Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I would think this is not bad at all. Yea we might oscillate but no where near the Dec pattern. Agreed it's nothing like Dec/Early Jan...but if we end up with 36 degree rainers while Powderfreak is ballz to weenie deep in Powder not from the upslope variety,, people are not going to be able to handle it. We have about 1 month left of winter..becasue as we know..March is no longer a winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Agreed it's nothing like Dec/Early Jan...but if we end up with 36 degree rainers while Powderfreak is ballz to weenie deep in Powder not from the upslope variety,, people are not going to be able to handle it. We have about 1 month left of winter..becasue as we know..March is no longer a winter month I am hoping this thaw week,climo normal by the way, is just a transient thaw with a return to normal or below. I hate to bring it up again but the month delayed is kind of working out . Hopefully the delay in the Cyrosphere response is translated into the first couple of weeks of March so we have an extended season of chances. In a sense I could see March being a crazy month especially for CNE and much more NNE perhaps even 01 type if all falls into place. Winter is far from over or even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 The only thing that is certain is uncertainty its self ... The Euro cluster may or may not be at odds with the GEFs, but I'm not sure the verification scores (particularly for this season) requires dumping the GEFs in lieu of the Euro's. Either way, I definitely would not presume accuracy in using the Euro operational runs that are depicting times intervals beyond D5 - the models has shown particularly high discontuity tendencies, at times readjusting more than mere detailed features but the enitre mass fields. The operatoinal Euro "flattening" western N/A heights while the GEFS teleconnection is show +1 PNA is suspect to me. The AO is still negative in means going forward, and is currently -1SD and falling per the CPC. Together with a PNA that is rising both at the CDC and CPC agencies through the end of the month and into the first week of February, I believe signals [probably] the best storm signal in general; regardless of whether there is an actual system on a given run or not, that is the general canvas. Btw, the MJO is currently violating natural physical laws by strengthening smartly while moving backwards in time ... Sarcasm aside, it's left Phase 5 and gone completely 4 according to the Wheeler diagram, with moderate strength and apparently gaining. Most the teleconnection discussion from tropical forcing I've read where discussing MJO's pertains to waves propagating eastward. Don't know about waves that are actively moving west...interesting. Frankly, I am not entirely certain that the Wheeler diagram graph actually means it is literally "moving" west; but perhaps what is really going on is that the wave is redeveloping W giving that illusion. Equally interesting... Either way, there is an implication here - I think - that the MJO's correlation on the flow may not be the same given this current behavior. For the time being, the better period for storm ... this Friday's deal was really only very early in that period. It can still happen, whether that is true or not. About that, given the current multi-guidance type blend obviously this would not be an NJ Modeled/Clipper detonation deal, but more of a weak side Miller A that has a lot of moisture with it. Heights off the SE Coast of the U.S. don't shimmer as being very compressible to me, right now, so my guess is that if there is going to be southern stream dynamics strong enough to resist damping between that ridge SE and the amplitude arriving from the NW, it more likely to trek closer to the coast as it comes up. Makes better sense with the NAO being neutral/positive such as it as. The southern stream system is currently just barely tickling the West Coast, but will be more fully on board over land during the next 18 hours - it's possible that there is some morphology in the depictions in the next couple of model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 With the sun waking up, hopes of a -NAO and blocking look to diminish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 With the sun waking up, hopes of a -NAO and blocking look to diminish. This statement has no meaning without a context - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z Euro has a "unbelievable" bomb on its extended ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z Euro has a "unbelievable" bomb on its extended ha Doesn't it always. In another run it will be forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z Euro has a "unbelievable" bomb on its extended ha This statement has no meaning without further context.. Please show maps!!! And details of what it would be like... I'd rather live in fantasy land than reality this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Doesn't it always. In another run it will be forgotten. No, it doesn't alway - and it is not shocking to see this emerging now given to what I was just discussing. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen but higher confidence that SOMEthing will happen when the antecedent teleconnector trends are taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 A question about the general pattern we're in right now: Is the only reason it's not an all-out record blow-torch because we have a slightly -AO which is allowing the PV to hang around our side of the hemisphere or is it because there's some lag from the brief -EPO we had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 This statement has no meaning without further context.. Please show maps!!! And details of what it would be like... I'd rather live in fantasy land than reality this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Agreed it's nothing like Dec/Early Jan...but if we end up with 36 degree rainers while Powderfreak is ballz to weenie deep in Powder not from the upslope variety,, people are not going to be able to handle it. We have about 1 month left of winter..becasue as we know..March is no longer a winter month It never was. It's a meteorological spring month, but it can produce some of our biggest storms. In the past 29 years it's averaged 9.9" of snow or approximately 17% of my annual snow total (57.2"). March 1993 featured 35" of snow after a similar amount of snow that we've received this January and an average amount in February. Even if it's not as consistent as the meteorological winter months, it still produces and should not be discounted, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 It never was. It's a meteorological spring month, but it can produce some of our biggest storms. In the past 29 years it's averaged 9.9" of snow or approximately 17% of my annual snow total (57.2"). March 1993 featured 35" of snow after a similar amount of snow that we've received this January and an average amount in February. Even if it's not as consistent as the meteorological winter months, it still produces and should not be discounted, imho. IIRC March is actually the snowiest climo month at ORH . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 IIRC March is actually the snowiest climo month at ORH . Nice! Mine is January with 16.6". FWIW, I'm due north of Tolland and about 40mi SW of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Kevin is on a March is not a winter month fetish since we haven't had snow in March since 2007 essentially. In 2009 we had a statistically ok March since we got a low level KU in the first few days of the month. So 4 years of low to no snow means that's it. Case closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 A question about the general pattern we're in right now: Is the only reason it's not an all-out record blow-torch because we have a slightly -AO which is allowing the PV to hang around our side of the hemisphere or is it because there's some lag from the brief -EPO we had? Perhaps, though it is too difficult to be certain just the same. The AO and EPO stuff certainly isn't helping a warming trend along, no. But you can have +AO/+EPO with cooler than normal tempts just the same because of a -NAO and/or a +PNA...as just an example. Unless these signals are very large... if the AO were say down to -4SD and the EPO had a mammouth ridge parked up there, you could certainly assume culpability there. In this case, I think the failed and/or failing warming event is probably more keyed into the fact that there has been a surplus of cold air just N of the border and available to S/Ws, and as these have progressed through each subsequent one latches on to a renewed sharply colder air mass. The EPO did briefly go negative and so the Canadian shield certainly could have benefitted in receiving a loading off that - once in, it's in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Kevin is on a March is not a winter month fetish since we haven't had snow in March since 2007 essentially. In 2009 we had a statistically ok March since we got a low level KU in the first few days of the month. So 4 years of low to no snow means that's it. Case closed. Fearing getting sucked into another one of these pointless personal weather-wish debates ... I will say that I for one am glad Marches have not produced. It's agonizing to me to sense the changing of the guard, but the current shift can't check out because the shift rotation slept in.. We all know that April is going to get butt banged by a cutt-off west Atlantic low anyway; may as well - if lucky - get a couple 3 weeks of obscene warmth earlier in March. Aprils suck. Period. Spring in New England in general is a dicey affair - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Kevin is on a March is not a winter month fetish since we haven't had snow in March since 2007 essentially. In 2009 we had a statistically ok March since we got a low level KU in the first few days of the month. So 4 years of low to no snow means that's it. Case closed. MArch blows in general esp the 2nd half of the month. I 'll take snow any month of the year..but March just seems to have vanished..so we need to make do now thru Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 At least a +PNA seems to be in the cards in the 11-15 day. Lots of agreement with that. There at times appears to be some transient ridging up in ne Canada which sometimes can act to shove lows south. We may need that early next week because we could warm then. Otherwise it doesn't look ideal, but certainly not horrible in the 11-15 day. I think this is somewhat MJO driven, as models want to bring more convection closer to the date line. If this comes as a good burst, perhaps it signifies the beginning of the end of La Nina. The +PNA may be the result we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 MArch blows in general esp the 2nd half of the month. I 'll take snow any month of the year..but March just seems to have vanished..so we need to make do now thru Feb One of the best blizzards I've seen in all my years was 3/19/56. That said...yes...2nd half has the climo of around 11/1-15 so snow is not likely. Also, as you point out, it doesn't stay around. That's why it's fun. Pure weenie delight. There are few storms better than 4/1/97. Yet a week or 2 later you'd never know it occured. My own personal fetish is the storm while it's happening. I like a nice mid winter snow cover that we have now but recognize it's variability in SNE. I'd take a bare ground year to get a 2 foot wind whipped blizzard to finish it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well tonight blows...we have pea soup snow eating fog..I mean there is 0 viz on the hill. Could cut this stuff with a knife..38.7/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I am hoping this thaw week,climo normal by the way, is just a transient thaw with a return to normal or below. I hate to bring it up again but the month delayed is kind of working out . Hopefully the delay in the Cyrosphere response is translated into the first couple of weeks of March so we have an extended season of chances. In a sense I could see March being a crazy month especially for CNE and much more NNE perhaps even 01 type if all falls into place. Winter is far from over or even close. That would be awesome and I'd completely be on board... however it seems Blizz's post was more towards SNE winter weather and his fear is that it does snow up here while its 35F rain outside GC in SNE. Not too many folks care if it dumps up here; it just seems to annoy folks on the board more than anything. But I do understand it... it always drove me nuts growing up near ALB to have big spring-time bombs with 1-2" of 35F rain, while the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites had snow up to the first story rooflines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well tonight blows...we have pea soup snow eating fog..I mean there is 0 viz on the hill. Could cut this stuff with a knife..38.7/38 Yeah it's not lookin' too good for you guys up on those hill tops in CT - you may get a 48F, 30 kt firehose going just ahead of the cold front - close call. But in any event ... 37 DP is about the cut off - if the DPs below that, snow can actually withstand a lot of abuse. 39/39 with moderate rain is hard to watch, no doubt! Up here in N. Mass we are still in the 30-35F range - pockets of zr believe it or not. It's going to be interesting to see this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Looking at the weeklies, it seems like the +PNA may be for real. They have a decent +PNA and even -NAO at that point..although I think the -NAO is more shaky, based on late behavior. Week 4 has an overall -AO look with higher heights across the North Pole. Also ridging into AK. Not very cold verbatim for these parts, but that upper level would probably be ok for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 MArch blows in general esp the 2nd half of the month. I 'll take snow any month of the year..but March just seems to have vanished..so we need to make do now thru Feb December sucked this winter...that probably means December has vanished and we won't get snow in that month anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 December sucked this winter...that probably means December has vanished and we won't get snow in that month anymore. We got 10-20" in October this year. New average for October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 December sucked this winter...that probably means December has vanished and we won't get snow in that month anymore. At least we can count on October now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well tonight blows...we have pea soup snow eating fog..I mean there is 0 viz on the hill. Could cut this stuff with a knife..38.7/38 Who cares. Snow is only fun when it's falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Who cares. Snow is only fun when it's falling Better to have had and lost than to never have had at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Who cares. Snow is only fun when it's falling wait til skiMRG sees this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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