40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't know, it's a crappy airmass out ahead of it. I think GC and maybe Will and points north could get some snow to ice, but it looks ctrappy as depicted. Good luck. Could be a 33F rain . Just let him go....he knows damn well that system blows...just trying to drive you nuts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Maybe if I start pronouncing it "Mahch" we'll get snow here in Frederick. Maybe if we stay UP ALL NIGHT, it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I started a discussion for Friday. NNE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Not sure I've seen as much spread as the GFS ensembles show...its probably heavily dependent on how much the southern stream gets involved...but this is a pretty remarkable spread for only 72h out ... That's funny! you know it's a butt banger winter when you get 12 different depictions, and 0 of them offer snow at 40 degrees N, on January 25th mind you! That's ...tough to do - I tell you what... though I've come long strides as an adult toward not allowing this stuff to affect me emotionally, I will say that from a purely cerebral perspective on the matter ... I've really worn out quite frankly and have grown tired of all this. At this point, I'm pretty much all set and wouldn't mind it if it just busted out an obnoxious early spring - hell, let's drive GW home with a +17F February - the kind that greens up lawns before March 1 that happens every 10,000 years or whatever insane unlikeliness it would be. I just don't care anymore. The jokes old. Not funny any longer. That sort of thing. It may not be very objective to say the following but you just don't get the "feeling" this time. The AO is now down to -2, and our temperatures are going the wrong way? The PNA is rising from -1 to +1SD between about 4 days ago and another 6 day from now, and it's as though we'd have to violate nuclear physics to get a cold coastal?? I flip the bird at them odds and walk away - I suggest you all do the same. Save your selves. The only up shot for me personally is that as a Disk Golfer, the ground being eradicated of snow, but then refrozen ...although that is a precise dagger to the heart of the collective voice on this forum, that's actually very good conditions on the fairways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That's funny! you know it's a butt banger winter when you get 12 different depictions, and 0 of them offer snow at 40 degrees N, on January 25th mind you! That's ...tough to do - I tell you what... though I've come long strides as an adult toward not allowing this stuff to affect me emotionally, I will say that from a purely cerebral perspective on the matter ... I've really worn out quite frankly and have grown tired of all this. At this point, I'm pretty much all set and wouldn't mind it if it just busted out an obnoxious early spring - hell, let's drive GW home with a +17F February - the kind that greens up lawns before March 1 that happens every 10,000 years or whatever insane unlikeliness it would be. I just don't care anymore. The jokes old. Not funny any longer. That sort of thing. It may not be very objective to say the following but you just don't get the "feeling" this time. The AO is now down to -2, and our temperatures are going the wrong way? The PNA is rising from -1 to +1SD between about 4 days ago and another 6 day from now, and it's as though we'd have to violate nuclear physics to get a cold coastal?? I flip the bird at them odds and walk away - I suggest you all do the same. Save your selves. The only up shot for me personally is that as a Disk Golfer, the ground being eradicated of snow, but then refrozen ...although that is a precise dagger to the heart of the collective voice on this forum, that's actually very good conditions on the fairways. Kevs prediction was right, meltdown #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That's funny! you know it's a butt banger winter when you get 12 different depictions, and 0 of them offer snow at 40 degrees N, on January 25th mind you! That's ...tough to do - I tell you what... though I've come long strides as an adult toward not allowing this stuff to affect me emotionally, I will say that from a purely cerebral perspective on the matter ... I've really worn out quite frankly and have grown tired of all this. At this point, I'm pretty much all set and wouldn't mind it if it just busted out an obnoxious early spring - hell, let's drive GW home with a +17F February - the kind that greens up lawns before March 1 that happens every 10,000 years or whatever insane unlikeliness it would be. I just don't care anymore. The jokes old. Not funny any longer. That sort of thing. It may not be very objective to say the following but you just don't get the "feeling" this time. The AO is now down to -2, and our temperatures are going the wrong way? The PNA is rising from -1 to +1SD between about 4 days ago and another 6 day from now, and it's as though we'd have to violate nuclear physics to get a cold coastal?? I flip the bird at them odds and walk away - I suggest you all do the same. Save your selves. The only up shot for me personally is that as a Disk Golfer, the ground being eradicated of snow, but then refrozen ...although that is a precise dagger to the heart of the collective voice on this forum, that's actually very good conditions on the fairways. Well said! I felt this way for a while now. Glad people ate hopping on board.. I don't even look at models anymore.. Its 1/24 and I'm actually hoping for snow pack to melt and I'm hoping that this next storm is rain. This winter has really lessened my interest not only in winter, but in weather as well. It was a godsend that the patriots are in the Superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 GFS trying to make things interesting for later Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The GFS has the southern energy that tries to come up the coast in advance of a digging trough over the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 It's interesting how even the NAM kind of looks like it has a two storm scenario as well...initial weak wave Thursday into Friday then something else potentially later Saturday...wonder if we will see the Ukie/Euro have something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro as of 00z grabbed that srn energy and dragged it ne for the Thursday night/Friday deal. Some of the GEFS members have this 12z GFS op scenario, so we'll see what guidance does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Let's go for a 1/25/00 type event. LOL The GFS has the southern energy that tries to come up the coast in advance of a digging trough over the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Kevs prediction was right, meltdown #1 Ha, funny ...but no. Not really. Pretty resolute in this at this point. After awhile, how long can one really care? For me ...enough is enough. The only way out of this seems to flip the season and start fresh next November. Who knows what Feb will bring but if it is worth to you, it's worth it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro as of 00z grabbed that srn energy and dragged it ne for the Thursday night/Friday deal. Some of the GEFS members have this 12z GFS op scenario, so we'll see what guidance miss-guidance does today. Scott - you had a small type-o in your post so I corrected it for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ha, funny ...but no. Not really. Pretty resolute in this at this point. After awhile, how long can one really care? For me ...enough is enough. The only way out of this seems to flip the season and start fresh next November. Who knows what Feb will bring but if it is worth to you, it's worth it - Dude it gon snow this weekend, it's worth it. Best week of winter ended yesterday, this weekend begins another good week. Stem winder inbound Feb 6/ 10 ish, you will back to writing essays that require two cups of coffee to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Dude it gon snow this weekend, it's worth it. Best week of winter ended yesterday, this weekend begins another good week. Stem winder inbound Feb 6/ 10 ish, you will back to writing essays that require two cups of coffee to read. Ha ha, I'm a two-cupper, am I ? well, if it is any consolation, the purpose of this thread was really to highlight the ~ Jan 28 through Feb 10 and the best signal so far for this winter, for generalized cool departures and storminess. That hasn't changed. There's a disconnect there/here for "me" personally.. If a big event took place - sure, hell yes. I am a Meteorologist that actually enjoys Meteorology. That will never change. I'm just not waiting one second for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Well if the GFS has the right idea (IF), then a +PNA ridge building and srn stream vortmax should always be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ha ha, I'm a two-cupper, am I ? well, if it is any consolation, the purpose of this thread was really to highlight the ~ Jan 28 through Feb 10 and the best signal so far for this winter, for generalized cool departures and storminess. That hasn't changed. There's a disconnect there/here for "me" personally.. If a big event took place - sure, hell yes. I am a Meteorologist that actually enjoys Meteorology. That will never change. I'm just not waiting one second for it. Reading back on Eastern on the Jan 05 event was a pleasure, as I was reading it I thought man if Tip was around he would have had an epic post. That storm if it had slowed for 6 more hours would had rivaled 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Reading back on Eastern on the Jan 05 event was a pleasure, as I was reading it I thought man if Tip was around he would have had an epic post. That storm if it had slowed for 6 more hours would had rivaled 78. What year was that again - ? Edit: wait ...That was Jan 5, 2005 I think you are referring. That was a huge mega event for the SE part of KTAN's region. Interestingly ... Acton, where I lived at the time (centrla Middlesex County) wound up in a gravity wave attributed depression/node, where the precip actually all but shut off entirely during the height of the event. The result was a banded rad for 4-6 hours. We get 2 or 3" in the beginning of the event, then it shut down while it cranked over S-SE zones big time, while a deformation band set up just NW over western MA -N ORH-S NH a I recall. That def. band than sank SE as the system started pulling out and we recuperated about 4-6" in 2 or 3 hours, bringing our totals to around 8 or 9" - respectable, but nothing like the 20+ over the S-E. That's the problem with that event for me, in that it didn't take on the truly pervasive appeal. It's what I call a top, tier 2 event. Feb, 5-7, 1978 is a top tier 1 event. April 1997, top tier 1. These are systems that had huge CCB, and that is really missing from storms of the last several years - we had CCB genesis all the time in the 1990's, but just a couple of them in the 2000. Will would be better at nailing down those numbers... Anyway, the point is, CCB don't band as much, because their really snow hoses pointed west where everyone gets tarred/feathered evenly. Then you get your odd-balls like Dec, 2005, which was really just a giant supercell thunderstorm with cold air engulfed LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 What year was that again - ? You lost me here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 What year was that again - ? Edit: wait ...That was Jan 5, 2005 I think you are referring. That was a huge mega event for the SE part of KTAN's region. Interestingly ... Acton, where I lived at the time (centrla Middlesex County) wound up in a gravity wave attributed depression/node, where the precip actually all but shut off entirely during the height of the event. The result was a banded rad for 4-6 hours. We get 2 or 3" in the beginning of the event, then it shut down while it cranked over S-SE zones big time, while a deformation band set up just NW over western MA -N ORH-S NH a I recall. That def. band than sank SE as the system started pulling out and we recuperated about 4-6" in 2 or 3 hours, bringing our totals to around 8 or 9" - respectable, but nothing like the 20+ over the S-E. That's the problem with that event for me, in that it didn't take on the truly pervasive appeal. It's what I call a top, tier 2 event. Feb, 5-7, 1978 is a top tier 1 event. April 1997, top tier 1. These are systems that had huge CCB, and that is really missing from storms of the last several years - we had CCB genesis all the time in the 1990's, but just a couple of them in the 2000. Will would be better at nailing down those numbers... Anyway, the point is, CCB don't band as much, because their really snow hoses pointed west where everyone gets tarred/feathered evenly. Then you get your odd-balls like Dec, 2005, which was really just a giant supercell thunderstorm with cold air engulfed LOL Do you only click on one thread in here? We highly suggest you read them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ah, it's becoming clear! There's no cold air anywhere: INCLUDING...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE... SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS 609 AM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH PASSES. PATCHY ICE FOG. HIGHS 35 TO 50 BELOW...COLDEST ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH PASSES WITH WIND CHILL TO 65 BELOW. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH PASSES. PATCHY ICE FOG. LOWS 40 TO 55 BELOW...COLDEST ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH PASSES WITH WIND CHILL TO 75 BELOW. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY ICE FOG. HIGHS AROUND 40 BELOW. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY ICE FOG. LOWS AROUND 45 BELOW. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY ICE FOG. HIGHS AROUND 40 BELOW. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40 BELOW. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 30 BELOW. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 35 BELOW. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 30 BELOW. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 35 BELOW. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 30 BELOW. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 35 BELOW. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 25 BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 EC ens really pumping the +PNA ridge in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 EC ens really pumping the +PNA ridge in the long range. Make it so, Number One. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 EC ens really pumping the +PNA ridge in the long range. How are 2 things? NAO, Canadian cold. Tyia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 How are 2 things? NAO, Canadian cold. Tyia. Cold isn't very good though later in the run it really starts coming down Hudson Bay and eastward. NAO is not great but not terrible...has some ridging poking in from the east in Greenland, but no big Davis straight block or anything...the PV gets forced into SE Canada by the end of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Cold isn't very good though later in the run it really starts coming down Hudson Bay and eastward. NAO is not great but not terrible...has some ridging poking in from the east in Greenland, but no big Davis straight block or anything...the PV gets forced into SE Canada by the end of the ensembles. Not bad moving into the heart of February weenie season it seems. Thanks Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Seems like we'll have about a 7-10 day window for snow events in Feb and then it's over until net year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Seems like we'll have about a 7-10 day window for snow events in Feb and then it's over until net year :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Well at least all models have that PNA ridge. How long it stays...who knows, but nice to see. Not sure that it looks like a prolonged feature, but we'll take it, if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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