Hoosier Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 After being something like +11 in the first week of the month, we have managed to knock it down to +3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 euro looks interesting for the folks west and north of a Indy/toledo line day 7 Ehh, looks like precip is mostly moving out as the cold air comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What a nice day.... Looks like some clouds could brush us, but more clearing to the south... 12z GFS IS A TORCH... Oh my God... My greenhouse hit 80F earlier...just put it up a few days ago. Nice to sit in there and enjoy a little of the tropics...already put onion seedlings out there. Plan on leaving them unless overnight lows drop below 18F (inside should stay about 10F warmer). If the GFS verfies we can kiss the snow we have goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Through february 14th Rochester MN was at 24.7 for the winter. 2001-2002 was there warmest on record at 25.1. Will the record be broken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saints- Yeah. Even the piles (what we have of them) will go. The days are only getting longer the sun will have more kick to melt even with subfreezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 day 10 but for s&gs, looks to me once that eastern trough heads out, that cold air dumps into the west and we could have ourselves a full on torch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Strong signal on the GFS ensembles for a big storm toward the end of the month. Almost every member has a big event of some sort in that timeframe...pretty impressive considering how far out it is. Edit: P007 at 288 hours with a 972 mb low near Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 day 10 but for s&gs, looks to me once that eastern trough heads out, that cold air dumps into the west and we could have ourselves a full on torch here. Yeppers! Then, we probably have a misearble April. Who knows. I am having a hard time with coming to grips with this "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Strong signal on the GFS ensembles for a big storm toward the end of the month. Almost every member has a big event of some sort in that timeframe...pretty impressive considering how far out it is. noticed that as well, worth watching I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 noticed that as well, worth watching I guess. See my edit Of course we have seen a lot of these fizzle as we get closer, but impressive broad agreement right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Strong signal on the GFS ensembles for a big storm toward the end of the month. Almost every member has a big event of some sort in that timeframe...pretty impressive considering how far out it is. Edit: P007 at 288 hours with a 972 mb low near Lake Huron. Maybe a couple of systems, the 180-216 range had a good number of ensembles with a storm of decent magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 buckeye- Could spell doom for some plants. I wouldn't be shocked if trees start budding if we get too much warmth, especially areas in the south. I've already read about farmers in Ohio who are scared for their apple crops this year. Then just watch as we get a chunk of arctic air in mid/late March and just wipe out everything on the east side of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 See my edit Of course we have seen a lot of these fizzle as we get closer, but impressive broad agreement right now This is really our last shot as it's fantasy range and we're quickly approaching spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Because the current system crapped out our forecasted cloudy & upper 30s day turned into mostly sunny & low to mid 40s. It's nice to get a sunny surprise for once given all the recent days with stubborn cloud decks. The next two days look great with sun and 40s. That should melt off most of the remaining snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The birds are coming back, saw a cardinal today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Made it to 43 even without a minute of sunshine today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 at the risk of a massive jinx... if the euro moves towards a gfs solution....I'll spin off a separate thread for this as the first 'threat' for the eastern OV and eastern lakes of the season. 18z GFS even further west... these model discrepancies are lol worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z GFS didn't back off an inch regarding Sunday's storm. Per the NE forum, the EURO ensemble mean was 100-150 miles further NW than the OP EURO. Maybe I'm grasping at straws as I see winter's conclusion rapidly approaching, but I think there's at least a small chance this produces some accumulating snow in the eastern OV/Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z GFS didn't back off an inch regarding Sunday's storm. Per the NE forum, the EURO ensemble mean was 100-150 miles further NW than the OP EURO. Maybe I'm grasping at straws as I see winter's conclusion rapidly approaching, but I think there's at least a small chance this produces some accumulating snow in the eastern OV/Lakes. I can already tell this will do one of two things here, given I have plans to go skiing/snow tubing Bellefontaine on Sunday... 1.) Miss completely, pissing me off a bit 2.) Come so close to being a major storm there that I'm in a bad mood the whole trip 3.) End up being a major storm, cancelling my plans. I'd bet on the 1st one being the most likely, but for areas east of a line of Sandusky to CMH I could see a little bit of a snow tease, assuming anything like the GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Regardless of what the gfs is doing, the 800lb gorilla in the room sucking all the oxygen is the suppressed euro and it's fairly consistent solutions. I don't ever recall the gfs scoring a coupe in this timeframe over the euro....ever. If this was the good ole days of the inevitable nw trend, I'd be sweating a Detroit cutter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ended up pulling off a decent finish to the day. Around 3 pm the sun broke out. Felt nice and did some damage to frozen snow dirt piles along the street. Turtlehuricane made a mention of a Cardinal and returning birds. This has now forced me to search for the 1st Robin sighting. Ideally you start to see these in early to mid March but it's not out of the ordinary to spot a robin or robins in late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Bye snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The last one in the second row looks so beautiful and atleast this isnt a week out but I'm amazed at the amount of possibilities this storm has. If we can have atleast two storms this Winter over 8", I will take away all the bad stuff I said about this Winter, or most of them lol. Its all a matter of timing with this one. Whether it phases or not is the big question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The last one in the second row looks so beautiful and atleast this isnt a week out but I'm amazed at the amount of possibilities this storm has. If we can have atleast two storms this Winter over 8", I will take away all the bad stuff I said about this Winter, or most of them lol. Its all a matter of timing with this one. Whether it phases or not is the big question mark. I'd take P002 or P003 in a heart beat. Nice 2-4/3-5 type deal. Just a shame that the kicker coming into WA cannot disappear. Would allow me to commit to the UKIE/GFS camp more fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'd take P002 or P003 in a heart beat. Nice 2-4/3-5 type deal. Just a shame that the kicker coming into WA cannot disappear. Would allow me to commit to the UKIE/GFS camp more fully. I'm giving it till Friday 0z the latest. I suspect alot of model fluctuations thru the next few days as the energy gets sampled, etc. Basically its the GFS/Ukie/JMA vs the Euro/CMC. The Nam is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The last one in the second row looks so beautiful and atleast this isnt a week out but I'm amazed at the amount of possibilities this storm has. If we can have atleast two storms this Winter over 8", I will take away all the bad stuff I said about this Winter, or most of them lol. Its all a matter of timing with this one. Whether it phases or not is the big question mark. i just checked out the 18z gfs ensemble mean and it has the low over central VA at 90 hrs. really amazing as I would have expected that the OP might be the outlier and the ensembles would be much further east. We need one of two things too happen, either the northern features slow down or the sw speeds up. One thing to look for in future runs is if the southern vort shows signs of opening up quicker. One of the issues is it closes off and slows down letting the northern branch out run it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i just checked out the 18z gfs ensemble mean and it has the low over central VA at 90 hrs. really amazing as I would have expected that the OP might be the outlier and the ensembles would be much further east. We need one of two things too happen, either the northern features slow down or the sw speeds up. One thing to look for in future runs is if the southern vort shows signs of opening up quicker. One of the issues is it closes off and slows down letting the northern branch out run it. In my mind it would be good if the s/w vort energy slows down and secludes itself across the S/W and waits for the northern stream to move further East to allow for a better phase and a further West track. I wouldn't use the teleconnections to deteremine the track for this storm as its all about the placements of the vort energies and how it reacts. Again alot of possibilities so dont get your hopes up until we see some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 In my mind it would be good if the s/w vort energy slows down and secludes itself across the S/W and waits for the northern stream to move further East to allow for a better phase and a further West track. I wouldn't use the teleconnections to deteremine the track for this storm as its all about the placements of the vort energies and how it reacts. Again alot of possibilities so dont get your hopes up until we see some consistency. If you're talking about that kicker coming into the nw phasing with the sw, that would really crank this thing way west. I'd be sweating rain on that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think heard once, P006 verifies the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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