Feb Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm surprised nobody mentioned the GFS popping a 1050-1060 HP smack over the middle of greenland and parks it there for days. Fantasy range of course but man, popping a -nao/+pna combo would be weenie utopia. DT has. He issued an *aleet* about the 12z GFS. He said don't believe it. It's full of crap. Of course this is the same DT who had to change his pants two weeks ago when issued another *aleet* about the 12z GFS and how it showed cold and snow for the east, and how he believed it. He most be off his meds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 DT has. He issued an *aleet* about the 12z GFS. He said don't believe it. It's full of crap. Of course this is the same DT who had to change his pants two weeks ago when issued another *aleet* about the 12z GFS and how it showed cold and snow for the east, and how he believed it. He most be off his meds. LOL, good one, Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 A bit of wishcasting here but even so, it does make sense that we could potentially have a -nao/+pna combo. I looked at probably too many #'s this year but almost all anomalous +ao/nao winters have nice windows of opportunity. Especially in the month of February. I don't have the graphs at work but there are plenty of Nina's and similar teleconnection winters where we basically suck wind in Dec/Jan but end up getting a 10+/- day "real" winter period in Feb. I'm going to probably hang myself for saying this but I'm unusually confident that we are about to have a real winter period in the near future and it's not going to be a couple of hit and run events with rain in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 A bit of wishcasting here but even so, it does make sense that we could potentially have a -nao/+pna combo. I looked at probably too many #'s this year but almost all anomalous +ao/nao winters have nice windows of opportunity. Especially in the month of February. I don't have the graphs at work but there are plenty of Nina's and similar teleconnection winters where we basically suck wind in Dec/Jan but end up getting a 10+/- day "real" winter period in Feb. I'm going to probably hang myself for saying this but I'm unusually confident that we are about to have a real winter period in the near future and it's not going to be a couple of hit and run events with rain in between. I have some extra rope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm surprised nobody mentioned the GFS popping a 1050-1060 HP smack over the middle of greenland and parks it there for days. Fantasy range of course but man, popping a -nao/+pna combo would be weenie utopia. i saw but it's hard to take seriously even with all the other signs showing a better pattern possibly coming. Trying to be both optimistic/pessimistic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I have some extra rope. A true friend indeed. lol This is probably the first time that I have posted something about being confident about a winter pattern 10+ days in the future. We'll see I guess. It can end one of two ways and even the with a worst case scenario, I can't be held accountable because I'm just a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The MJO progression beyond phase 7 is becoming more and more a possibility which means the PNA ridge will be a contender through at least the phase 3-4 transition. This time of year, phase 3 isn't as warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 In case people would like to see almost all of the models (and mean) on one page: http://www.daculawea...se_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Great page dacula! Love the verification page! N c e p has on their page they are working on one....but that has been on there for years. Lol. Awesome you have it. Having said that and seeing the Canadian being the best right now and looking at the Canadian bums me...compared to the dreamlike euroS and g e f s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 In case people would like to see almost all of the models (and mean) on one page: http://www.daculawea...se_forecast.php You need to use some media queries or agent detection in JavaScript. Your floating menu makes the site almost unusable on a mobile device. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Great page dacula! Love the verification page! N c e p has on their page they are working on one....but that has been on there for years. Lol. Awesome you have it. Having said that and seeing the Canadian being the best right now and looking at the Canadian bums me...compared to the dreamlike euroS and g e f s What NCEP page are you referring to (and "lol"ing at)? All of his verification graphics are directly from CPC or EMC (NCEP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 it's on the m j o page just below the temperature composition section. I will find it later tonight I'm not by a computer. but it says something along the lines ...this page is currently being developed for future use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml at the bottom where it says verification right above the graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml at the bottom where it says verification right above the graphic Ok thanks (it's just a web issue and I'll see if I can alert someone about it, CPC and EMC are the ones generating a lot of the model verification stuff). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 You need to use some media queries or agent detection in JavaScript. Your floating menu makes the site almost unusable on a mobile device. I'll fix it. Actually I do check if you go to the main page, and you'll get redirected to a "small" phone page. But none of the other stuff is formatted for phones. My 900px width is already too small to display many "full sized" weather images you might find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The euro ensembles pretty much continued the theme from yesterday, fwiw. Still no real -NAO, but continued the theme of a big ridge out west. I think the one thing to keep an eye on, is making sure the pesky low doesn't try to linger near AK and cut down the ridge amplitude. Models are bullish with the ridge, but something to watch going forward as we have lots of time still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The euro ensembles pretty much continued the theme from yesterday, fwiw. Still no real -NAO, but continued the theme of a big ridge out west. I think the one thing to keep an eye on, is making sure the pesky low doesn't try to linger near AK and cut down the ridge amplitude. Models are bullish with the ridge, but something to watch going forward as we have lots of time still. Seems that the trough axis shifted a good bit west on the 0z ens. I'd think that would be good for everyone up and down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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