gosaints Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting to note in a winter that featured very little snow cover around here the frost depth in still very shallow. Between 6 and 10 inches in most areas. Thats very shallow for this time of the year in SE MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Frost depth her never exceeded 3" all winter. In fact most of the time is wasn't even frozen, can't wait for the summer time bug issues with the super wet summer and fall of last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There will be a storm somewhere around the 22nd. It has been, for some reason, an historically and statistically active period, especially around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting to note in a winter that featured very little snow cover around here the frost depth in still very shallow. Between 6 and 10 inches in most areas. Thats very shallow for this time of the year in SE MN. Yeah that is the case in much of the MW/GL into the adjacent parts of Canada. Unless things change in the next few weeks (doubtful but still possible), the shallow frost depth, lack of significant ice and the significant lack of snowcover could lead to some positive feedback into early spring. I.e. unless a specific weather pattern overwhelms the MW/GL it will be harder to have a below normal temp spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There will be a storm somewhere around the 22nd. It has been, for some reason, an historically and statistically active period, especially around here. Rain..... sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think its a very small chance with this particular storm.....but trust me, your (as well as many on here) biggest snowstorm of the 2011-12 season has not happened yet I will hold you to your prediction and I'll be sure to call in my debts once tax day comes around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah that is the case in much of the MW/GL into the adjacent parts of Canada. Unless things change in the next few weeks (doubtful but still possible), the shallow frost depth, lack of significant ice and the significant lack of snowcover could lead to some positive feedback into early spring. I.e. unless a specific weather pattern overwhelms the MW/GL it will be harder to have a below normal temp spring. Unless there's very good reason to believe otherwise, I say go with persistence and forecast an above average spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'm so pissed off at myself for allowing a a couple good model (bogus) runs of the gfs tease me and get the better of me yesterday. I was doing so well this winter ignoring all the fantasy stuff and wishcasts. I feel like I fell off the weenie wagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'm so pissed off at myself for allowing a a couple good model (bogus) runs of the gfs tease me and get the better of me yesterday. I was doing so well this winter ignoring all the fantasy stuff and wishcasts. I feel like I fell off the weenie wagon The next 7-10 days might put you to the test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'm so pissed off at myself for allowing a a couple good model (bogus) runs of the gfs tease me and get the better of me yesterday. I was doing so well this winter ignoring all the fantasy stuff and wishcasts. I feel like I fell off the weenie wagon I hear you man, BUT the reason you can't help yourself is the same reason all of us cannot help ourselves. It's an addiction and it is who we are. Do you know how many times I wish that I could care less about winter weather? All the time, especially in years like this. It flat SUX MOOSE oo's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'm so pissed off at myself for allowing a a couple good model (bogus) runs of the gfs tease me and get the better of me yesterday. I was doing so well this winter ignoring all the fantasy stuff and wishcasts. I feel like I fell off the weenie wagon Same here bro. lol @ us analyzing H5 plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/13058800/weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 41 °F and it's not even noon, full sun. Though we didn't get a blizzard, this may be my favorite winter in Wisconsin so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Went down to 35° last night. 0.57" of rain late last night. Seems like today might be one of the those odd lake breeze days for February again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://www.xtranorma...800/weatherbell LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Already in the low 40s here. Should make a run at 50 today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks like Feb. is going to be a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks like Feb. is going to be a bust DVN agrees. BEYOND...THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION/NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE POSITIVE PHASE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BEFORE TRENDING NEGATIVE AGAIN. THIS SUGGESTS A SURGE OF WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. ..HAASE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks like Feb. is going to be a bust Agree, Not looking good...unless you like clouds and 40 degrees everyday with potholes and muddy cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 DVN agrees. BEYOND...THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION/NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE POSITIVE PHASE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BEFORE TRENDING NEGATIVE AGAIN. THIS SUGGESTS A SURGE OF WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. ..HAASE.. Compared to now that must mean highs in the 60s and 70s. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://www.xtranorma...800/weatherbell LMAO!!! Hilarious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks like Feb. is going to be a bust There's still the great late month hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://www.xtranorma...800/weatherbell What did I just watch oh my god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 One more shot of "winter" around the 27th and lets call it a season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://www.xtranorma...800/weatherbell Rofl!!! Nice find Nic! Clouds are building back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Rofl!!! Nice find Nic! I just don't understand what happened to his forecasting, he is basically wishcasting now. He always was a hypemaster, but now he has even surpassed Henry Margusity in hype. I remember when Joe was the conservative one, and Henry hyped storms. Now it is the other way around. Only reason I still subscribe to Weatherbell is because of Joseph D'Aleo at least he does not wishcast. Also Joe Bastardi is an example of what not to do in the weather forecasting buisiness, at least I will know what not to do if I ever want to be a weather forecaster. Ok end rant I think that is enough Met bashing for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Holy western trough on the 12z Euro @ 240 534 dm thicknesses entering the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Holy western trough on the 12z Euro @ 240 534 dm thicknesses entering the Baja. I noticed. GFS has a storm in the Midwest that same time. Different jet stream configuration though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Holy western trough on the 12z Euro @ 240 534 dm thicknesses entering the Baja. That will bring tropical out of the woodwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Will there be bickering on the board between people who make posts about excepting an early spring and those that want to hang onto winter hopes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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