Nic Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think heard once, P006 verifies the best. I have a bad feeling the POO5 will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The birds are coming back, saw a cardinal today. Cardinals don't leave. Wish the ice fishing today was as perfect as the weather. Still awesome to be out one the lake in the calm and sunny march like weather catching some rays a month early - live for these kind of days and would take them over being out on the lake on a 90 degree summer day. Sure clouded up fast just as we were leaving early in the afternoon and the fish really turned on for the rest of the group i was told. Little snow cover that was left this morning is long gone except for piles along driveways. Looking forward to friday on the ice with hopefully more march like temps in the 40's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You know the 18z gfs OP, isn't even that great for Ohio, most of that precip is rain according to some maps I just saw Now THAT would be the true cherry on the sh*t winter sundae. Finally getting an app runner and it still rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 You know the 18z gfs OP, isn't even that great for Ohio, most of that precip is rain according to some maps I just saw Now THAT would be the true cherry on the sh*t winter sundae. Finally getting an app runner and it still rains It wouldn't be rain if it verified, look at the 850 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It wouldn't be rain if it verified, look at the 850 mb temps. x 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It wouldn't be rain if it verified, look at the 850 mb temps. x 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Man I hear ya. I've been getting sick allot as of late. This late perpetual Fall (winter) has not helped reducing the cold and flu season. I am sick right now with a bad cold. Not bad enough to miss work or stay in bed all day, but bad enough to feel like complete sh*t and have to pump myself full of medicine lol. I spent quite a bit of time in the snow Sat and it was thereafter that I started feeling like crap so my winter-hating coworkers are having a field day blaming that on me getting sick. This kind of winter, not really a perpetual late-Fall as there have been some decent cold shots (obviously theyve been brief)....its been the up and down roller coaster that is making it an absolute nightmare for sickness. Winter hasnt been as crappy here as in many other places, and still 2 months to get a big snowstorm, but I have to admit Im starting to side with snowstormcanuck that will put us in a distinct minority...hoping for a cold (if need be crappy) summer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z GFS didn't back off an inch regarding Sunday's storm. Per the NE forum, the EURO ensemble mean was 100-150 miles further NW than the OP EURO. Maybe I'm grasping at straws as I see winter's conclusion rapidly approaching, but I think there's at least a small chance this produces some accumulating snow in the eastern OV/Lakes. I think its a very small chance with this particular storm.....but trust me, your (as well as many on here) biggest snowstorm of the 2011-12 season has not happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 21 sref says the nam will probably take a step towards the gfs. The 500 alignment looks much better. Now we just need to sharpen it up a bit and allow the nw trend commence sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM misses da phase. ...but it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM misses da phase. ...but it was close. Try really close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM misses da phase. ...but it was close. Were edging closer and closer to a more viable solution, lets hope it continues to trend for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM was a clean miss ala the ECMWF. Next piece of energy is already pumping heights to the west. It will be interesting if the GFS capitulates tonight. Better than the 12Z and 18Z, however. Progress is progress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS will be a step back. To be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z GFS looks similar to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like the Euro is gaining the upper hand. I don't know what it is with the Euro, but it is having one heck of a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ha. It has had its "Whacko" moments in the 120-180 range as much as anybody, but its better equipment helps it as we head inside 120hrs sans gradient patterns when it has a north bias at times(of course the GFS has a south bias). The GFS's problem is it overblows western ridging. That is IMO what happened this time. It thought the ridge was strong enough to "repel" the coming firehose and dig the northern branch some. This looks to be a near total miss for Canada. Toronto's snow drought looks to continue. This city has not see a major snowfall in a few years and is on track for one of the most snow free winters of the past century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This looks to be a near total miss for Canada. Toronto's snow drought looks to continue. This city has not see a major snowfall in a few years and is on track for one of the most snow free winters of the past century. I wonder what horrors next year will provide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I wonder what horrors next year will provide? Well, the trend has been for increasingly snow free winters. If you were a betting person, I'd bet that next winter will see more of the same. It seems that over the past decade the Mid-Atlantic has been getting snowier while we've been seeing less snow (with regard to our averages of course). The funny thing is that peoplel ike JB, whose clietele largely reside in areas that have seen increased snowfall on average over the past decade, has people believing that winters are getting harsher when in reality the areas that have traditionally seen harsh winters on average are now seeing their winters gradually become less harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the one thing that bugs me... I can't seem to recall the last major storm that whiffed us to the south. We have been hammered by virtually EVERY southern stream system in the past year, (ie nearing 60 inches of rain in the past year). Why should this be any different just because it might have some snow on the northern edge. just a little weenie anecdotal rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wait a few more runs and it may whiff everybody. that's actually more believable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, the trend has been for increasingly snow free winters. If you were a betting person, I'd bet that next winter will see more of the same. It seems that over the past decade the Mid-Atlantic has been getting snowier while we've been seeing less snow (with regard to our averages of course). The funny thing is that peoplel ike JB, whose clietele largely reside in areas that have seen increased snowfall on average over the past decade, has people believing that winters are getting harsher when in reality the areas that have traditionally seen harsh winters on average are now seeing their winters gradually become less harsh. Snowstorms seem to think overall, a -PDO will be beneficial for us, but so far, it's been quite the mixed bag. I think the overall frequency of "bad" winters has stayed the same in recent history, it's just the intensity of them that's been increasing in the last 10 years or so. That trend I do expect to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ggem is miss, but damn it's close. Precip shield about 100 miles south of us at 96 hrs. Think we can get that sucker 150+ miles north in 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ggem is miss, but damn it's close. Precip shield about 100 miles south of us at 96 hrs. Think we can get that sucker 150+ miles north in 4 days? IF the models are handling the northern energy ( AGAIN ) like they have been with this current and the last few then your answer is YES and perhaps even alot further then 150+ miles. That would depend on the amount of phasing. Thus if it phases the chances are high it comes inland/further nw quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Must be some record for the amount of night time lows NOT in the single digits ...so many nights in the teens/20F so far this winter. Looking at the 0z ...Its going to be a week+ maybe without even going into the teens. Its killing our averages again (warm nights). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We've only had two days below zero this season. Both days we bottomed out at -1. It's very rare we get a winter where we don't get at least one morning at -10 or lower. It's also very rare to have only two mins subzero. Just a natural evening out of things, as the last several winters have been very snowy and cold. I think it was 2008 or 2009 we hit -33 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wednesday, February 15th: Hi: 42F Lo: 32F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 18MPH Rainfall: 0.20" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We've only had two days below zero this season. Both days we bottomed out at -1. It's very rare we get a winter where we don't get at least one morning at -10 or lower. It's also very rare to have only two mins subzero. Just a natural evening out of things, as the last several winters have been very snowy and cold. I think it was 2008 or 2009 we hit -33 here. Had one day with a below 0° low, -1°. February 2007 was frigid. 9 morning lows below 0°, lowest was -15°. Coldest low I ever remember here was -25° back in January of '99. Haven't had anything below -20° for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EURO is about 200 miles north according to Joe Bastardi and he says it will likely correct further north with tomorrow's runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It didn't even hit freezing last night. Should get near 50 °F again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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