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Jan 22nd/23rd Severe Weather Outbreak


andyhb

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An extremely dangerous situation shaping up for the greater Nashville

area as a line with winds of 70-80 MPH is about to hammer them.

Looks very similar to February 24 of last year when widespread

wind damage happened along with a pair of tornadoes.

Ya that storm looks to be taking aim right at Nashville now.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0125 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-ERN TN...MS EXCEPT COASTAL AND NWRN

PORTIONS...WRN/CENTRAL/NRN AL...SMALL PART OF NERN LA...EXTREME NWRN

GA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 230725Z - 230930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E BEHIND PRIMARY SQUALL/CONFLUENCE LINE

OUTLINED BELOW. OTHERWISE CONTINUE WW. FARTHER E...ADDITIONAL WW

MAY BE REQUIRED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER PORTIONS MID-ERN TN AND

AL.

VERY FAVORABLE SUPERIMPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL

CONTINUE NEAR AND SW OF WARM FRONT...ANALYZED AT 07Z NEAR LINE FROM

TOI...BHM...50 SW BNA WHERE IT WAS BEING OVERTAKEN BY MAIN

CONVECTIVE BAND. LATTER CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD

ABOUT 45 KT ACROSS MID TN...AND ABOUT 35 KT FROM NERN LA INTO WRN

MS...POSING THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL/BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES.

VWP AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SRH 300-600 J/KG AND

EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT OVER MOST OF MS AND WRN/NRN

AL...AMIDST MLCAPE VALUES 500-1200 J/KG. GIVEN SUCH

CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES STILL EXISTS AS

WELL...PRIMARILY WITH SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR...AND THOSE

INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE RICHLY LADEN WITH LOW-LEVEL

VORTICITY. SUPERCELLS MAY BE EITHER SEMI-DISCRETE...OR EMBEDDED IN

SHORT LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-900 MB

CONFLUENCE LINES THAT ARE EVIDENT IN OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL WIND DATA

OVER CENTRAL/ERN MS AND NERN MS.

OVER NRN PORTIONS WW...MAIN TSTM BAND WILL OVERTAKE MORE

SLOWLY-MOVING SFC WARM FRONT FROM NW-SE...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING NRN

BOUND OF OPTIMAL BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SWD OUT OF ERN TN WITH

TIME. NONETHELESS...WARM FRONT IS SHALLOW...AND HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR

MAY PENETRATE TO SFC WELL TO ITS NE...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER

ELEVATIONS. THEREFORE...PRIND DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND

ACROSS MOST OF ERN TN AND NERN AL. INVOF SRN PORTIONS WW...SVR TSTM

POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD GULF COAST...AS

STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING SHIFTS POLEWARD AWAY FROM AREA AND

CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.

..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2012

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