AppsRunner Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Why do they have a 21 day outlook? , that is just rediculous. If this is real... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Why do they have a 21 day outlook? , that is just rediculous. They don't. He photoshopped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 cyclone ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 They don't. He photoshopped it. I thought that after I posted that, I would have deleted that comment but it is too late, the damage has been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Today is the 1 year anniversary of my personal favorite storm last winter, A cutoff low eventually interacted with the northern stream branch, leading to a "surprise" snow from southern IL to Northwest Ohio. Now this was my favorite storm of the year for several reasons: 1.) The overall "surprise" nature of the storm. The 0z suite showed roughly an inch or two here, and that's what I went to bed expecting. Woke up at 7 and checked the HRRR showing 4-7" across the area 2.) How quickly/hard it came down. Almost all of the snow came during the day, with moderate to heavy snow for most of the day. Road crews had no chance competing with this storm. There was about 5-6" of snow on the side roads, and 3 or 4" on the main roads for much of the day here. 3.) The horrible forecasting from locals. Usually the local mets do fairly well arond here, but this was one of the biggest busts I've ever seen. The 6AM newscast called for "Up to an inch". Toledo got 7" total on about .45" of precip (15-16:1 Ratios ftw) 4.) Making up for GHD. The sound of sleet still makes me shudder. Overall a great surprise and a wonderful day for outisde activities. I would love one of those this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Ah yes. The sneak attack storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Just saw people out playing hockey on the lake. Doesn't seem very smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Just saw people out playing hockey on the lake. Doesn't seem very smart. People don't think about how mild the winter has been, they only think it's February and the ice must be thick. Seriously, that is how many people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Checked my obs...not a lot of sun at all in Feb 1998. It was cloudy, warm, snowless, and rainy. Winter 1997-98 as a whole was very cloudy. There was a bit more sun in the winter of 2001-02, maybe thats what your thinking of when connecting mild winter with sunshine. And LOL to thinking this Feb will come close to Feb 1998. I dont think so. That wasnt just a mild February, it was in a league of its own for warmth, behind only 1882. There are no signs whatsoever that point to this Feb being close to that. Feb 98 was what really put that winter in sucktitude hall of fame. There was actually a snowy week in Nov, a moderate snowfall Dec 10th, and a 2-week period of continuous snowcover and frequent snowfall in Jan. Then in Feb winter completely disappeared, the likes of which we have yet to see a DJF month since come close to. And where in the heck are you getting that MD will be getting a blizzard? I dont see it on any of the models. Ive heard some banter from some people talking about a storm in that timeframe (which no models currently show lol) but even if it does happen, good luck getting it to be a 12"+ storm. If they get their first snowfall of the season when youre there, consider it a win. In reality we will probably get more snow in Detroit than you will in MD next weekend (of course it will be of the usual 0.5 to 2-inch type variety this winter is known for). I've noticed that the milder spells of winters usually bring more clouds and fog. Probably more inversions and moisture getting trapped near the surface with the low sun angles help keep clouds around in Pacific air masses. Arctic air masses on this side of the lake mean blue skies and less clouds. Interesting LOT discussion on tomorrow's forecast. Sounds like a challenging one given stratus and fog development tonight. MONDAY`S FORECAST HAS TREMENDOUS BUST POTENTIAL. PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT FOG/STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERING OUT SHOULD BE DOWNTOWN AND SE CWA. HAVE TAKEN A HATCHET TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TOMORROW AND NOW AM GOING BELOW ALL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IF STRATUS HANGS AROUND ALL DAY WOULD STILL BE TOO WARM AS EVIDENCED BY THE MID AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF IOWA WHERE STRATUS HAS PERSISTED. CONVERSELY...IF MODELS ARE RIGHT AND WE ACTUALLY ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW THEN HIGHS COULD EASILY PUSH 50F...SO THE RANGE IN PLAUSIBLE HIGHS TOMORROW IS NEARLY 20F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Just saw people out playing hockey on the lake. Doesn't seem very smart. Dang, those people are not too smart! Is the lake even frozen over!? I wouldn't walk on any ice less than 6" thick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Dang, those people are not too smart! Is the lake even frozen over!? I wouldn't walk on any ice less than 6" thick! It's been frozen over less than a month. There's been warm days during that obviously, with few true cold days, so the ice is thin. Today there's melt ponds all over the top of it too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Plenty of ice for foot travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It would take one hell of a siberian cold outbreak to wipe this out... I was thinking about this last night at work, couple today which was above normal and tomorrow which will be above normal plus a slightly shorter month and the cold snap that looks to be seasonally cool instead of bitterly cold. I think we are right on track for our 9th month in a row of above normal temperatures here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Could the Euro and the gfs be more different after Thursday? The Euro brings 40+ degrees to Marquette Tuesday and the gfs is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Could you imagine falling through the ice with hockey skates on? Talk about a set of boat anchors... Wouldn't be pretty. You wouldn't catch me dead out there. Here was Lake Onalaska just outside LSE yesterday: Pretty crazy to see this happening this time of year. Usually a foot+ out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 As a Floridian I can't imagine driving an SUV over ice. I would NEVER do it. Tomorrow we could hit 50, awesome way to start the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 As a Floridian I can't imagine driving an SUV over ice. I would NEVER do it. Tomorrow we could hit 50, awesome way to start the week. Yeah I wouldn't try driving any heavy duty vehicles on the ice around the Midwest. I'd rather drive one of those hover crafts! Then it doesn't matter if the ice is thin or not! LOT mentioned in their AFD, the cloud and fog redevelopment tonight might linger well into tomorrow and hold temperatures in the upper 30s. That sounds like a good prediction, we've had plenty of those days recently. +8.4° above normal for the first 5 days of the month against UGN's averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Uh oh, the fog is moving in. That could compromise the warmth tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Fog/clouds are so tough to forecast...i'm not buying anything until i see blue skies and sunshine. We hit about 33F today under thick clouds. Temp killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Could you imagine falling through the ice with hockey skates on? Talk about a set of boat anchors... Wouldn't be pretty. You wouldn't catch me dead out there. Here was Lake Onalaska just outside LSE yesterday: Pretty crazy to see this happening this time of year. Usually a foot+ out there. It was a given some darwins would be in the crowd for the fishing tourny on onalaska. Plenty of ice for ice skating.. guess you wouldn't know if you don't ever get out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Checked my obs...not a lot of sun at all in Feb 1998. It was cloudy, warm, snowless, and rainy. Winter 1997-98 as a whole was very cloudy. There was a bit more sun in the winter of 2001-02, maybe thats what your thinking of when connecting mild winter with sunshine. And LOL to thinking this Feb will come close to Feb 1998. I dont think so. That wasnt just a mild February, it was in a league of its own for warmth, behind only 1882. There are no signs whatsoever that point to this Feb being close to that. Feb 98 was what really put that winter in sucktitude hall of fame. There was actually a snowy week in Nov, a moderate snowfall Dec 10th, and a 2-week period of continuous snowcover and frequent snowfall in Jan. Then in Feb winter completely disappeared, the likes of which we have yet to see a DJF month since come close to. And where in the heck are you getting that MD will be getting a blizzard? I dont see it on any of the models. Ive heard some banter from some people talking about a storm in that timeframe (which no models currently show lol) but even if it does happen, good luck getting it to be a 12"+ storm. If they get their first snowfall of the season when youre there, consider it a win. In reality we will probably get more snow in Detroit than you will in MD next weekend (of course it will be of the usual 0.5 to 2-inch type variety this winter is known for). I disagree with the Feb 98 comparison. +12 ATM with expectations of barely getting knocked down. Yes we get "cool" only to possibly warm up. Actually a Feb 02 is within reach. The MD storm has been in and out of the guidance, both in the op's and ensamble members. I don't consider it a plus either, more like a nightmare considering Im driving there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Today is the 1 year anniversary of my personal favorite storm last winter, A cutoff low eventually interacted with the northern stream branch, leading to a "surprise" snow from southern IL to Northwest Ohio. Now this was my favorite storm of the year for several reasons: 1.) The overall "surprise" nature of the storm. The 0z suite showed roughly an inch or two here, and that's what I went to bed expecting. Woke up at 7 and checked the HRRR showing 4-7" across the area 2.) How quickly/hard it came down. Almost all of the snow came during the day, with moderate to heavy snow for most of the day. Road crews had no chance competing with this storm. There was about 5-6" of snow on the side roads, and 3 or 4" on the main roads for much of the day here. 3.) The horrible forecasting from locals. Usually the local mets do fairly well arond here, but this was one of the biggest busts I've ever seen. The 6AM newscast called for "Up to an inch". Toledo got 7" total on about .45" of precip (15-16:1 Ratios ftw) 4.) Making up for GHD. The sound of sleet still makes me shudder. Overall a great surprise and a wonderful day for outisde activities. I would love one of those this year. Brought our depth to 16". Was a very good day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Ended up keeping the low clouds/fog at bay today, even though much of Iowa was socked in all day. That allowed us to reach 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Half the day here was cloudy then mostly sunny the rest of the day. Clouds and lake winds have kept temperatures from going much past 40° the last few days. Expecting clouds and some fog in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Sunday, February 5th: Hi: 44F Lo: 25F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 8MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 00z Euro has a big storm taking shape at day 10 but most of us would be on the warm side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Very dense freezing fog again this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Italy about 40 Miles south of Rome.. Amazing. This is unusual for this to happen. Probably happens once every 20 years of "true winter" although they do average 2" a year but its gone quickly temps normally rise into the 40's but this pattern is not normal for that part of Italy. Whats more Impressive the Temps have been in the teens to the Mid 30's. I know this My family is from a nearby town. Basically that's where winters at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 My brother spent many years in Germany when he was an MP in the Army. When we were driving to Rochester, MN a week or so ago he commented that the weather (fog/low clouds), temps in the low 30Fs was a lot like a German winter... Maybe we are getting their weather, while they get ours? Thick fog/clouds right now... Maybe we'll hit 33F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the US231 bridge over the river was completely frost covered and slick. And unfortunately I had to scrape my window this morning because my covered parking spot did not protect it from the freezing fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.