart within 150 hours with winter.... The pacific just won't relent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm starting to think that was it... The coldest wx we have seen, is what we are going to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Forcasters are going to have to rethink what a la Nina or el Nino really means. I have seen better winters with el Nino then this. This is the worst winter I have experienced to date in my life. I really think its just a random set of events based off various feedbacks. Right now there's something out there, maybe snow in Asia or warmth in Nigeria that'd causing the pacific flaw to be relentless. I think the Pacific waters at the equator has next to nothing to do with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 When summer hits in the northern hemisphere and winter in the southern hemisphere there will be a sort of reset button hit on whatever is causing this... Untill then winter isn't going to resemble normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Forcasters are going to have to rethink what a la Nina or el Nino really means. I have seen better winters with el Nino then this. This is the worst winter I have experienced to date in my life. I really think its just a random set of events based off various feedbacks. Right now there's something out there, maybe snow in Asia or warmth in Nigeria that'd causing the pacific flaw to be relentless. I think the Pacific waters at the equator has next to nothing to do with this. 97-98 fwiw was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 97-98 fwiw was awful. Yeah that was bad! Rain storms in the middle of January! Our spell of winter in January occurred when the MJO approached Phase 7. Didn't quite make it, but it shows what needs to happen to get winter back! There's a great thread on it in main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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