Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I lifted the following from that other thread: There is growing signal for higher impact ...larger winter storm type threats from roughly the 28th through the 8th or 10th of February. I'm liking that time frame because of how teleconnectors are aligning: The antecedent AO spends 7 days negative, effectively continuing to load cold into the middle latitudes (despite any local time scale anomalies interrupting, such as our Lake cutter on Monday); the NAO slips negative by next weekend; the PNA has risen from -1SD to +1.5. Those all together could be like the Rook, Queen, and the Bishop threatening Checkmate here. However, a defense against that could be the MJO; it has rather unexpectedly emerged from incoherence right smack in the middle of the "end winter" phase - not sure what it is about the Pacific tropical oceanic/atmospheric coupled system ... but it obsessively hates Phase 7, 8 and 1. At least excuse imaginable all year, the wave just can't wait to get back to Phase 4/5 Prozac. It does this though year to year. Some years the wave strength is biased over the western Pacific region, other years it's not. Now is one of those winters where it's not. And ... joking aside, it probably does have something to do with how the layout of the sea-surface temperature distribution between the Indian Ocean the SE of Japan is interacting with the seasonal gradient - gradient drives everything, moisture and temperature. Without gradient in those, there is no need to restore balance; no restoration of forces = nothing happens. Anyway, the interface between the tropical/convective environment ...where it kisses the westerlies and discretely how, is critical in determining the layout of R-waves downwind off tropical forcing. So it is what it is and we just have to deal with the fact that the MJO is perhaps physically incapable of maturing a wave strength on the left hand side of the old trusty Wheeler D - for the time being. Thankfully for the snow and cold geese, the correlation of any given MJO wave is not 1::1. The former indexes could trump and signal a favorable result in that regard, and damp out the MJO if they happen to be in deconstructive wave interference. My own personal belief - to re-iterate - is that the MJO's influence on the pattern needs an assist. If these other middle latitude teleconnectors "support" then a given synoptic pattern/evolution will "seem" to be more highly correlated/caused/connect ..etc, to a given MJO; when the middle latitude teleconnectors don't support, the MJO science seems like a big huge waste of time. I've never tried to study that assertion directly my self, so taken with the grain of salt - or is it "assautl"? ...Excluding any possibility that I just inadvertently insulted someone ... I am less nervy about a Phase 5 MJO emerging for the time being, until the result of any -AO/-NAO/+PNA tandem teleconnector spread is fully registered. We touched on this earlier in that other thread too, in how a savior to winter's hope might have to come from the N. We have had 4 snow and or mixy type events regional to SNE over the last 9 days ... albeit pieces of schit as they were. I still think, though, that our being collectively spoiled ingrates aside, much of the colder like profile overall since Jan 10 or so is likely connected to that 3-5 day -EPO pulse that took place near the beginning of that time span - perhaps that shows what this winter could be like if these other statistical packages really do a more meaningful switch from their persistently wrong signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Euros had something in that time frame for a couple of days. Today's 12z has a nice storm on 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Right - Euro continues with the NJ Model solution... Any time you have a northern stream impulse/clipper type open wave with potent embedded vort max running off the upper MA Coast, you can have a quick detonation ...rapid deepening solution, as we see below centered 12z this next Friday. What is interesting with this overall appeal is the lack of western N/A ridge response after the northern stream impulse comes east of the MV longitudes. If that were greater, the impulse in question would "dig" more near 100W, and that would then open the door to plausible phasing with the southern stream antecedent system trundling around TX. Believe it or not ... that possibility is yet on the table, though perhaps lower in probability as it were. The key is the correct handling of the Pacific relay into N/A over the next week. That said, the next impulse after the 132 system coming into/through the Pac NW...that could also avail should ridging be better. As we get to those late middle range periods, the PNA will have recovered overall some +1SD and still rising, so we could/should be leery of the these ridge amplitudes at those time ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Right - Euro continues with the NJ Model solution... Any time you have a northern stream impulse/clipper type open wave with potent embedded vort max running off the upper MA Coast, you can have a quick detonation ...rapid deepening solution, as we see below centered 12z this next Friday. What is interesting with this overall appeal is the lack of western N/A ridge response after the northern stream impulse comes east of the MV longitudes. If that were greater, the impulse in question would "dig" more near 100W, and that would then open the door to plausible phasing with the southern stream antecedent system trundling around TX. Believe it or not ... that possibility is yet on the table, though perhaps lower in probability as it were. The key is the correct handling of the Pacific relay into N/A over the next week. That said, the next impulse after the 132 system coming into/through the Pac NW...that could also avail should ridging be better. As we get to those late middle range periods, the PNA will have recovered overall some +1SD and still rising, so we could/should be leery of the these ridge amplitudes at those time ranges. Holy Fook.... What a nice Euro Run right there. That first storm really bombs out! Now this is the s*it I'm talking about tip! Screw these 3-6 inchers. I want a 12-24" bomb. That second wave looks good ATTM now too around hour 180. Could be a very fun week next week (as long as patriots win) Tip, How do teleconnectors look for that first miller B event? ------------------------------------ --> Bostonseminole Tip's my favorite met on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Tip and SnowNH, match made in heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 BOX offer a teeny bit of hope wrt Sunday night/Monday BUT QUESTION WHETHER THE MDL 2M TEMPS CAPTURE THE EXPECTED SFC SNOW PACK. ITS PSBL THAT ALTHO SFC TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FRZG THAT THE SFC WARM FRNT REMAINS STUCK ALONG THE S COAST AGAINST A DEEPER AND COLDER AIRMASS OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS PROMOTING A CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTED HIGH PRES. Snowpack ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm locking in the EURO for the 27th-28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'll gladly take where the euro is right now. There's probably room for a bit more amplification but nothing drastic with the additional shortwave trough a bit downstream of this one...at least with how it is modeled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Holy Fook.... What a nice Euro Run right there. That first storm really bombs out! Now this is the s*it I'm talking about tip! Screw these 3-6 inchers. I want a 12-24" bomb. That second wave looks good ATTM now too around hour 180. Could be a very fun week next week (as long as patriots win) Tip, How do teleconnectors look for that first miller B event? ------------------------------------ --> Bostonseminole Tip's my favorite met on earth. I wouldn't get carried away; I'm too much of an azzhole for that lol. Seriously, don't just see the positive in that. Here is my "general" forecast for that period of time: Thursday, sunny and seasonably cold, high 30-35. Thursday night, clear early, increasing clouds with a chance of snow late. Low around 20, then steady. Friday, chance of snow, or snow/rain mix E and SE. High around 36 coast, 30 inland. Something like that... There's no 12-24" bomb in that time frame the way thing set at this point in time. Also, I don't see any Miller B - not sure where you are seeing that. A Miller B is a "transfer" - although that's technically a dumb word for it because nothing is actually transfered - of cyclogenesis to the coast. What really is happening is that the low level cyclone center encounters both the App. cordillera and heavier viscous CAD air mass tucked into the Coastal Plain - those two don't want to turn. Ha ha. Too dense... especially mountains - they definitely don't like to turn. But, the mid and upper level dynamics keep moving and effectively abandon the lower level "primary" low; the dynamics encounter the thermal interface/baroclinicity/instability between the west Atlantic and said CAD, and new "seondary" low forms. That whole process doesn't require "transfering" anything. Anyway, in some exotic quasi sense you could say that a clipper Miller B's *as verb*, but it doesn't really. But not in the classical sense of what a Miller B is overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 A Miller B is simply definied as a secondary low taking over a primary low from the lakes/OH Valley...there's several diffferent flavors of them that can meet that definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 BOX offer a teeny bit of hope wrt Sunday night/Monday BUT QUESTION WHETHER THE MDL 2M TEMPS CAPTURE THE EXPECTED SFC SNOW PACK. ITS PSBL THAT ALTHO SFC TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FRZG THAT THE SFC WARM FRNT REMAINS STUCK ALONG THE S COAST AGAINST A DEEPER AND COLDER AIRMASS OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS PROMOTING A CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTED HIGH PRES. Snowpack ftw? I agree with their sentiment wholeheartedly fwiw - I noticed that the NAM's last several cycles clearly indicate a sfc pressure pattern where there is trough curvature subtended seaward S of LI - that's the warm boundary NOT getting into SNE proper. It's been there in the runs for a while. While we all hate the NAM for its' various idiosyncratic bs with handling systems, it would probably take a finer meshed model just the same to resolve this kind of question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'll gladly take where the euro is right now. There's probably room for a bit more amplification but nothing drastic with the additional shortwave trough a bit downstream of this one...at least with how it is modeled now. Agreed - and It's definitely something worth keeping an eye on from where I'm sitting. Too re-iterate, with the PNA showing a robust 10 day rise through the period, there is a bit of a wild card there with that handling of western N/A geopotential medium. Ever 1% greater amplitude, feeds back into a deeper eastern U.S. solution...etc...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 A Miller B is simply definied as a secondary low taking over a primary low from the lakes/OH Valley...there's several diffferent flavors of them that can meet that definition. Tru dhat - I was just trying to offer a bit more elaborate description of the mechanics there. Still, I don't really see a clipper as being qualified, because many times, clippers are all mid-level dynamics and with only weak and sometimes no apparent surface closed circulation when using the standard 4mb differential - just a package of instability and snow or rain zipping through. But sometimes these hit a better baroclinic environment along the Del M or Jersey shores and boom! You're right that the basic definition is 2ndary activity, but with the former description, "2ndary" doesn't seem to apply too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'll be interested in the Euor ensemble mean... The D8-10 freebies at PSU hinting at a whole scale change that is consistent with the -AO/-NAO/+PNA. February ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I agree with their sentiment wholeheartedly fwiw - I noticed that the NAM's last several cycles clearly indicate a sfc pressure pattern where there is trough curvature subtended seaward S of LI - that's the warm boundary NOT getting into SNE proper. It's been there in the runs for a while. While we all hate the NAM for its' various idiosyncratic bs with handling systems, it would probably take a finer meshed model just the same to resolve this kind of question. If we can save this snowpack on Monday/Monday nigt..I will gladly buy all your beers at the next gtg.. Hold me to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 All I can say is, wow, at to the 12z Euro today. Too bad it's out in model fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Euro ensembles are still shallower with the development of the low...it kind of develops over our head rather than much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Euro ensembles are still shallower with the development of the low...it kind of develops over our head rather than much further south. Yeah it's probably too soon to start the clanging but stuff is breaking colder these days so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Euro ensembles are still shallower with the development of the low...it kind of develops over our head rather than much further south. What would that loOk like? Would that be a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 What would that loOk like? Would that be a mix? It looks like it could be a mix to cold rain or something like that. Still pretty worthy of keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It looks like models try to pump up a +PNA as the AK low retros just enough to force height rises. As long as the low retros, we should be ok. If it doesn't then it could get more dicey again, but not bad looking. Certainly would have chances IF it did happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Cool new feature on Allan's model page http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ensemblecomparison.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 00z GFS about to go nuclear for the late week/next weekend potential storm. Miller A off the NC coast at 162. CAD present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 BOOM! SNE MECS on 00z GFS. (Also CNE and NNE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 MECS. at 171 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 BOOM! SNE MECS on 00z GFS. (Also CNE and NNE) if only today was thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 if only today was thursday.. How'd you fare today? About 3.2" here. More in the Wakefield, Peabody/Route 1 area by a fair amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro not good at all, hopefully a spurious run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next week's storm looks liek rain, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Kind of meh looking in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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