ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I just ran my Wxsim model forecast and it sees temps remaining below freezing from tomorrow evening through around 8am Monday morning. During this time there appears around .05" of drizzle may fall. The fact (which JB pointed out earlier this week and came to fruition) that the models will miss the low level cold plus the snow cover likely to still be in place by Monday AM....could very well make tomorrow's light "event" a potential problem. I see the point and click for my backyard has 33 with a chance of a mix of snow and rain. Any thoughts out there from the professionals on this potential? Thanks! Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm still waiting for JB's cold that is vile or the weather that is wild from the past two weeks to verify... but all kidding aside, agree with the threat for icy weather on Sunday night. Was just discussing this with someone via email...could suck in Central PA into the outer PA burbs (N/W of Philly) if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I just ran my Wxsim model forecast and it sees temps remaining below freezing from tomorrow evening through around 8am Monday morning. During this time there appears around .05" of drizzle may fall. The fact (which JB pointed out earlier this week and came to fruition) that the models will miss the low level cold plus the snow cover likely to still be in place by Monday AM....could very well make tomorrow's light "event" a potential problem. I see the point and click for my backyard has 33 with a chance of a mix of snow and rain. Any thoughts out there from the professionals on this potential? Thanks! Paul Paul, Based on the 10m and 850mb fcst winds off today's GFS run (IMO), yeah especially where there is some elevation involved. A positive with today's event and tomorrow's continued clean-up, there should be some leftover if not new salt, brine on most roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Tony, Looks like the team in Mount Holly are as usual a few steps ahead....just went back and looked at the point and click and now it shows some -ZR with a low of 30 Thanks! Paul Paul, Based on the 10m and 850mb fcst winds off today's GFS run (IMO), yeah especially where there is some elevation involved. A positive with today's event and tomorrow's continued clean-up, there should be some leftover if not new salt, brine on most roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Freezing Rain Advisory....Berks county is on the southern end of advisory area...not expecting much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Latest Wxsim shows mainly light sleet for NW Chesco but temps remaining below freezing through 8am tomorrow...would clearly prefer that to and -ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Did we just go from a freezing drizzle advisory to a freezing rain advisory? or am I hallucinating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Oops, just caught it. Freezing rain advisory was placed this AM, with the hazard type of freezing drizzle. I guess I shouldn't be operating with 8 tabs open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wonder how far south the freezing rain will go? Will it reach into the city? Also I am noticing that Wednesday now looks like freezing rain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wonder how far south the freezing rain will go? Will it reach into the city? Also I am noticing that Wednesday now looks like freezing rain too Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Could be an interesting early AM. Only 24 here now at 1 PM in Montgomery Cty. Had a low of 7 last night. I'm in an area that is a little colder area in the center on Montgomery Cty. PA. No melting here at all so far. Be interesting to see if the advisory is brought down another level of counties later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Only 23 here. Models are pushing the rise above freezing ahead a few hours, now it's almost to sunrise. Things are gonna get interesting tomorrow morning where precip falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Updated Wxsim for NW Chesco has temps slowly rising overnight to 29.8 by 7am. It indicates light sleet will begin by 10pm this evening and continue through 8am tomorrow morning. A little ZR should mix in and change to all ZR by 9am when temps rise just above freezing. Total precip while very light (.06") could be a problem with the surfaces cold and with little if any snow melt today. No advisory yet for Chesco but a few miles up the road in Berks they are already under a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Updated Wxsim for NW Chesco has temps slowly rising overnight to 29.8 by 7am. It indicates light sleet will begin by 10pm this evening and continue through 8am tomorrow morning. A little ZR should mix in and change to all ZR by 9am when temps rise just above freezing. Total precip while very light (.06") could be a problem with the surfaces cold and with little if any snow melt today. No advisory yet for Chesco but a few miles up the road in Berks they are already under a watch Does Wxsim see 50 for tomorrow like our forecast says? I see in the Mt. Holly AFD warm advection seems reluctant to get much north of us due to the snow cover. Upper 30's low 40's in the LV. That may help save some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Nope...Wxsim has a high of only 38.6 tomorrow- the local point and click has temps rising to 36 by 4am....at that time Wxsim says only 28.5.... Does Wxsim see 50 for tomorrow like our forecast says? I see in the Mt. Holly AFD warm advection seems reluctant to get much north of us due to the snow cover. Upper 30's low 40's in the LV. That may help save some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 freezing drizzle rain advisories extended into the N & W suburbs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I wonder if we will have to deal with zr as well. I don't see temps getting much above freezing if at all with the snow pack and recent cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 was just outside, and in the light I saw some very light precip falling. I looked on my car hood, and it appears to be snow, very small column or needle shaped "flakes". Anyone else seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 was just outside, and in the light I saw some very light precip falling. I looked on my car hood, and it appears to be snow, very small column or needle shaped "flakes". Anyone else seeing this? Yes. Same here up the road in Bangor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Yes. Same here up the road in Bangor. thanks! May be an interesting early AM commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Selingsgrove reported light snow at the top of hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 00z NAM has the light ZR developing over the Delmarva and moving into PHL area after midnight, and NNJ late night/morning. Spotty freezing drizzle prior to that, which can be just as dangerous on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 yeah, pretty cool how it's snowing outside. Nothing on radar, just low level moisture. temps are still cold. should be an interrsting morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 yeah, pretty cool how it's snowing outside. Nothing on radar, just low level moisture. temps are still cold. should be an interrsting morning. KDIX is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Very, very light drizzle outside...28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I went out about 20 minutes ago to move the cars and it was lightly drizzling. 26.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Light snow new coating on everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Light snow now...this wasn't in the forecast. Still 28F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 KDIX is down. KDIX is currently undergoing the upgrade the to Dual-Pol. Here is additional information as a reference: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Curious about any icing reports in ne PA or NNJ this morning. tx walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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