michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Early spring severe weather enthusiasts will approve of this. Snow lovers who know CPC's track record will approve even more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 BTW only 0.20" of rain this morning. Just piles, snowbanks, and a few drifts remain. But I have to say its getting quite comical how this winter most of the snow events have overperformed and most of the rain events underperformed (I can think of 1 exception on each side). Yet another wtf in this crazy winter. Why couldnt we get that recipe the last 5 winters, LOL wed have probably seen 90-120" winters instead of 60-80" ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sweet Jesus. March 2010 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That fact has helped me cope with this winter up until recently. But lately I've found it's been giving little comfort. Outrageously, scandalously, inconceivably bad winter. Calling it a nightmare would be an insult to nightmares. More like a night terror winter. ugh, I'm choking on my own rage over here. Whats helping me cope is that Im going to the UP the first weekend of March. Right now Sault Ste Marie has a depth of 14"....I will take that in a heartbeat! I also know weve been doing somewhat "better" than most. The hardest part for me is thinking of how awesome last winter was and how forecasts this past fall, nearly across the board, were making it sound like this winter would be even harsher (the almanac said Chicagoans would be so snowed out theyd want to relocate by spring). As much as it kills me to say this, at least here, we were due for one of these winters. The fun had to end sometime, just wish it wasnt in such a cruel way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Snow lovers who know CPC's track record will approve even more! CPC and EC both have been spot on with regards to the outlooks during this current winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I have to disagree with most of this. If anything, its the mid-atlantic thats basically stayed true to form. Since the beginning of records they seem to be one of those places where one year they will get buried in several big snowstorms (ala 2009-10) and then the next several years will see next to nothing. Its actually the Great Lakes and New England region that have seen consistently snowier winters the last decade. I honestly dont know what the heck is going on in Toronto (altho...it has only gotten bad since 2009-10, no?).....but I just dont see how the trend will continue. It sounds so stupid to say, but honestly, it just seems like a recurrent case of horrible luck. If places surrounding Toronto on both sides (Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, New York, Boston, Burlington) have seen such above normal snowfall in recent years, and Toronto is a traditionally snowy city anyway, it just doesnt make any logical sense. Have you verified Burlington and Boston have been getting snowier? I've been meaning to check that out but haven't yet. And yes, the real bad winters have been very recent. 2011-12 (I think it's safe to start drawing some conclusions about this winter) + 2009-10. But even 2005-06, 2006-07 were partial disasters, featuring historic or near historic record lows in snowfall for at least 1-2 months in the cold weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well, the trend has been for increasingly snow free winters. If you were a betting person, I'd bet that next winter will see more of the same. It seems that over the past decade the Mid-Atlantic has been getting snowier while we've been seeing less snow (with regard to our averages of course). The funny thing is that peoplel ike JB, whose clietele largely reside in areas that have seen increased snowfall on average over the past decade, has people believing that winters are getting harsher when in reality the areas that have traditionally seen harsh winters on average are now seeing their winters gradually become less harsh. lol to Mid-Atlantic winters getting snowier. 7.4" 3.2" 40.4" 12.4" 12.5" 13.6" 9.5" 4.9" 7.5" 56.1" 10.1" 1981-10 average: 14.5" That's DCA season snowfall since 2000-01. A whopping two whole winters that were above average in the last eleven. Five of them have been in the single digits. We can do PHL, BWI, and the rest if you wish. Go into the Mid-Atlantic forum and ask all of them how harsh the winters have been over the last decade. Or better yet, look at the long term snowfall at DCA for yourself: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcasnow.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 CPC and EC both have been spot on with regards to the outlooks during this current winter Maybe with their 8-14 day outlooks, but I remember in Fall they had the winter outlooks and deep blue was invading the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would say at this point this Feb has been nothing compared to 2002. Although if an end of the month historic torch happens this observation might change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Maybe with their 8-14 day outlooks, but I remember in Fall they had the winter outlooks and deep blue was invading the country They bombed hardcore but the 8-14 and 1 month outlooks have been perfection for a while minus a few misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 CPC and EC both have been spot on with regards to the outlooks during this current winter Not that impressive when its just been persistence persistence persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not that impressive when its just been persistence persistence persistence. Yeah. Do I dare say this winter has been a tad easy to forecast. It's been a dominate split flow and raging PAC. The rest of details fall right in line. Winter raged big time in western Europe while at the same time we had persistent torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Have you verified Burlington and Boston have been getting snowier? I've been meaning to check that out but haven't yet. Boston season snowfall decade averages, just because I have them handy (starting with last winter and working backwards) 2001-02 to 2010-11: 50.4" 1991-92 to 2000-01: 50.9" 1981-82 to 1990-91: 35.1" 1971-72 to 1980-81: 37.5" 1961-62 to 1970-71: 49.8" 1951-52 to 1960-61: 41.2" 1941-42 to 1950-51: 41.5" 1931-32 to 1940-41: 38.8" 1921-22 to 1930-31: 39.7" 1911-12 to 1920-21: 42.0" 1901-02 to 1910-11: 43.3" 1891-92 to 1900-01: 47.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Have you verified Burlington and Boston have been getting snowier? I've been meaning to check that out but haven't yet. And yes, the real bad winters have been very recent. 2011-12 (I think it's safe to start drawing some conclusions about this winter) + 2009-10. But even 2005-06, 2006-07 were partial disasters, featuring historic or near historic record lows in snowfall for at least 1-2 months in the cold weather season. Well, Boston certainly sees the stinker pop-up (again though, they are more prone to a real snowless winter than Detroit or Chicago). In fact, this is on pace to possibly be their 3rd sub-20" winter this century (15" in 01-02 and 17" in 06-07, just 7.8" to date so far in 11-12). But per ORH (great stats guy for new england) Boston has seen an uptick in avg snowfall, esp with the new 81-10 normals. And a look at Burlingtons snowfall page shows snowfall way above normal Although the main thing that baffles is its the last 4 years that really stick out. Average snowfall the last 4 winters, compared to the 1981-2010 NOWdata average. New York 38.2" (avg 26.7"...or +11.5") Boston 53.3" (avg 45.1"...or +8.2") Burlington 109.1" (avg 84.7"...or +24.4") Toronto 50.2" Detroit 62.6" (avg 43.8"...or +18.8") Chicago 56.3" (avg 36.3"...or +20.0") Milwaukee 68.8" (avg 50.0"...or +18.8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah. Do I dare say this winter has been a tad easy to forecast. It's been a dominate split flow and raging PAC. The rest of details fall right in line. Winter raged big time in western Europe while at the same time we had persistent torches. Once things actually got going its been easy, but the number of seasonal forecasts that busted badly is telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would say at this point this Feb has been nothing compared to 2002. Although if an end of the month historic torch happens this observation might change. Nothing will touch Feb 1998. It was constantly mild, cloudy, rainy, and literally snowless. Feb 2002 did have a decent snowfall on the 26th (4-5") but had lots of sunny days and also a few real torch days (in fact it hit 61 the day before our snowstorm). Meanwhile Feb 2012 started out mild but the snowstorm of Feb 10/11 actually was followed by a brutal winter day (temps in teens, blowing snow and below zero wind chills all day), that alone is something neither Feb 2002 or 1998 had. That was actually the most extreme day, as there havent any real torches this month, just peristent mild with a very cold weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Have you verified Burlington and Boston have been getting snowier? I've been meaning to check that out but haven't yet. And yes, the real bad winters have been very recent. 2011-12 (I think it's safe to start drawing some conclusions about this winter) + 2009-10. But even 2005-06, 2006-07 were partial disasters, featuring historic or near historic record lows in snowfall for at least 1-2 months in the cold weather season. Hey Canuck Feb 11 remains as 2.2mm of rain and a trace of snow with a high temp that day at 19.2F LOL. EC continues to bullsh!t. How can it rain with temps that cold, unbelievable. Its Feb 16 today and still no change. BTW, not all Winters since 01-02 have been bad. Here's a look at the winter snowfall totals since this century began at North York since YYZ is bull crap. 00-01: 181.2cm (71.3") 01-02: 93cm (36.6") 02-03: 152.2cm (59.9") 03-04: 108.2cm (42.6") near avg. cold January 04-05: 165.3cm (65.1") 05-06: 107.3cm (42.2') near avg....amazing start. 06-07: 83.4cm (32.8") 07-08: 232.7cm (91.6") Now tell me, how the f*ck did YYZ only record 6" for the March Blizzard but this double that? dont even get me started about the final winter totals. 08-09: 196.5cm (77.4")....even this is above 07-08 at YYZ yet 2008-09 wasn't as snowy as 2007-08??? 09-10: 60.2cm (23.7") Decade Avg: 138cm (54.3").....thats a good 15cm above normal or 6". New Decade 10-11: 152.6cm (60.1").....close to mine lol 11-12: 44.2cm (17.4")....thus far So as you can see above with the exception of 01-02, 06-07 and 09-10 this past decade wasnt bad at all. Since the PDO shifted back in 2007, 3 Winters have been good, 2 bad. I'll look back at other shifts the PDO had and the Winters surrounding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Have you verified Burlington and Boston have been getting snowier? I've been meaning to check that out but haven't yet. And yes, the real bad winters have been very recent. 2011-12 (I think it's safe to start drawing some conclusions about this winter) + 2009-10. But even 2005-06, 2006-07 were partial disasters, featuring historic or near historic record lows in snowfall for at least 1-2 months in the cold weather season. I have to agree with SSC. Two of the past 3 winters in central and SW Ont. have been absolutely terrible if you like snow. 2009-2010 may have been OK in Michigan, but they weren't around here. It either set or almost set a futility record for snow in London, and Toronto was even worse. Winter has been a non-issue for the majority of the recent years in Toronto. The only thing that saves me is LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Boston season snowfall decade averages, just because I have them handy (starting with last winter and working backwards) 2001-02 to 2010-11: 50.4" 1991-92 to 2000-01: 50.9" 1981-82 to 1990-91: 35.1" 1971-72 to 1980-81: 37.5" 1961-62 to 1970-71: 49.8" 1951-52 to 1960-61: 41.2" 1941-42 to 1950-51: 41.5" 1931-32 to 1940-41: 38.8" 1921-22 to 1930-31: 39.7" 1911-12 to 1920-21: 42.0" 1901-02 to 1910-11: 43.3" 1891-92 to 1900-01: 47.1" Not too surprising. Has the typical 80s lull, with a rebound in the 90s and 00s. Late 19th century wasn't particularly snowy though, unlike Toronto. I'm starting to think those extremely snowy #s for downtown Toronto in the late 1800s are suspect. For Toronto (Pearson), recently: 1980-1981 to 1989-90: 39.8" 1990-1991 to 1999-00: 45.4" 2000-2001 to 2010-11: 45.9" So a similar trend. Add ~4" to account for Pearson's poor measuring and it's not really that bad. It's a shame because if 2009-10 and 2011-12 were just regular bad instead of historic bad, we would have seen even better improvements in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You'd think I'd be able to extract some joy from the fact that I'm living through an unprecedentedly bad winter. Just from the novelty of it. You'd think. This has been the most spectacularly boring and disastrous winter I can ever remember. Not just IMBY wise (although for western NE we aren't far from climo...I am just not used to high plains winter), but across the U.S CONUS. Literally nothing to track anywhere. I can usually be appeased with storms tracking across the east coast or into the OV/Midwest, but there has been nothing but southern stream anomalies (congrats Texas and Colorado Front Range). Junk elsewhere. Bring on spring. Medium range is beginning to catch my interest even if the storms may be warm. I need cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hey Canuck Feb 11 remains as 2.2mm of rain and a trace of snow with a high temp that day at 19.2F LOL. EC continues to bullsh!t. How can it rain with temps that cold, unbelievable. Its Feb 16 today and still no change. BTW, not all Winters since 01-02 have been bad. Here's a look at the winter snowfall totals since this century began at North York since YYZ is bull crap. 00-01: 181.2cm (71.3") 01-02: 93cm (36.6") 02-03: 152.2cm (59.9") 03-04: 108.2cm (42.6") near avg. cold January 04-05: 165.3cm (65.1") 05-06: 107.3cm (42.2') near avg....amazing start. 06-07: 83.4cm (32.8") 07-08: 232.7cm (91.6") Now tell me, how the f*ck did YYZ only record 6" for the March Blizzard but this double that? dont even get me started about the final winter totals. 08-09: 196.5cm (77.4")....even this is above 07-08 at YYZ yet 2008-09 wasn't as snowy as 2007-08??? 09-10: 60.2cm (23.7") Decade Avg: 138cm (54.3").....thats a good 15cm above normal or 6". New Decade 10-11: 152.6cm (60.1").....close to mine lol 11-12: 44.2cm (17.4")....thus far So as you can see above with the exception of 01-02, 06-07 and 09-10 this past decade wasnt bad at all. Since the PDO shifted back in 2007, 3 Winters have been good, 2 bad. I'll look back at other shifts the PDO had and the Winters surrounding it. Yeah, I'm coming to the realization that, overall, it hasn't been as bad as it's felt. But some of negatives don't show up in the numbers. For the abundance of snow in 2010-11, we got screwed out of 3 major snowstorms within 36 hours of the events. We haven't seen an 8" snowstorm in 5 years. The last 2 "bad" winters have been excruciatingly bad, not just mundane "bad". So I don't think my displeasure over what's going on has been unwarranted. There's some subtext here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not too surprising. Has the typical 80s lull, with a rebound in the 90s and 00s. Late 19th century wasn't particularly snowy though, unlike Toronto. I'm starting to think those extremely snowy #s for downtown Toronto in the late 1800s are suspect. For Toronto (Pearson), recently: 1980-1981 to 1989-90: 39.8" 1990-1991 to 1999-00: 45.4" 2000-2001 to 2010-11: 45.9" So a similar trend. Add ~4" to account for Pearson's poor measuring and it's not really that bad. It's a shame because if 2009-10 and 2011-12 were just regular bad instead of historic bad, we would have seen even better improvements in the last decade. The 80s were pretty good here...interesting that they were poor elsewhere. Looking at Detroits decadal averages, you see that the real lull was mid-20th century. It may be an interesting project for you to look into Torontos 19th century snow records. Any snow depth records to back it up? 1880s 47.3” 1890s 42.7” 1900s 46.3” 1910s 39.7” 1920s 46.1” 1930s 32.9” 1940s 27.6” 1950s 37.8” 1960s 31.8” 1970s 45.6” 1980s 45.2” 1990s 37.2” 2000s 45.3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 bring on spring post over and over gets nauseating this time of yr and it happens no matter how good or bad the winter has been. For christ sake its been spring all winter... Take your effin bring on spring wishes and cram them in here http://www.americanw...er-speculation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not too surprising. Has the typical 80s lull, with a rebound in the 90s and 00s. Late 19th century wasn't particularly snowy though, unlike Toronto. I'm starting to think those extremely snowy #s for downtown Toronto in the late 1800s are suspect. For Toronto (Pearson), recently: 1980-1981 to 1989-90: 39.8" 1990-1991 to 1999-00: 45.4" 2000-2001 to 2010-11: 45.9" So a similar trend. Add ~4" to account for Pearson's poor measuring and it's not really that bad. It's a shame because if 2009-10 and 2011-12 were just regular bad instead of historic bad, we would have seen even better improvements in the last decade. Yeah some of those older numbers for Toronto look a little questionable. Of course I know little to nothing of the climate there outside of snowfall statistics. Here's the same deal for Chicago. Though it may not be a fair fight (comparison) considering everything from 1942 and back is from sites close to the Lakefront. Regardless... 2001-02 to 2010-11: 41.1" 1991-92 to 2000-01: 35.6" 1981-82 to 1990-91: 36.7" 1971-72 to 1980-81: 53.7" 1961-62 to 1970-71: 46.2" 1951-52 to 1960-61: 37.5" 1941-42 to 1950-51: 33.3" 1931-32 to 1940-41: 32.7" 1921-22 to 1930-31: 30.4" 1911-12 to 1920-21: 29.1" 1901-02 to 1910-11: 34.5" 1891-92 to 1900-01: 39.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 bring on spring post over and over gets nauseating this time of yr and it happens no matter how good or bad the winter has been. For christ sake its been spring all winter... Take your effin bring on spring wishes and cram them in here http://www.americanw...er-speculation/ +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 bring on spring post over and over gets nauseating this time of yr and it happens no matter how good or bad the winter has been. For christ sake its been spring all winter... Take your effin bring on spring wishes and cram them in here http://www.americanw...er-speculation/ I haven't been lamenting winter all year long with you guys, but I guess "bring on spring" has a different meaning for me since spring baroclinic storms are probably the most exciting events all year long across the northern hemisphere. Severe weather and signficant winter storms all in one, undoubtedly the best time of year for big storm fanatics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How are the palms? Green and ready to resume growing. 30 days or less and protection comes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 +100 See post above, clearly there were some mis-communications with the meaning. Clearly "spring" means something very bad here...my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 bring on spring post over and over get nauseating this time of yr and it happens no matter how good or bad the winter has been. For christ sake its been spring all winter... Take you effin bring on spring wishes and cram them in here http://www.americanw...er-speculation/ That is a good point, whether its a good winter ("its been great, but im snowed out, bring on spring") or a bad winter ("i cant stand it, just bring on spring and end this misery")....people just seem to think March 1st signals instant spring. Outside of 2008, Marches have been fairly boring lately...people forget what March can really bring, especially north of I-80. And no, I dont mean a wet snow that melts in 1 day or "better hope the snow falls at night for it to stick"..those are things we should start to say April 1st, not March 1st. We need a big, widespread, cold, powdery March snowstorm around here to fix some of these thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just one more and I'll stop. Milwaukee's stats, as per the same method I used for Boston and Chicago. 2001-02 to 2010-11: 52.1" 1991-92 to 2000-01: 50.8" 1981-82 to 1990-91: 46.2" 1971-72 to 1980-81: 56.9" 1961-62 to 1970-71: 46.4" 1951-52 to 1960-61: 46.2" 1941-42 to 1950-51: 40.9" 1931-32 to 1940-41: 37.6" 1921-22 to 1930-31: 50.6" 1911-12 to 1920-21: 40.6" 1901-02 to 1910-11: 48.7" 1891-92 to 1900-01: 52.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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