weatherbo Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I feel like the "cold and snow is coming" train is running out of track. I think Feb will be warm with the same swings we've seen in Jan. What I do feel more confindent on is a cold and rainy Spring in the Great lakes and I detest them,and they can last well into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Well it looks like we may just have a weekend with some periods of light snow. I'll take whatever we can get. I remember that dreadful winter of 82-83 so far this winter is not that bad (heck we didn't have snow to play in until later March that year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I feel like the "cold and snow is coming" train is running out of track. I think Feb will be warm with the same swings we've seen in Jan. What I do feel more confindent on is a cold and rainy Spring in the Great lakes and I detest them,and they can last well into May. Or the complete opposite of last year. We are "due" for dry torchy spring. Something along the lines of spring 2010. Yes it was niño year but look at our La niño pattern this year. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Might as well watch paint dry. The 0z GFS was boring. Looks like a quasi more of the same pattern. Looks like some torching really ramps up. One exception would be around late next week. Something looks like it might go up the coast slamming NY-Bos or roll back into the apps giving the eastern lakes a fighting chance. Meanwhile the 6z GFS is wintry with a few snowstorms and quite a bit of cold air. Whatever train you are riding (the "pattern just HAS to change" one, or the "the consistency of this crappy pattern weve had all winter is not changing"), one things for sure...the longrange models will throw everything at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Well it looks like we may just have a weekend with some periods of light snow. I'll take whatever we can get. I remember that dreadful winter of 82-83 so far this winter is not that bad (heck we didn't have snow to play in until later March that year). This could be the 3rd weekend in a row that may be snowy/wintry (though probably not as wintry as the last 2). Last weekend we totaled 3.3" of snow Thurs-Sat and our coldest air of the winter, the weekend before we totaled 4.2" of snow on Fri-Sat. I guess if we are going to be in such a pathetic pattern, the weekend is the best time to get our flashes of winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Fixed. Why the quotations around "start"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 +PNA/-EPO pattern means nice cold (maybe "colder" is more apposite term? PV locked up north of 60 so it doesn't really look that cold) dry troughiness over the lakes with the EC possibily cashing in on a stormier pattern. FML. I hear suicide is painless, and it brings on many changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 This could be the 3rd weekend in a row that may be snowy/wintry (though probably not as wintry as the last 2). Last weekend we totaled 3.3" of snow Thurs-Sat and our coldest air of the winter, the weekend before we totaled 4.2" of snow on Fri-Sat. I guess if we are going to be in such a pathetic pattern, the weekend is the best time to get our flashes of winter weather! In a winter like this you take what you can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 +PNA/-EPO pattern means nice cold (maybe "colder" is more apposite term? PV locked up north of 60 so it doesn't really look that cold) dry troughiness over the lakes with the EC possibily cashing in on a stormier pattern. FML. I hear suicide is painless, and it brings on many changes. All is left to do is move on from this winter, Mike. Think good thoughts for the next one I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 +PNA/-EPO pattern means nice cold (maybe "colder" is more apposite term? PV locked up north of 60 so it doesn't really look that cold) dry troughiness over the lakes with the EC possibily cashing in on a stormier pattern. FML. I hear suicide is painless, and it brings on many changes. The NAO looks to remain nuetral to positive. I don't think dry troughiness over the GLs is a lock with only the EC cashing in. HM commented that the models are likely going to struggle. If you said a strong -NAO with a +PNA then I would agree with the dry troughiness the lakes. I still think we will see some good chances coming up. The 6Z GFS (no I don't trust it) showed nice system around hour 168 and it is tracking similar to what we have been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The NAO looks to remain nuetral to positive. I don't think dry troughiness over the GLs is a lock with only the EC cashing in. HM commented that the models are likely going to struggle. If you said a strong -NAO with a +PNA then I would agree with the dry troughiness the lakes. I still think we will see some good chances coming up. The 6Z GFS (no I don't trust it) showed nice system around hour 168 and it is tracking similar to what we have been seeing. If the PNA ridge axis is located as far east as depicted here: you're not going to need a substantially negative NAO or west based NAO to keep the storm track more EC oriented. Time will tell regarding the teleconnectors, but one thing's for certain: I'll get screwed over nicely one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 GFS has a nice shot of cold around the 8th. Prior to that, the first week still looks very mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If the PNA ridge axis is located as far east as depicted here: you're not going to need a substantially negative NAO or west based NAO to keep the storm track more EC oriented. Time will tell regarding the teleconnectors, but one thing's for certain: I'll get screwed over nicely one way or another. My comment includes the fact that I believe the models are struggling with this pattern. HM points out they maybe struggling even more so up coming. This winter I have seen them have agreement like this in the 7-10 day range only to have it be significantly different as we got closer and closer. The models (including the EURO) have have shown extended torches of 50F+ IMBY but as we approached they were diminished. I know you are down and I am not going to kick yah. I think we have better times ahead even for you. I don't trust the models right now (they did horrid with yesterdays/last nights storm). No I don't expect a miracle pattern for us. I just believe it is going to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I know you are down and I am not going to kick yah. I think we have better times ahead even for you. I don't trust the models right now (they did horrid with yesterdays/last nights storm). By all means, go ahead. Aim for the teeth please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 By all means, go ahead. Aim for the teeth please. Here you go: How's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Feb 29th record low...easy one to beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Here you go: How's that DAMN! Out cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Or the complete opposite of last year. We are "due" for dry torchy spring. Something along the lines of spring 2010. Yes it was niño year but look at our La niño pattern this year. We shall see. Spring 2010 featured a rapidly developing strong La Nina, from a strong El Nino in the previous year. That pretty much explains why Spring of 2010 (and the Summer) were consistently very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 12z GFS is strange in long range, it has what appers to be a bunch of random snow showers in OV. Then it a huge trough in the east with a Florida freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Or the complete opposite of last year. We are "due" for dry torchy spring. Something along the lines of spring 2010. Yes it was niño year but look at our La niño pattern this year. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Before anyone gets too hung up on the models i suggest reading this post from HM.. http://www.americanw...ost__p__1317228 Just a word of warning...for all of you who don't remember...last year at this time when the AAM state was changing etc. it lead to a significant model forecast degradation during that period (late Jan-early Feb). I suspect this is likely again, so expect, at the very least, wild shifts in timing in the day 2-5 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 My wife thought I pooped my pants because I had melted chocolate all over my back. Somehow my daughter had dropped a piece of dark chocolate behind me... I even ate it so my wife believed me (it was good...Trader Joe's dark chocolate)... Other then that. Feb looks to come in like a lamb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 ILN .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WHAT WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED MORE CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS IS HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH AND MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BEYOND THAT...THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALSO BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. OBVIOUSLY...GETTING TOO SPECIFIC ON THESE DISTURBANCES IS NOT PRUDENT GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND THE FACT THAT THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION COULD END UP LOOKING QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS...IT CAN BE SAID THAT THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE ACTIVE AND COLD THAN THE FIRST HALF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 In my experience it looks like it will be more on the warm side than cold. That has been the pattern. A few days of cold and then back above normal. Probably will end up a cold spring and early summer. That is how it has been when we had a mild winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannie Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Severe season had better be a whopper. We do not need another severe season like last year! I'd rather a calm season like winter has been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 12z Euro at 240 hours is something. Just look at the 500H map. Crazy looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The GFS and Euro have been advertising a trough for the past several days... Right now the GFS trough is around 216 hours. The closer we get to the event the more I will buy into the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 The GFS and Euro have been advertising a trough for the past several days... Right now the GFS trough is around 216 hours. The closer we get to the event the more I will buy into the model. I have a good feeling about it this time, at this point as long as I don't get my weekly wendsday deluge of rainfall I will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 At this point in the season I really don't care... I'd be just as happy with 50s and sunny than snow melting 12 hours after it stops falling. Hopefully I don't get stuck in the middle of those... rather have one end of the extreme rather than in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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