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Jan 22nd/23rd Severe Weather Outbreak


andyhb

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0837 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...6...

VALID 230237Z - 230400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5...6...CONTINUES.

NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF QLCS FROM SWRN IL INTO NERN AR SHOULD

ACCELERATE E/NEWD WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. GREATER

TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE BROKEN SRN PORTION OF THE

LINE ACROSS E-CNTRL/SERN AR EVOLVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER.

AS OF 0230Z...A 450-MI LONG QLCS EXTENDED FROM SWRN IL INTO S-CNTRL

AR. GREATEST RELATIVE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF

THIS LINE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS NOW PROGRESSING INTO

PARTS OF E-CNTRL/SERN AR. EFFECTIVE SRH WILL REMAIN EXTREME AOA 500

M2/S2 AND WITHIN THE BROADEST WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 62-64 F

SURFACE DEW POINTS...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES REMAINS

HIGH AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES SWRN TN/NWRN MS.

THE SOLID LINEAR STRUCTURE FARTHER N WITHIN A COMPARATIVELY NARROW

SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR SHOULD PREDOMINATELY FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS.

ALTHOUGH OBSERVED METAR GUSTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE

THUS FAR IN SERN MO/NERN AR...THE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE LINE

AMIDST STRONG MID-LEVEL DCVA MAY AID IN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS

IT CROSSES THE MS RIVER TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. FOR ADDITIONAL

INFORMATION FARTHER N OF WW 6...PLEASE SEE MCD 50.

..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON 35228948 33519037 33139115 33259203 33399251 36279063

37708980 38198946 38458862 38528812 38278806 37738827

35228948

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ARKANSAS AR-MONROE AR-

841 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND

NORTHERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CST...

AT 835 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF

ALMYRA...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STUTTGART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55

MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

ST. CHARLES... PALMER... DE WITT...

ALMYRA... RAGTOWN... PINE CITY...

LAWRENCEVILLE... INDIAN BAY... CROCKETTS BLUFF...

WATERS BAYOU... VOSS LAKE... VAN...

THOMAS RESERVOIR... STINKING BAY... SOUTHERN LAKE...

SIMPSON LAKE... SHOOK RESERVOIR... SANDY BAYOU...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

843 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CST

* AT 843 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 25 MILES WEST OF WATKINS

CORNER...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF DE WITT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARIANNA

AND MARVELL.

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR WESTERN

ST. FRANCIS AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 845 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR

PALESTINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORREST

CITY...MADISON...PALESTINE...L'ANGVILLE...POSEY...BLOSSOM...

GOODWIN...FOUR GUMS...HAWKINS...SLONIKERS MILL...HORTON...

ROSENBAUM...DODSONS CORNER AND BONAIR.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

843 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CST

* AT 843 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 25 MILES WEST OF WATKINS

CORNER...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF DE WITT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARIANNA

AND MARVELL.

Marvell population: 1395, marianna: 4115

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LEE AR-PHILLIPS AR-

858 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CST FOR NORTHERN

PHILLIPS AND SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 857 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES

NORTH OF ALMYRA AT 845 MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM WILL

BE HEADING TOWARD THE TOWNS OF MARVELL AND TURKEY SCRATCH BY 915 PM.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAGRANGE...

LAKE VIEW...MARIANNA...MARVELL...THOMASVILLE...FELTON...SCOTT

VALLEY...SPRING CREEK...BIG CREEK CORNER...VINEYARD...TURKEY

SCRATCH...CYPRESS CORNER...CREIGH AND CYPERT.

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Lets hope Memphis doesn't get something monsterous.

If that one cell that has the long lived tor with it keeps cycling then :yikes:

Marianna is 45 miles SE of Memphis at the speeds these things are moving that cell could be in the Memphis area in about a hr.....there doesnt seem to be a reason for it to shutoff either...

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"BE HEADING TOWARD THE TOWNS OF MARVELL AND TURKEY SCRATCH BY 915 PM."

Sorry, know this is OT, but I couldn't imagine having to explain to people that I lived in a town called Turkey Scratch.

probably deserves to get wiped off the map. :unsure:

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If that one cell that has the long lived tor with it keeps cycling then :yikes:

Marianna is 45 miles SE of Memphis at the speeds these things are moving that cell could be in the Memphis area in about a hr.....there doesnt seem to be a reason for it to shutoff either...

Thankfully it had substatially weakened last check I made. Thing was around for like 2hrs+

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probably deserves to get wiped off the map. :unsure:

:lol: Yikes, that's harsh.....but honestly I'd usually make a comment like that as well if it wasn't for such a horrific severe season last year (and I guess continuing as we speak. Almost kind of feel bad even being interested in severe days like this after what happened in 2011.

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LEE AR-PHILLIPS AR-

911 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CST FOR NORTHERN

PHILLIPS AND SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TURKEY

SCRATCH...OR NEAR MARVELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAGRANGE...

LAKE VIEW...MARIANNA...MARVELL...THOMASVILLE...FELTON...SCOTT

VALLEY...SPRING CREEK...BIG CREEK CORNER...VINEYARD...TURKEY

SCRATCH...CYPRESS CORNER...CREIGH AND CYPERT.

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