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Jan 22nd/23rd Severe Weather Outbreak


andyhb

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Discrete showers/cells popping in Central/Northern MS, considering the environment they're in, that may not bode well.

Judging from the radar, doesn't look like anything too explosive yet, just some junk showers ahead of the main line but we'll have to wait and see. Listening to the WREG out of Memphis.......the NWS may have to coin a new official severe weather term: "respect the polygon". They must have said this a hundred times and I'm sure most don't have any idea what they're talking about. :P

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

918 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTH CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 945 PM CST

* AT 918 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RONDO...OR 8 MILES

NORTH OF MARVELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARIANNA.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

947 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

WEST CENTRAL GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CST

* AT 948 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FORKED DEER...OR 10

MILES NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EATON AND

FORKED DEER.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

946 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

WESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

NORTHWESTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

NORTHERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CST

* AT 946 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

TUNICA...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST FRANCIS NATIONAL PARK...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS

OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN TUNICA...NORTHWESTERN

TATE...SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND WESTERN DESOTO COUNTIES.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR HORN LAKE...HORSESHOE LAKE...

LAKE MCKELLAR...MIDWAY LAKE AND ROBCO LAKE.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0947 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

VALID 230347Z - 230445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

PORTIONS OF WW 5 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 06Z

EXPIRATION WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS

FARTHER E/S IN WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN/CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...AND PERHAPS

NERN LA.

BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EWD ACROSS NERN AR ON APPROACH TO

THE MS RIVER...WITH A MORE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OCCURRING IN SERN

AR. LONGER-LIVED MESOCYCLONES HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED IN AR...WITH A

TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES. THIS SUGGESTS

SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVOLVING INTO A COMPARATIVELY

GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER E/SE...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAS

SLOWLY DEEPENED FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA INTO N-CNTRL MS. THESE

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AS

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS NOTED A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL

COUPLET...WELL AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT BACK IN NERN TX. GIVEN

THE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS REASONABLE THAT A

COUPLE OF CELLS WOULD MATURE WITHIN THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND DEEPEN

INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0947 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

VALID 230347Z - 230445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

PORTIONS OF WW 5 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 06Z

EXPIRATION WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS

FARTHER E/S IN WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN/CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...AND PERHAPS

NERN LA.

BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EWD ACROSS NERN AR ON APPROACH TO

THE MS RIVER...WITH A MORE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OCCURRING IN SERN

AR. LONGER-LIVED MESOCYCLONES HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED IN AR...WITH A

TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES. THIS SUGGESTS

SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVOLVING INTO A COMPARATIVELY

GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER E/SE...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAS

SLOWLY DEEPENED FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA INTO N-CNTRL MS. THESE

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AS

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS NOTED A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL

COUPLET...WELL AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT BACK IN NERN TX. GIVEN

THE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS REASONABLE THAT A

COUPLE OF CELLS WOULD MATURE WITHIN THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND DEEPEN

INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012

Damn, this is gonna be a long night. I thought the discrete threat was coming to an end.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

955 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

EAST CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CST

* AT 955 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR

SIMSBORO...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUGHES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

EDMONDSON...HORSESHOE LAKE...MARION...PINCKNEY...SIMSBORO...

SUNSET...WEST MEMPHIS...DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS...FRAYSER...MIDTOWN

MEMPHIS...SOUTHWEST MEMPHIS...MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AND T

O FULLER STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE...CORONEE LAKE

AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

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The polygon is just N of the City, and the couplet is also north of the City.

It looked as though there was enchanced circulation north of the city, however

the weak rotation that showed up in which I was referring to was the circulation

to the west-southwest of the city. Hence, I was surprised to see a TOR include

Memphis at all. It should have been from Bartlett and Millington onto the east.

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Too many narrow polygons being issued for marginal circulations. They are

interlocking and becoming very confusing as different storms are crossing in

and out every few minutes. Makes it tough for the public to follow.

The one legimate-looking TOR storm is the one I have been watching for about

an hour which moved through Maury City and is now east of Dyersburg.

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