turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This weather is absolutely horrible. The constant fog is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 162 hours from today the Euro says... bundle the F up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 For those who don't already read it, there's some great great discussion going on in this thread right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This weather is horrid. Probably the worst type of weather possible. 33F and thick overcast skies. Plus is totally screws with averages, because the temp is constant day/night...so it makes it look a lot warmer then it is... Give me sunshine and subzero temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 162 hours from today the Euro says... bundle the F up. No kidding. Previous runs scraped the region with cold air followed by a late period warmup. The latest 12z brings down the mother lode and keeps it around. It can only get so cold, though, without a new blanket of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 162 hours from today the Euro says... bundle the F up. wheeee gotta love the -10C 850mb temps down to mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I don't buy it...whatsoever... That is going east...bank it... Euro has been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In a normal winter... Isnt 162 hours out cold dumps usually pretty spot on? I don't remember forecasts really screwing up temps... precip hell ya... but arctic temps? This is the closest we have gotten to a real arctic surge this winter. I'm looking at high temps in single digits in maybe below in northern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The Euro has been steady for several runs now in a snow event coming through Wed-Thu, almost has a weak hooker look to it. GFS op is bone dry but some ensembles do have it. Will be the next thing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 With the AO taking a dive it would slow the transient progression of these arctic blasts. But it can also wok against you. I really want to figure out which teleconection controls the game this winter. It should be noted that the pacific isn't yet sold on change...kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 With the AO taking a dive it would slow the transient progression of these arctic blasts. But it can also wok against you. I really want to figure out which teleconection controls the game this winter. It should be noted that the pacific isn't yet sold on change...kinda. in Dec/JAN the MJO/+AO/+NAO combination was the driving force. for the first half Feb it appears the MJO/+PNA...and the NAO/EPO will determine how things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Gino Izzi's take on the long range BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE LEAVING ONE TO WONDER IF THE MODELS ARE EVEN FORECASTING FOR THE SAME PLANET LET ALONE SAME HEMISPHERE! THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A MASSIVE ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH A DEEP POLAR VORTEX MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THIS IS NIGHT AND DAY DIFFERENT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHICH HAD 500MB HEIGHTS OVER 400M HIGHER. THE 12Z GFS ENSMEBLLES HAVE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL WITH H5 HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATION OVER 100M OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ESSENTIALLY...ONE WOULD HAVE ABOUT AS MUCH SKILL IN FORECASTING THE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK FLIPPING A COIN OR RIPPING A GROUNDHOG OUT OF THE GROUND AND WAITING TO SEE IF HE SEES HIS SHADOW AS YOU WOULD USING NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO STAY TUNED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 .ONE WOULD HAVE ABOUT AS MUCH SKILL IN FORECASTING THE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK FLIPPING A COIN OR RIPPING A GROUNDHOG OUT OF THE GROUND AND WAITING TO SEE IF HE SEES HIS SHADOW AS YOU WOULD USING NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO STAY TUNED... lmao So I guess the Euro saw its shadow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Heavy overcast with moderate to sometimes dense fog all day here. Pretty unusual to have fog two straight days in a row here, not counting the early morning stuff. Temps barely moved all day, generally hovering around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I've read a few AFDs that have mentioned thunderstorm complexes and development in southern pacific and how this is an example of changing of the guard in the arctic regions. There is still an immense amount of cold air bottled up into Siberia and Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 lmao So I guess the Euro saw its shadow? Lol! That quote from Gino is great! More clouds and fog today. High 36°, Low 28° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Friday, February 3rd: Hi: 39F Lo: 31F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 8MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The GFS is trying to bring the motherload of cold air in 5 days from now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Lake effect in the UP will be measured in FEET. Jackpot LES location Herman, MI with 46 inches! Thats my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Lake effect in the UP will be measured in FEET. Jackpot LES location Herman, MI with 46 inches! Thats my call. Believe it when I see it. Euro ensembles say no. NAEFS says no. CPC says no. I'll stay away from the OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 A very cold moderate rain falling right now. Have picked up 0.12" so far. Temps are hovering just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The GFS is trying to bring the motherload of cold air in 5 days from now! It sticks around for awhile too on the GFS.. Tonight's Euro looks solid too for some cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The idea of a colder pattern (which of course would be moderated without snowcover) has some legs. I think the question, as we have seen all winter, is whether it is transient or locks in. Sorta have to be skeptical of anything sustained given how this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 My met professor at Ball State (who now lives in Alaska) is 100% in on a cold and very stormy/snowy end of February and beginning of March across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. He is very very conservative in his forecasting too, so when I saw his facebook status update earlier, I was a little surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Better late than never and hopefully it continues right through spring and summer to get revenge on all the folks around town who can't stop talking about this beautiful non-winter. What are the odds of three hot summer in a row anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 If I had a quarter for every time I've read this this winter, I could buy bowme a boat load of brats and have enough left over for Super Bowl tickets... REMAINED CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT AS COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND DAY 7 AND FURTHER REFINEMENT IN TIMING EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. It LOOKS like it may come to fruition this time. However, I'm beginning to feel like Charlie Brown with Lucy holding the ball for me to kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I wonder who made the deal with the devil to get temps like this in Indianapolis for Super Bowl week? Though I guess today will be relatively crappy with temps only in the low 40's. Monday: 58 Tuesday: 61 Wednesday: 60 Thursday: 54 Friday: 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Its a nice late winter saturday morning. The sun is starting to break out. Going to go for a morning stroll through the city park then hitting the farmers market. It appears things have dried out enough to manage to avoid copious amounts of mud. Projected High in the mid 40s today gives full permission to venture outside without a winter coat. Saw the 0z suit lasst night. Im torn on wether its was full of **** (like its normally been) or finaly latching onto a solution of a fast/short or long duration winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 OMG the sun is out...how long will it last? Neither the EURO or the GFS (0z/6z) look all that cold for here. More like near normal. Feb norms are still very cold in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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