snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 80s were pretty good here...interesting that they were poor elsewhere. Looking at Detroits decadal averages, you see that the real lull was mid-20th century. It may be an interesting project for you to look into Torontos 19th century snow records. Any snow depth records to back it up? 1880s 47.3” 1890s 42.7” 1900s 46.3” 1910s 39.7” 1920s 46.1” 1930s 32.9” 1940s 27.6” 1950s 37.8” 1960s 31.8” 1970s 45.6” 1980s 45.2” 1990s 37.2” 2000s 45.3” That's interesting. I thought the 80s were universally crappy. There was a lull in 30s and maybe 50s from the fat times of the early 20th century, but still not worse than the 1980s here in Toronto. And nope. The downtown station didn't start recording snowdepth until 1955. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That is a good point, whether its a good winter ("its been great, but im snowed out, bring on spring") or a bad winter ("i cant stand it, just bring on spring and end this misery")....people just seem to think March 1st signals instant spring. Outside of 2008, Marches have been fairly boring lately...people forget what March can really bring, especially north of I-80. And no, I dont mean a wet snow that melts in 1 day or "better hope the snow falls at night for it to stick"..those are things we should start to say April 1st, not March 1st. We need a big, widespread, cold, powdery March snowstorm around here to fix some of these thoughts! I've never seen a powdery snow in March my entire life. Yes there have been big storms, but they resume melting the next day and are typically wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 See post above, clearly there were some mis-communications with the meaning. Clearly "spring" means something very bad here...my mistake. You're fine, I get what you're saying. It's just we've (the winter crew) have had to put up with "bring on spring" since freakin' January in this forum. Some are from frustrated winter fans no doubt, but there's also the troll crowd that hates winter. As for the latter...you know, if you don't like the season...then don't post. Pretty simple. It's a weather board, not Better Homes And Gardens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That is a good point, whether its a good winter ("its been great, but im snowed out, bring on spring") or a bad winter ("i cant stand it, just bring on spring and end this misery")....people just seem to think March 1st signals instant spring. Outside of 2008, Marches have been fairly boring lately...people forget what March can really bring, especially north of I-80. And no, I dont mean a wet snow that melts in 1 day or "better hope the snow falls at night for it to stick"..those are things we should start to say April 1st, not March 1st. We need a big, widespread, cold, powdery March snowstorm around here to fix some of these thoughts! Yes this what I was exactly trying to say...spring storms are unique and there undoubtedly is an increase in potential energy as the solar angle increases...which can be a benefit for potential storms. Spring does not have to mean bad connotations. I think some here are too quick to jump on folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Early spring severe weather enthusiasts will approve of this. Approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I've never seen a powdery snow in March my entire life. Yes there have been big storms, but they resume melting the next day and are typically wet. March 23, 2011 was pure powder here. Twas late March too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is, undoubtedly, the protypical example of what I was talking about regarding spring storms. One of the coolest cyclones of 2011, a large severe outbreak across the southern plains (unfortunately deadly in parts of OK) and a crippling blizzard in NE/KS. April/15th is a classic and one of my favorite storms in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Great pic. Love the texture of those Cbs along the coldfront. Actually reached out and touched my screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Great pic. Love the texture of those Cbs along the coldfront. Actually reached out and touched my screen. A true beauty, and something truly unique. It was a classic "NW trend" event, and it was poorly modeled by guidance, but a classic type of feedback event that models always bust. I am actually just beginning to write about this beauty as a local office case study, but I want to tie it into a larger goal to discuss rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis (and the implications) and how forecasters can improve these forecasts. We will see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 March 23, 2011 was pure powder here. Twas late March too. I have seen tons of March powder snowfalls/snowstorms. Yes they melt faster than in Jan, but still, anyone in this region is flatout lying if they say they havet seen powder snow in March. The March 21/22, 2008 snowstorm was my favorite spring powder....but the latest Ive ever seen was April 7, 2003, 5 inches of powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is, undoubtedly, the protypical example of what I was talking about regarding spring storms. One of the coolest cyclones of 2011, a large severe outbreak across the southern plains (unfortunately deadly in parts of OK) and a crippling blizzard in NE/KS. April/15th is a classic and one of my favorite storms in years. Outstanding image right there! I'd love to have a huge print of that hanging on the living room wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just one more and I'll stop. Milwaukee's stats, as per the same method I used for Boston and Chicago. Tim, another idea I have to throw at you...since you always make those nice graphs and stuff...it would be cool to see a table of decadal snowfall averages...not trying to give you more work, its just your stat posts are second to none. Already have ORD, MKE, and DTW in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Tim, another idea I have to throw at you...since you always make those nice graphs and stuff...it would be cool to see a table of decadal snowfall averages...not trying to give you more work, its just your stat posts are second to none. Already have ORD, MKE, and DTW in this thread. Another good idea. I'll see if I can get to it in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Regarding the spring snow talk...I did a writeup on spring snowstorms in Detroit a few years ago, and since 1880 there have been 58 snowstorms of 3"+ on or after March 20th, which is almost 1 every other year. Also, in the past 100 meteorological springs (Mar/Apr) there have been 23 snowstorms of 6"+. Even without a 6"+ snowstorm, March 2009 and 2010 were extreme anamolies, you want to bet on it, expect at least one 3"+ snowstorm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Another good idea. I'll see if I can get to it in the next couple of days. Do you want me to recalculate Detroits decadal averages making sure its the same consistency as the others (ie 2001-02 thru 2010-11) or do you have a fast way of doing that with your spreadsheets and stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, I'm coming to the realization that, overall, it hasn't been as bad as it's felt. But some of negatives don't show up in the numbers. For the abundance of snow in 2010-11, we got screwed out of 3 major snowstorms within 36 hours of the events. We haven't seen an 8" snowstorm in 5 years. The last 2 "bad" winters have been excruciatingly bad, not just mundane "bad". So I don't think my displeasure over what's going on has been unwarranted. There's some subtext here. Yes it is kind of sad. The Dec 08 storm was actually 8" at YYZ and most of the GTA, but were long overdue. Since then we've seen storms mostly under 8" and Winters like 2009-10 the heaviest one day storm brought a mere 5" at best. The groundhog blizzard last February and the March storm were really close however. 2009-10 was really horrible and I'm amazed that we have another horrible Winter in just 2 years, incredible. The fact that 2009-10 actually had storms and despite them not hitting us they were fun to observe on the models but this year....nothing.....absolutely nothing. Its been a boring Winter from Vancouver to St. Johns with the exception of Alaska and FAR Northern Canada. If next Winter isnt atleast near normal I will seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is, undoubtedly, the protypical example of what I was talking about regarding spring storms. One of the coolest cyclones of 2011, a large severe outbreak across the southern plains (unfortunately deadly in parts of OK) and a crippling blizzard in NE/KS. April/15th is a classic and one of my favorite storms in years. That looks so sick. Amazing coma, quite the well formed storms. You can observe the cloud heights rising with widespread t-storms, just beautiful. I doubt we'll come anywhere close to that this year esp if the northern tier continues to remain way above normal. Last year we had a classic Warm South and Cold North temperature gradient which created an amazing start to the severe wx season. This storm dropped a inch of rain in my area followed by a decent cool down by April Standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The latest 0z Nam looks quite a bit different than the 12/18z Nam based on the vort maps and the placements of the vort energy. Lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 bring on spring post over and over gets nauseating this time of yr and it happens no matter how good or bad the winter has been. For christ sake its been spring all winter... Take your effin bring on spring wishes and cram them in here http://www.americanw...er-speculation/ Nah. Every season is equal. Problem is this forum consists mostly of winter weather fanatics/weenies . This creates a divide against the minority of non winter folks. There is nothing wrong with preferring an early spring or torch. March is the start of Met spring for reason. Yes it can snow but the trend from march 1st on is a slow or fast decline from the previous winter weather. FWIW march 08 and 10 were compete flukes and it does help if the snow happens at night in mid/late March there is no backing away from the higher sun angle. Neither is spring near or is winter finished. We have a little time left in this boring latent period of persistent 40s and lake clouds FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What was the latest measurable snow in the Detroit area on record?? In my eyes winter is fair game until April 17th or so. Then the plows and salters are removed, washed, greased and stored inside until Nov 15th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The latest 0z Nam looks quite a bit different than the 12/18z Nam based on the vort maps and the placements of the vort energy. Lets see. No chance. We needed that strong piece of vorticity that brings us some -SN late tomorrow night to at least partially phase with the southern stream s/w. That lagging energy over the northern Plains isn't going to be sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Do you want me to recalculate Detroits decadal averages making sure its the same consistency as the others (ie 2001-02 thru 2010-11) or do you have a fast way of doing that with your spreadsheets and stuff? Thanks, but yeah I've got them in my spreadsheets. I'll probably have it done by tomorrow night...shouldn't take too much time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 No chance. We needed that strong piece of vorticity that brings us some -SN late tomorrow night to at least partially phase with the southern stream s/w. That lagging energy over the northern Plains isn't going to be sufficient. I swear to god if the Mid Atlantic or the NE get a snowstorm out of this, I will snap. This is just brutal and painful. 3 years in a row is bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I swear to god if the Mid Atlantic or the NE get a snowstorm out of this, I will snap. This is just brutal and painful. 3 years in a row is bad enough. NE is facing the same hurdles we are. MA, maybe has a shot. But it's pretty progressive and mostly southern stream. I'm thinking if there's enough cold air, perhaps a stripe of 3-6/4-8. Not a blockbuster by any stretch. Not that I wouldn't love to see a 3-6/4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NE is facing the same hurdles we are. MA, maybe has a shot. But it's pretty progressive and mostly southern stream. I'm thinking if there's enough cold air, perhaps a stripe of 3-6/4-8. Not a blockbuster by any stretch. Not that I wouldn't love to see a 3-6/4-8 Hey they've had there fun for the past TWO years, so they see one horrible Winter, so what. We havent seen a single good storm since 08. Next Winter better be a ice age haha. 3-6" or 4-8" is alot considering they had that October storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hey they've had there fun for the past TWO years, so they see one horrible Winter, so what. We havent seen a single good storm since 08. Next Winter better be a ice age haha. 3-6" or 4-8" is alot considering they had that October storm too. Sorry, by MA I meant Mid Atlantic not Massachusetts. I don't think New England is going to get much from this, except for maybe Cape Cod. Congrats to our KY posters on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I have to disagree with most of this. If anything, its the mid-atlantic thats basically stayed true to form. Since the beginning of records they seem to be one of those places where one year they will get buried in several big snowstorms (ala 2009-10) and then the next several years will see next to nothing. Its actually the Great Lakes and New England region that have seen consistently snowier winters the last decade. I honestly dont know what the heck is going on in Toronto (altho...it has only gotten bad since 2009-10, no?).....but I just dont see how the trend will continue. It sounds so stupid to say, but honestly, it just seems like a recurrent case of horrible luck. If places surrounding Toronto on both sides (Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, New York, Boston, Burlington) have seen such above normal snowfall in recent years, and Toronto is a traditionally snowy city anyway, it just doesnt make any logical sense. Toronto's position relative to the Appalachian Mountains certainly doesn't help. In many cases a storm would have to literally ride the spine of the mountains for them to get a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Go for it lol. Just remember, I got no reward for forecasting such an outstanding Feb 2011, so if Mar 2012 snowstorm busts, be gentle I'll spot you February 2011. But to be fair, you pretty much nailed that one out of luck, if anything. I mean really, there was a 1 in over 100 chance of that type of February happening, especially considering we had one JUST AS SNOWY before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sorry, by MA I meant Mid Atlantic not Massachusetts. I don't think New England is going to get much from this, except for maybe Cape Cod. Congrats to our KY posters on the 0z NAM. Yes congrats to them. The Mid Atlantic had 3-4 blizzards in 09-10, each well over 12".That basically subjects to 2-3 Winters. Either way, were way overdue and Mother Nature needs to stop sparing us because this is just brutal. In fact the avg snowfall since 2009-10 to present date stands at 85.3cm (33.6)......well below normal. No decent LES either. This Winter makes 2006-07 and 2001-02 look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 not too often when a 998 surface low over Northern AL can't get precip north of Cincy, but it is this winter, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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