Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nice cold shot coming this weekend, starting Friday. Hopefully the arctic front can squeeze out some decent spells of snow (outside the LES belts) as it swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I see I unexpectedly stirred up a hornet's nest (or in the vernacular, a meso-cyclone) of comments on my long term post on the GFS showing a pattern change and beaut of a storm at it’s the forefront (not all that unusual). My intent really WAS to get a discussion going on the chances of that happening, thus the tongue-in-check "Oh shame on you GFS, another tease of a big snowstorm for the Great Lakes in la la land! What a deceptive web you weave with your lies?" but with a question mark at the end. You see, as a upper wind pattern researcher (as early as the late 70s) the challenge to me and other long term weather/climate enthusiast has always been; are the models "lying" in the medium range or longer term projections"? Of course that can be said in the 6-12 h timeframe too, LOL. When I originally put together my season outlook protocol, I started to look for similarities in a wide-range of meteorological parameters to compare. This subsequently evolved down into the monthly, 8-14 and 6-10 day projections. This is nothing new in extended forecast research (teleconnections, pattern recognition, etc etc) but I brought it down to a more local scale /SE Michigan/ beginning in the mid 1990s. In fact, downscaling is now quite popular in the NWS climate courses of which I attended in their infancy and we all gave feedback. I would like to propose that a separate forum be set aside for “la la land” discussions (or what was “affectionately” known as “Deedlerland” lol…oh yes I got ribbing) at the NWS DTX here on the board. That way, if anyone wants to discuss longer term /week out or further/ upper wind and surface models they can without fear of retribution. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/teleintro.shtml On the present Arctic front forecast for Friday...I'd be watching for decent convection snows (maybe some lake induced T) given the warm lakes...strong thermo dynamics and mid February convective timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Finally a sunny morning this month! Chilly night with a low of 21°. Dewpoints a lot lower today at about 12° right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I see I unexpectedly stirred up a hornet's nest (or in the vernacular, a meso-cyclone) of comments on my long term post on the GFS showing a pattern change and beaut of a storm at it’s the forefront (not all that unusual). My intent really WAS to get a discussion going on the chances of that happening, thus the tongue-in-check "Oh shame on you GFS, another tease of a big snowstorm for the Great Lakes in la la land! What a deceptive web you weave with your lies?" but with a question mark at the end. You see, as a upper wind pattern researcher (as early as the late 70s) the challenge to me and other long term weather/climate enthusiast has always been; are the models "lying" in the medium range or longer term projections"? Of course that can be said in the 6-12 h timeframe too, LOL. When I originally put together my season outlook protocol, I started to look for similarities in a wide-range of meteorological parameters to compare. This subsequently evolved down into the monthly, 8-14 and 6-10 day projections. This is nothing new in extended forecast research (teleconnections, pattern recognition, etc etc) but I brought it down to a more local scale /SE Michigan/ beginning in the mid 1990s. In fact, downscaling is now quite popular in the NWS climate courses of which I attended in their infancy and we all gave feedback. I would like to propose that a separate forum be set aside for “la la land” discussions (or what was “affectionately” known as “Deedlerland” lol…oh yes I got ribbing) at the NWS DTX here on the board. That way, if anyone wants to discuss longer term /week out or further/ upper wind and surface models they can without fear of retribution. http://www.cpc.ncep....teleintro.shtml On the present Arctic front forecast for Friday...I'd be watching for decent convection snows (maybe some lake induced T) given the warm lakes...strong thermo dynamics and mid February convective timeframe. I think it would be nice to have a medium range MW/GL discussion thread. They have one in the main forum though it is more east coast bias (not totally). It would be a good place to have tele-connections & pattern discussions. It maybe similar to the main forum thread BUT more focused on the MW & GLs. When the weather is so boring in the shorter term (next 3-5 days) I think it is natural for weather enthused people to start to discuss pattern changes/storm possibilities in the 7-14 day range. I like the idea personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think it would be nice to have a medium range MW/GL discussion thread. They have one in the main forum though it is more east coast bias (not totally). It would be a good place to have tele-connections & pattern discussions. It maybe similar to the main forum thread BUT more focused on the MW & GLs. When the weather is so boring in the shorter term (next 3-5 days) I think it is natural for weather enthused people to start to discuss pattern changes/storm possibilities in the 7-14 day range. I like the idea personally. Good idea I think! It would beat having several threads of storms beyond D7 out there. Organize and consolidate topics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think it would be nice to have a medium range MW/GL discussion thread. They have one in the main forum though it is more east coast bias (not totally). It would be a good place to have tele-connections & pattern discussions. It maybe similar to the main forum thread BUT more focused on the MW & GLs. However, isn't that technically the purpose the monthly general discussion threads are supposed to serve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 However, isn't that technically the purpose the monthly general discussion threads are supposed to serve? The general discussion threads serve so many purposes and at times can be a cluster**** to read.. Nothing wrong with starting some pattern change, med-long range, etc threads to keep things a bit more readable and organized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The general discussion threads serve so many purposes and at times can be a cluster**** to read.. Nothing wrong with starting some pattern change, med-long range, etc threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I don't think pattern change threads are a bad idea. It would be nice to have something modeled after the thread in the main forum with more of a regional flavor. Just make it clear that that's what it is so we don't have a repeat of what just happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmountainwx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I find these stratus-heavy patterns frustrating. We have been socked in with thick stratus every morning and it frequently last most of the day or all day. At least it looks like we may get into the sun earlier today for a change. The models have certainly backed off of the mild/torchish pattern they had been teasing following the late week chill. It would now seem there's at least a chance of something interesting if we can keep some decent cold while also getting some pieces of energy moving out of the west/southwest. Of course we can still get snow well into March, but since I began keeping snow records five years ago our latest 6 inch storm was Feb 17th, 2008. Mid February has very much been the end of our core snow season in recent years, with an average of only 5.6 inches thereafter. Hawkeye, those have been my obs since I moved to IA also. That brings up a point, it seems that forecasters here have an appalling record at forecasting the stratus/cloud cover. I cannot count how many dozens of days the forecast was "partly or mostly sunny" only to have the cloudy cover hang tough which also greatly affects the temp forecast. Seems that they should really focus on overcoming that flaw. Also history shows many good march snows in the past, maybe this will be the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Racking up the numbers of winter time sunny days. Just a beautiful day out there. Hopeful the sunset will bless the camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Inch of snow this morning, too bad it is melting because the ground is 40 degrees. The ground may get lightly frozen this weekend with lows in the teens. Just in time for the next rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 through the 7th, ORD is running +10.9 on the month (35.6) obviously that will come down (to an extent) as we head through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Picked up a massive 0.3" of snow this morning IMBY which has now all melted. I'm up to 13.6" for the season. I noticed West Lafayette COOP picked up 0.6", bringing them up to 9.9" of snow for the season. On the road to double digits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Racking up the numbers of winter time sunny days. Just a beautiful day out there. Hopeful the sunset will bless the camera. Why get excited about sunny days in the winter time, when it is so cold outside to do any activity, I am sure you will be complaining when it is cloudy all spring because we burned through all our nice weather when we couldn't use it (winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Stebo- I love sunny winter days, mostly because my furnace doesn't run even if its 0F outside..while those 32-33F blah days with thick stratus my furnace is kicking on every hour or so (its a loud old Trane piece of junk clunker that needs to be torn out and scrapped). On top of that, mentally it helps. I'd kill myself if it was cloudy everyday (maybe not, but i'd move ASAP to Phoenix or Palm Springs). Plus I have all kinds of plants in my south facing sliding glass door and it helps save on extra lighting. I've read where solar panels will actually produce more power in cold/clear/snow covered conditions because of the reflection/efficiency gains (cold). Up above 30F now. Still have a semi covered ground up here. Some yards are totally snow free (south facing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Stebo- I love sunny winter days, mostly because my furnace doesn't run even if its 0F outside..while those 32-33F blah days with thick stratus my furnace is kicking on every hour or so (its a loud old Trane piece of junk clunker that needs to be torn out and scrapped). On top of that, mentally it helps. I'd kill myself if it was cloudy everyday (maybe not, but i'd move ASAP to Phoenix or Palm Springs). Plus I have all kinds of plants in my south facing sliding glass door and it helps save on extra lighting. I've read where solar panels will actually produce more power in cold/clear/snow covered conditions because of the reflection/efficiency gains (cold). Up above 30F now. Still have a semi covered ground up here. Some yards are totally snow free (south facing). I can understand the need for occasional sunny days sure, I am not a grinch lol, But the point I am making is we have had a large number of sunny days when it was cold outside and I'd much rather save them for when its 70-85 instead of 30-45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 34 and sunny here, beats those foggy days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Sunny and 33 here today after bottoming out at 17. Our 0.2" from last night melted by noon. Sun is getting a bit stronger. Last night's snow was enough to get us up closer to a foot for the season. MLI apparently received nothing, so they're still stuck at 9.0" for the season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Seasonable day here with a high of 34° -regardless of all the sun, it was chilly still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 One heck of a Winter Storm/Blizzard on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 One heck of a Winter Storm/Blizzard on the 18z GFS. Yep. Good hit for Northern Indiana, Northern Illinois, and Michigan... EDIT: Actually this isn't hardly a hit at all. Snow map doesn't look promising. Lot's of WAA involved it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Why get excited about sunny days in the winter time, when it is so cold outside to do any activity, I am sure you will be complaining when it is cloudy all spring because we burned through all our nice weather when we couldn't use it (winter). Maybe because I like the sunshine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Cold clear night. Already down to 22. Looks like mid teens later for a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Two new METAR sites in the LOT CWA... KC73 - Dixon (Lee Co) KC56 - Monee/Beecher (Will Co) Now if we could only get one in McHenry Co to fill in the large gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Down to 24° at the house. Dewpoint 16°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Two new METAR sites in the LOT CWA... KC73 - Dixon (Lee Co) KC56 - Monee/Beecher (Will Co) Now if we could only get one in McHenry Co to fill in the large gap. Ya I don't know why we don't have one in Woodstock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wednesday, February 8th: Hi: 35F Lo: 25F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 14MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Chilly morning at 18°. Up to 34° now, with bright sunshine. Arctic front should be here by 1am according to the RPM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 33/16 here today and dry. A weak wave on Monday may bring an inch or so of snow to most of Iowa and northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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