Geos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looks like will be heading into phase 1 of the MJO by tomorrow (or maybe we are already there). Who knows where it will go from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Canadian ensemble analog dates from CPC in the 6-10 day range. #3 circled in red looks like a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Let's hope. The latest storm if you can even call it that for my area for you it was pretty good but anyways it only produced a couple inches at best. I'm hoping that these next couple of weeks produces more than that like 6+'' but I am getting too ahead of myself lol Agreed. The previous storm was good by this season's standards (even the forecasters were over-hyping it, which shows how sorry snowstorn-wise this season has been), but not by a typical Detroit winter standards, epsecially considering the fact that it wasn't even a WWA event. I'm not giving up on February 16th yet. It has ton of potential for anyone north of I-70, especially if it closes off at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Agreed. The previous storm was good by this season's standards (even the forecasters were over-hyping it, which shows how sorry snowstorn-wise this season has been), but not by a typical Detroit winter standards, epsecially considering the fact that it wasn't even a WWA event. I'm not giving up on February 16th yet. It has ton of potential for anyone north of I-70, especially if it closes off at 500mb. It was probably slightly hyped because way more snow fell than was forecast. And it WAS a WWA event, just no advisory was issued. I will NEVER rate a snowstorm based on the headline or lack of one that was issued (or else GHD would get bonus points for having up to 15" of snow in the headline). The snowfall parameters clearly met advisory criteria and the blowing/drifting snow was an extra hazard. I do however agree that this winters standards certainly made it seem like a harsher storm that if it had been in any of the last several winters. And I sure hope youre right about Feb 16th, you are an outlier now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I was looking at the LAF obs from V Day 2007 on wunderground, and noticed that the record high for February 14th is apparently 111º set in 2002. Sure enough. METAR KLAF 150454Z 23011KT 10SM CLR 044/M07 A3005 RMK SLP179 T00391067 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I was looking at the LAF obs from V Day 2007 on wunderground, and noticed that the record high for February 14th is apparently 111º set in 2002. Sure enough. METAR KLAF 150454Z 23011KT 10SM CLR 044/M07 A3005 RMK SLP179 T00391067 LOL. There was some convection associated with that snow event right? Nocturnal heat burst? EDIT: Woops, wasn't even the right year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hello all, I haven't been around much this winter because this has the worst winter of my lifetime so far. I saw flakes today for just the third time this season, for the third time I got just a trace of snow. The roofs and cars got covered and well that's about it. I'm ready for the warmer air to move on in because I've about had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hello all, I haven't been around much this winter because this has the worst winter of my lifetime so far. I saw flakes today for just the third time this season, for the third time I got just a trace of snow. The roofs and cars got covered and well that's about it. I'm ready for the warmer air to move on in because I've about had it. Been a rough winter for all involved. Hopefully next year's edition is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Making my call now for the next snow system. .75" Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I was looking at the LAF obs from V Day 2007 on wunderground, and noticed that the record high for February 14th is apparently 111º set in 2002. Sure enough. METAR KLAF 150454Z 23011KT 10SM CLR 044/M07 A3005 RMK SLP179 T00391067 Just a bit warm, one hell of an inverted V sounding too probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This really doesn't have anything to do with February weather but I am working on 2 "projects" that I hope to roll out later this month or early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The Euro isn't the Euro without the 978mb bomb in the MW/GL region at D9-10. We can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The Euro isn't the Euro without the 978mb bomb in the MW/GL region at D9-10. We can dream. Blizzard of 1978...WANA BE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Monday, February 13th: Hi: 35F Lo: 15F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 25MPH Rainfall: 0.03" Snowfall: 0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Definitely on the weak El Nino bandwagon for 2012-13. Back to back La Nina's have killed the STJ. It is limper than a Viagra commercial. Transitioning into El Niño might be real interesting this Summer/Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Canadian ensemble analog dates from CPC in the 6-10 day range. #3 circled in red looks like a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This "winter" has made me quite vindictive towards those enjoying the warmth and lack of snow. I seriously hope every day this summer is in the 60s with showers. And I will drink their tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 A few residual snowflakes floating down atm. Gonna enjoy this while we can, as the next event will be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm no exper,t but the recent NAO has a different flatter look. Even a potential not (+ve) look in late Feb. Snow breeds snow, so lets all hope that winter becomes winter and not an over extended fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm no exper,t but the recent NAO has a different flatter look. Even a potential not (+ve) look in late Feb. Snow breeds snow, so lets all hope that winter becomes winter and not an over extended fall. I think that ship has set sail. btw...can you explain your second sentence to me. I'm not familiar with the term "+ve". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The Euro isn't the Euro without the 978mb bomb in the MW/GL region at D9-10. We can dream. GFS has been showing something similar on a regular basis. Looks pretty warm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Bets with BowMe updated. LSE gets to 20" after yesterday's snowfall. Bet #1 almost locked up. Bet #1 - MKE and LSE not getting to 20" for the season (season totals thru 2/13) MKE: 17.8" LSE: 20.0" Bet #2 - Most snow the rest of the way...January 3 to present snowfall LAF: 15.0" (thru 2/14) MKE: 16.1" (thru 2/13) YYZ: 6.9" (thru 2/11) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think that ship has set sail. btw...can you explain your second sentence to me. I'm not familiar with the term "+ve". I think "+ve" is short for "positive". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Sure looks to turn colder by the end of the month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ive seen that before on the models this winter. Anything past day 5 temp wise has been tough to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, mid-feb....only about a month left of realistic big snow potential to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, mid-feb....only about a month left of realistic big snow potential to go. Still some "historical chances" for a 10"+ snowstorm for Chicago. Official 10"+ snowstorms post February 14th in recorded history. March 23-24, 1897: 10.0" February 28, 1900: 11.3" February 18-19, 12.8" March 30-31, 1926: 12.6" March 25-26, 1930: 19.2" March 7-8, 1931: 16.2" March 2-3, 1954: 11.8" February 23-25, 1965: 11.5" March 25-26, 1970: 14.3" April 1-2, 1970: 10.7" February 18, 2000: 11.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Still some "historical chances" for a 10"+ snowstorm for Chicago. Official 10"+ snowstorms post February 14th in recorded history. March 23-24, 1897: 10.0" February 28, 1900: 11.3" February 18-19, 12.8" March 30-31, 1926: 12.6" March 25-26, 1930: 19.2" March 7-8, 1931: 16.2" March 2-3, 1954: 11.8" February 23-25, 1965: 11.5" March 25-26, 1970: 14.3" April 1-2, 1970: 10.7" February 18, 2000: 11.1" Thanks, pretty slim pickings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 March has been almost a non story for many years around here. I would agree we are due for a 6+ inch march cement snow. Although in this winter achieving that might be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Thanks, pretty slim pickings. Well, that's 11 of the total 45 "official" 10"+ snowstorms in recorded history. So yeah, 75% of them happened somewhere from November to mid February. Not surprising I guess. Sorta interesting though that 7 of those 11 storms happened in March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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