buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Too bad that kicker coming into the PNW keeps everything pos tilt/progressive. This could have been a more widespread GL storm. Seems like the 0z GFS represents a "western extreme" solution, although with the number of s/ws in play, there's still a lot of fluidity, and some things could change. as interesting as the 12zgfs is with that sudden shift.... I'm not buying squat without the euro playing ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 All that system looks to do for us is drain the mositure out of the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 as interesting as the 12zgfs is with that sudden shift.... I'm not buying squat without the euro playing ball. It wasn't that sudden some of the 0z ensemble members have been showing something west closer to you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z ggem doesn't even get moisture north of NC. Gfs is up to it's usual steroidal phasing tricks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'd be inconsolable if that happens. I could handle GHD but not that. But the good thing is that it's past day 10. The 12z GFS model run on Feb. 15 now gives the Midwest good svr wx chances instead of a snowstorm for the same time period. Models will be all over this for the time being, but I like the idea that someone may get some type of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Something new now there is not much cold air around for the fantasy storm on the GFS. How surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 uk only out to 72 but that looks squarely to be in the 12gfs camp...possibly even more extreme. Hard to tell for sure though 12zeuro will tell the tale... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The rest of the winter might be like early Spring. Some cold days and wet snow events, but above freezing weather overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just another typical ****ty gray & damp SeMi day. Temps holding in the 30s with Steel gray overcast skies and broken patches of half melted dirty snow. Looking forward to a heavy rain storm to wash this mess away. Can't wait for the spring warmth and sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just another typical ****ty gray & damp SeMi day. Temps holding in the 30s with Steel gray overcast skies and broken patches of half melted dirty snow. Looking forward to a heavy rain storm to wash this mess away. Can't wait for the spring warmth and sunshine. Can't wait for spring for this reason alone...worst winter ever for Sinus infections! I mean it feels like there's a sword going through my eye/top my nose area. Up and down temps no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 uk only out to 72 but that looks squarely to be in the 12gfs camp...possibly even more extreme. Hard to tell for sure though 12zeuro will tell the tale... Nice find. Definitely going to be in the phased camp. This is pretty big because at 0z UKIE was firmly suppressed and it's the first non-NCEP model to move towards the idea of phasing. So long as the 12z EURO shows some type of improvement, even if it's not as gung-ho as the UKIE/GFS, it'll be a pretty big step towards certifying this threat as legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nice find. Definitely going to be in the phased camp. This is pretty big because at 0z UKIE was firmly suppressed and it's the first non-NCEP model to move towards the idea of phasing. So long as the 12z EURO shows some type of improvement, even if it's not as gung-ho as the UKIE/GFS, it'll be a pretty big step towards certifying this threat as legit. Agree, the GGEM was flat as hell though just to toss that out there. Though it has been brutal all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Based on the H5 plots, GEFS are going to be a mixed bag. Probably 3-4 will go nuts with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Can't wait for spring for this reason alone...worst winter ever for Sinus infections! I mean it feels like there's a sword going through my eye/top my nose area. Up and down temps no good. Man I hear ya. I've been getting sick allot as of late. This late perpetual Fall (winter) has not helped reducing the cold and flu season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nice find. Definitely going to be in the phased camp. This is pretty big because at 0z UKIE was firmly suppressed and it's the first non-NCEP model to move towards the idea of phasing. So long as the 12z EURO shows some type of improvement, even if it's not as gung-ho as the UKIE/GFS, it'll be a pretty big step towards certifying this threat as legit. beyond that uk has 994 just south of DC at 96....so significant shift. Not enough for my neck of the woods but as quiet as this winter has been, it's worth watching a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Here we go...The forums started lagging. 459 members, 438 guests, 30 anonymous users (80% from the N/E) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Man I hear ya. I've been getting sick allot as of late. This late perpetual Fall (winter) has not helped reducing the cold and flu season. Same here! I had the flu 3 times this season. Never before was I sick this many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 beyond that uk has 994 just south of DC at 96....so significant shift. Not enough for my neck of the woods but as quiet as this winter has been, it's worth watching a bit. It's got an inverted sfc trough look to it though. I'd imagine, just by looking at the sfc plots, some -SN would make it as far north as me, even with the sfc low that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's got an inverted sfc trough look to it though. I'd imagine, just by looking at the sfc plots, some -SN would make it as far north as me, even with the sfc low that far south. at the risk of a massive jinx... if the euro moves towards a gfs solution....I'll spin off a separate thread for this as the first 'threat' for the eastern OV and eastern lakes of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 at the risk of a massive jinx... if the euro moves towards a gfs solution....I'll spin off a separate thread for this as the first 'threat' for the eastern OV and eastern lakes of the season. Worst case scenario, it'll be a nice sequel to the winter complaint thread. The mets in the NE thread are making some good points about the general H5 pattern. Typically, for a major meridional moving storm, you're gonna want more long wave ridging out west. That closed low coming into Seattle around 72 is not ideal. I think something perhaps slightly NW of the 12z GFS/UKIE is the best case scenario, given the setup. I'm not expecting a major Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Apparently Dr. No is going to live up to his name. Ah well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 45 outside with sun. Forecast bust as they only had upper 30s and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lol at all of the nam talk on the last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Apparently Dr. No is going to live up to his name. Ah well... yea, you could even tell at 48 hrs it's much quicker with the northern energy. Def. gonna outrun any phasing attempt. Probably end up closer to the ggem. oh well rather be shut out early than led on and teased into disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Same here! I had the flu 3 times this season. Never before was I sick this many times. This winter I've been clear of the flu and colds. "knock on wood!" I've been outside more this winter too. Maybe that's been making the difference! Thought it would be gray and overcast today, but so far it has been partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What a nice day.... Looks like some clouds could brush us, but more clearing to the south... 12z GFS IS A TORCH... Oh my God... My greenhouse hit 80F earlier...just put it up a few days ago. Nice to sit in there and enjoy a little of the tropics...already put onion seedlings out there. Plan on leaving them unless overnight lows drop below 18F (inside should stay about 10F warmer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Overcast here, but still 38 degrees. Will probably make the low 40s even without any sun. Was looking like would could pick up a quarter inch of rain tonight, but now it's looking like less than a tenth. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You guys talking about being sick? I've been on and off (mostly on) since Oct. My son first started preschool and those preschool germs are nasty nasty nasty. Since then I was sick for 13 days in Jan with Mono or something that turned into a sinus infection (went on Ceftin and cleared it up in a day or 2). Now the past 15 days I've had a sore throat that turned into peritonsillar abcess (think pus in the tonsil crypt). I had to drain it and back on to antibiotics. Feeling good now for a few days... This fall/winter I've been sick more then the past 10 combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Worst case scenario, it'll be a nice sequel to the winter complaint thread. The mets in the NE thread are making some good points about the general H5 pattern. Typically, for a major meridional moving storm, you're gonna want more long wave ridging out west. That closed low coming into Seattle around 72 is not ideal. I think something perhaps slightly NW of the 12z GFS/UKIE is the best case scenario, given the setup. I'm not expecting a major Apps runner. If anything Texas continues to work itself out of the drought! Would a closed low coming into Seattle suppress, steal energy/weaken the southern wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 euro looks interesting for the folks west and north of a Indy/toledo line day 7 edit: maybe a little further nw than that....and maybe not that interesting. But it's all relative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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