HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 march is my favortite winter month. Although the past few years have been anamolies it's one of my favorite months to ski in NNE. Even April for that matter. lol Sugarloaf used to have trivia signs hanging on their lift towers and one of them read: Did you know Sugarloafs snowiest months (in order) are February, April and March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Interesting changes on the 00z NAM and GFS. Both showing the morphologies over the E, probably because as discussed the dynamics of the southern stream are not over land out West - the handling has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Interesting changes on the 00z NAM and GFS. Both showing the morphologies over the E, probably because as discussed the dynamics of the southern stream are not over land out West - the handling has changed. good changes or bad? tell me now because i'm about to go to sleep! what will it be...nightmares or dreams?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Apples to oranges.Dec is a cold wx month and a winter month and a low sun angle month..March is D..none of the above..You FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 good changes or bad? tell me now because i'm about to go to sleep! what will it be...nightmares or dreams?!? Bad ...as is, for snow lovers. More amped. The problem there is that there is no antecedent cold, or too limited. Extremely complex stream interaction, and the antecedent conditions could be incorrect - if that is any consolation. GFS is warm as is, though - coming in stronger, so S/W delivers some latent heat into the W Atlantic, which then assists in bouncing the recurve more NW. If there was more cold, it would be a great 6 hour pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 cogno! more nightmares. the euro speaks while i sleeps. but extremely complex so could change....and indices are at least moving in a good direction. thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That would put any end to any debate about whether GC can hold snow pack this week.... Bad ...as is, for snow lovers. More amped. The problem there is that there is no antecedent cold, or too limited. Extremely complex stream interaction, and the antecedent conditions could be incorrect - if that is any consolation. GFS is warm as is, though - coming in stronger, so S/W delivers some latent heat into the W Atlantic, which then assists in bouncing the recurve more NW. If there was more cold, it would be a great 6 hour pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 More 4 letter cuss words spilling out of my mouth over the GFS tonight. Awful...we can't seem to catch a break from these **** cutters! Verbatim GFS is likely a rainer for GC and all the way into ski country of NNE Thursday night. Looks like it could start as snow or ice for NNE before flipping to rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Until some semblance of a -Nao actually happens...it's pretty tough. The weekend worked out for coastal SNE largely because it was just such a weak s/w. They had to get lucky at some point I guess. These torches (even when brief) are just ridiculous this year. Last week I go from -12 to 43 and rain within 36 hours. This week from -7 yesterday to a peak in the low 40's probably over the next few hours.Torched right to the Canadian border. 48 now in Potsdam, NY. More 4 letter cuss words spilling out of my mouth over the GFS tonight. Awful...we can't seem to catch a break from these **** cutters! Verbatim GFS is likely a rainer for GC and all the way into ski country of NNE Thursday night. Looks like it could start as snow or ice for NNE before flipping to rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Maybe if I start pronouncing it "Mahch" we'll get snow here in Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro is not as amped as the other models for Friday...it tracks it over Cape Cod...it probably keeps NNE all snow for the northen half of VT/NH...looks like some icing issues in interior SNE..esp pike northward after a bit of snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro is not as amped as the other models for Friday...it tracks it over Cape Cod...it probably keeps NNE all snow for the northen half of VT/NH...looks like some icing issues in interior SNE..esp pike northward after a bit of snow on the front end. I'm glad we're not seeing the Euro as amped as the other models for Friday...This could leave the door open for the other models to come down off such an amped solution...but then again we could always see the Euro move towards the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I'm glad we're not seeing the Euro as amped as the other models for Friday...This could leave the door open for the other models to come down off such an amped solution...but then again we could always see the Euro move towards the other guidance Yea, I'm a little more hopeful that we see a colder rain, while GC gets some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Yea, I'm a little more hopeful that we see a colder rain, while GC gets some ice. For selfish reasons if this storm is indeed a very late Friday/early Saturday threat I hope we get rain here...b/c of the storm this past Saturday I lost 9 hours of work as basketball practice was cancelled and tomorrow (well later today) my boss at the rink isn't doing ice maintenance at the rink and when we have it I work 11-6 as opposed to 4-6 so I am losing 14 hours off my town check next week which is a bit over $100 I'll be losing...not really going to like that for two consecutive weeks, especially considering there is this exercise machine I want to invest in (it's fantastic...my friend who graduated from WVU with sports fitness degree looked around with me...and said if I want to bulk up this would be perfect...it's $180). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 For selfish reasons if this storm is indeed a very late Friday/early Saturday threat I hope we get rain here...b/c of the storm this past Saturday I lost 9 hours of work as basketball practice was cancelled and tomorrow (well later today) my boss at the rink isn't doing ice maintenance at the rink and when we have it I work 11-6 as opposed to 4-6 so I am losing 14 hours off my town check next week which is a bit over $100 I'll be losing...not really going to like that for two consecutive weeks, especially considering there is this exercise machine I want to invest in (it's fantastic...my friend who graduated from WVU with sports fitness degree looked around with me...and said if I want to bulk up this would be perfect...it's $180). Its not a late Friday threat...its a late Thu night and early Friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Its not a late Friday threat...its a late Thu night and early Friday event. Thank God. Comprehension of the time stamps FTL. Well one less thing I have to worry about at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 06z GFS doesn't even really get the southern stream vortmax involved at all on the Thursday night system. Just a quick shot of precip that is out of here by lunchtime Friday...could be some icing in the interior that we still need to watch. Maybe a brief period of snow at the onset...lasting a bit longer for NNE. Overall not a very exciting system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Nice to see see things trend colder once again for the first system Thursday night enough to bring wintry precip even farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Nice to see see things trend colder once again for the first system Thursday night enough to bring wintry precip even farther south Rain for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Rain for you. I'm fully expecting a snow to ice event here. Doubt it's rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I'm fully expecting a snow to ice event here. Doubt it's rain I don't think so. Unless this goes south, you could be brief snow, but you'll go to rain I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't think so. Unless this goes south, you could be brief snow, but you'll go to rain I think. If it secondaries off LI like the Euro has..it won't be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 If it secondaries off LI like the Euro has..it won't be rain I don't know, it's a crappy airmass out ahead of it. I think GC and maybe Will and points north could get some snow to ice, but it looks ctrappy as depicted. Good luck. Could be a 33F rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I am so out of the loop and need a whole lotta catching up. Glanced at the NAM/GFS and see what looks like a whole lotta rain. I see a BOX AFD that talks of advisory snow possibilities inland. What the heck is going on?xx` Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Not sure I've seen as much spread as the GFS ensembles show...its probably heavily dependent on how much the southern stream gets involved...but this is a pretty remarkable spread for only 72h out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I think the euro will win this depiction too from a few days ago. I thought maybe the flow across the nrn tier would be progressive enough, but it appears the nrn stream will buckle just enough to force the low north into SNE. Not that it matters what op runs show 6 days out because that could change, but interesting anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I saw those. That's awful for 72-84 hrs out..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I saw those. That's awful for 72-84 hrs out..lol. Because of the difference in how much the southern energy lingers back, some members are producing a significant storm for Saturday that other guidance doesn't even have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I am so out of the loop and need a whole lotta catching up. Glanced at the NAM/GFS and see what looks like a whole lotta rain. I see a BOX AFD that talks of advisory snow possibilities inland. What the heck is going on?xx` There's a low probability for more snow/ice if some of these colder solutions work out, but we'll have to get really lucky to get advisory snow I think in the deep interior...might see more ice though. Hard to say for sure. Euro actually had a lot of ice for N ORH county and your area after maybe an inch or two of snow...Euro ensembles were warmer though than the OP. The spread in the GFS ensembles do show that there is still a decent amount of uncertainty, but at the moment I'd hedge warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 There's a low probability for more snow/ice if some of these colder solutions work out, but we'll have to get really lucky to get advisory snow I think in the deep interior...might see more ice though. Hard to say for sure. Euro actually had a lot of ice for N ORH county and your area after maybe an inch or two of snow...Euro ensembles were warmer though than the OP. The spread in the GFS ensembles do show that there is still a decent amount of uncertainty, but at the moment I'd hedge warmer. Thanks, Will. Hedge warmer, hope colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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