baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Alright, since Cmichweather was too much of a wimp to start a thread, I decided I will. We definitely need something on this as there will be some low/mid level inverted trough associated snowfall across ND/northern MN. A pretty classic setup for ND as inverted troughs are almost always associated with the better snow events. Much of the snowfall is going to line up along the relatively narrow divergent jet axis ejecting ahead of the mean trough. There really isn't going to be a lot of synoptic scale mass ascent as the strongest upper height falls will be relegated to the base of the trough as the secondary speed max ejects into the OV/Great Lakes. Classic inverted trof on the GFS through ND. GOM is closed as usual, so PWATS are pretty pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Should be worth noting all guidance suggests an impressive dual jet configuration aloft and a very favorable (not narrow) region of mesoscale mass ascent. This will be the precip producer. RGEM and NAM both stall (to a small degree) the inverted trough as the southern anomaly ejects into the Great Lakes. Either way the potential exists someone gets 6" under enhanced meso banding given the favorable jet divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Hey B_I, when you get the chance...bring some of your expert analysis to the NM thread...i'd love to hear what's expected for my state... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 0Z NAM still trying to adjust to the strength of the lead anomaly. In fact, the NAM hints at what the RGEM was suggesting earlier...a dominant lead anomaly and strong cyclogenesis well west of the OV/Great Lakes. This looks much more interesting than the 2 part solutions which emphasize the southern speed max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Hey B_I, when you get the chance...bring some of your expert analysis to the NM thread...i'd love to hear what's expected for my state... *sigh* or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 *sigh* or not... Haha I saw your comment, but when I went to your thread I didn't see any specific discussion. Seems like the events to follow are the high wind event (although probably not specific to ABQ) and the incoming cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Haha I saw your comment, but when I went to your thread I didn't see any specific discussion. Seems like the events to follow are the high wind event (although probably not specific to ABQ) and the incoming cutoff. exactly...we don't have anyone who can do analysis like you can...and it's an all encompassing thread since there are so few posters and such a large geographical area covered... i was hoping you could give some insight into what the cut-off will do in my area...like the same type of stuff you post in here when you are doing an analysis of your area...but visit my thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 exactly...we don't have anyone who can do analysis like you can...and it's an all encompassing thread since there are so few posters and such a large geographical area covered... i was hoping you could give some insight into what the cut-off will do in my area...like the same type of stuff you post in here when you are doing an analysis of your area...but visit my thread Yeah it is definitely a problem. Personally I don't see any reason why we have NM part of the TX discussion...it just doesn't fit. It would be closer to the MT West disco...even then the region is still too all encompassing...but it would fit better there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Things might get a bit interesting here (MSP) late tonight and on Monday. The GFS, NAM, and GEM all showing a nice shot of snow with a TROWAL signature showing up... 12z NAM spits out 0.34" or so after 12z Monday that should mostly be snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 and of course the 12z GFS now shifts that further east across SE MN and western WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 and of course the 12z GFS now shifts that further east across SE MN and western WI. 12z euro giving msp 0.30...0.24 of that looks all snow SUN 18Z 22-JAN -2.8 -5.6 1005 74 57 0.01 549 545 MON 00Z 23-JAN -2.2 -4.7 1003 89 59 0.02 546 544 MON 06Z 23-JAN -2.5 -4.8 1002 93 61 0.03 541 540 MON 12Z 23-JAN -4.1 -6.9 1003 88 99 0.11 535 533 MON 18Z 23-JAN -2.9 -10.2 1006 76 96 0.11 536 532 TUE 00Z 24-JAN -3.7 -10.4 1011 74 71 0.02 541 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Given the way this winter has gone...I'll take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Temp dropped to 32.5 and have some rain snow mix at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Temp dropped to 32.5 and have some rain snow mix at the moment. Pretty sloppy and disorganized storm up there...the crappy PWATS and deep southern stream anomaly really kept this from getting any organization together. Seems freezing drizzle and freezing fog will be the bigger problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Pretty sloppy and disorganized storm up there...the crappy PWATS and deep southern stream anomaly really kept this from getting any organization together. Seems freezing drizzle and freezing fog will be the bigger problem. WARNING. NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUD. It's been 25 and freezing drizzle all day here in MSP. Just got home from work and the side roads/sidewalks/parking lots are complete crap, but highways are fine. Looks like we are finally getting a bit of deeper moisture in the area soon so should start to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 WARNING. NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUD. It's been 25 and freezing drizzle all day here in MSP. Just got home from work and the side roads/sidewalks/parking lots are complete crap, but highways are fine. Looks like we are finally getting a bit of deeper moisture in the area soon so should start to see some snow. What a soupy mess. The RAP surface map shows the massive region of IFR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Yeah, that 32.5 temp just would not budge downwards and go to full snow until 12:30 am. I got a little excited when DMX went 2-4 but as it is I may eek out 1 inch before the end. Snowing nice now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 1.5 here from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 1.5 here and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Ended up with a little over an inch, roads very slick from the rain/frz rain before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Had a couple of nice bursts of snow...with the last one coming through right now. We're probably at 1.5-2".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Nice, glad to see everyone mustered some snow. I just woke up to a bunch of people posting FB pics from around MN...looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Ended up with a little over an inch, roads very slick from the rain/frz rain before hand. I used to work for a private company that forecast for Iowa DOT. Did they do much pretreating of the roads beforehand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I used to work for a private company that forecast for Iowa DOT. Did they do much pretreating of the roads beforehand? Not that I noticed, but I was on county and city roads, even if they had we switched over to plain old rain/drizzle for most of the afternoon into the early evening so I'm not sure how effective pre-treating would have been. Did a good job of getting the roads cleared though, while they were lousy when I went to class at 9 am, by the time I went home at 11:30 conditions were much improved(Salted and sanded the heck out of the roads, esp the county). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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