usedtobe Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro agrees with the general ideal of zonal flow/pac air. More amplified than the gfs but nothing interesting, cold, or wintery in these parts once we roll into Feb. I know this type of fast flow pattern is tough as heck to get a handle on past day 4 or so but the 12z runs aren't showing alot of promise. They sure aren't but there is always the next run and then the one after that one and even though the weekend threat is an uphill battle, there is enough uncertaintly to not completely dismiss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wes, that's from the older ensemble (ICs from late December). Here is the updated map from the ICs within the past 10 days (still warm). Are you (or anyone else here) going to JOSS' CFSv2 eval workshop on 30 April? I am thinking of sending someone and might like to hook them up with a friendly face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 They sure aren't but there is always the next run and then the one after that one and even though the weekend threat is an uphill battle, there is enough uncertaintly to not completely dismiss it. Yea, just a bit frustrating but it is what it is. I've been hoping (weenie hope) that the major teleconnections would show some promise on the models going into early Feb. I'm not even looking at the back yard part of the runs in the later periods. In particular, I've been trying to will the nao into a more favorable state. I've spent more time staring at greenland this year than a musk ox but it hasn't done much good. The irony for me is that I spent alot of time researching the AO this year because of such an anomalous start to the season and now we have it sitting around -2 but we have highs in the mid 50's. It just shows me how important teleconnections working in tandem are. However, if we could have just one cooperate I would much prefer it to be the nao but man, it's just not our friend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Bob Chill, Well spoken and a double "AMEN" to that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Are you (or anyone else here) going to JOSS' CFSv2 eval workshop on 30 April? I am thinking of sending someone and might like to hook them up with a friendly face. I'm not sure. The problem is that I'm currently scheduled to defend my thesis on 02 May, and I'm trying as hard as possible to keep my schedule clear around that time. Despite that, I'm guessing that I'll be asked to make an appearance on behalf of the EMC DA team (given that other folks are already committed to participating in the WCRP Reanalysis workshop shortly thereafter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Yea, just a bit frustrating but it is what it is. I've been hoping (weenie hope) that the major teleconnections would show some promise on the models going into early Feb. I'm not even looking at the back yard part of the runs in the later periods. In particular, I've been trying to will the nao into a more favorable state. I've spent more time staring at greenland this year than a musk ox but it hasn't done much good. The irony for me is that I spent alot of time researching the AO this year because of such an anomalous start to the season and now we have it sitting around -2 but we have highs in the mid 50's. It just shows me how important teleconnections working in tandem are. However, if we could have just one cooperate I would much prefer it to be the nao but man, it's just not our friend this winter. For snow the AO is more important than the nao by a small but most of the high latitude positive anomalies are not in place with corresponding negatives. For example, we like below normal heights near 50 50 along with higher heights across Greenland into Baffin bay/island area and we haven't had that. A strong well placed pna pattern can give us cold and snow if the timing of shortwaves coming over the ridge is right. The good news is the models have shown little consistency so its alwasy possible for them to flip back to a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wes, I sure do hope so. The clocking will start ticking in one more week or so. Thanks for the post. I learn lots from you. The AO is a major factor in sustaining cold in our area. NAO puts the dip in the jet stream allowing coastal storm to develop. When they are both (-negative) then we can play ball. We can still get minor events with the -AO/+NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wes, I sure do hope so. The clocking will start ticking in one more week or so. Thanks for the post. I learn lots from you. The AO is a major factor in sustaining cold in our area. NAO puts the dip in the jet stream allowing coastal storm to develop. When they are both (-negative) then we can play ball. We can still get minor events with the -AO/+NAO We can still get minor events no matter what the combo is. The negative ao usually also has a negative NAO associated with it as they both are indicators of high latitude blocking. The NAO measures the difference in heights or pressures between ICeland and the Azores. The AO deals with a larger area and included more measurements so it deals with a larger scale. If the negative NOA is due to high heights over iceland and low heights over the azores or Spain that isn't always good for us getting now. We want our high heights farther west. Don't discount the PNA ridge position as it is also a big player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Could be another mid week warm up next week, and then perhaps big +PNA FTW afterwards if ensembles are right. AK low retrogrades really pumping up heights. I took this from the NE forum Wes. This is from todays 12z Euro Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I took this from the NE forum Wes. This is from todays 12z Euro Ensembles. That is one thing that has been non-Nina-ish this winter and that has been the PNA which until recently was neutral/positive most of the winter...didn't help us, but at least the tendency has been there....forecasts have it going positive again....so hopefully at some point it will help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 That is one thing that has been non-Nina-ish this winter and that has been the PNA which until recently was neutral/positive most of the winter...didn't help us, but at least the tendency has been there....forecasts have it going positive again....so hopefully at some point it will help us That is the one good sign if we can get some amplitude somewhere down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That is one thing that has been non-Nina-ish this winter and that has been the PNA which until recently was neutral/positive most of the winter...didn't help us, but at least the tendency has been there....forecasts have it going positive again....so hopefully at some point it will help us The PAC side on the Euro ensembles actually looks like one of those favorable El Nino pacific patterns...the AK low retrogrades WSW to a position well into the Aleutions and even SW of there pumping up the heights over AK and creating a -EPO/+PNA pattern...the temps are finalyl responding to this a bit more as the cold gets dumped into the eastern half of Canada...not western Canada like we had with the -EPO/-PNA pattern. NAO is kind of meh, but not a raging positive...it has some higher heights trying to build into Greenland from the east...but they never really form into a big block...but that is certainly better than having a monster vortex there. The NAO is usually the hardest thing on the models...the west based block it was trying to show for the end of this month earlier never really formed...more of a weak high anomaly near Baffin Island...which is better than nothing, but an actual block would have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The PAC side on the Euro ensembles actually looks like one of those favorable El Nino pacific patterns...the AK low retrogrades WSW to a position well into the Aleutions and even SW of there pumping up the heights over AK and creating a -EPO/+PNA pattern...the temps are finalyl responding to this a bit more as the cold gets dumped into the eastern half of Canada...not western Canada like we had with the -EPO/-PNA pattern. NAO is kind of meh, but not a raging positive...it has some higher heights trying to build into Greenland from the east...but they never really form into a big block...but that is certainly better than having a monster vortex there. The NAO is usually the hardest thing on the models...the west based block it was trying to show for the end of this month earlier never really formed...more of a weak high anomaly near Baffin Island...which is better than nothing, but an actual block would have been nice. I just looked at the 12z ensembles...I had been looking at 0Z and there is a bit of change to be sure between them...even by day 10....I dont really have much confidence in the models or ensembles, but a +PNA at least doesn't seem an unlikely solution this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 That is one thing that has been non-Nina-ish this winter and that has been the PNA which until recently was neutral/positive most of the winter...didn't help us, but at least the tendency has been there....forecasts have it going positive again....so hopefully at some point it will help us Hopefully it will help us this time. I have a good feeling about February. I have felt for a long time that it would be the best month of the winter. I'm not sure we get a "biggie" but i think we get some chances at some snow. I'm in your camp. I don't need a KU storm ( but would gladly take one!), just give me some moderate to low end events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Hopefully it will help us this time. I have a good feeling about February. I have felt for a long time that it would be the best month of the winter. I'm not sure we get a "biggie" but i think we get some chances at some snow. I'm in your camp. I don't need a KU storm ( but would gladly take one!), just give me some moderate to low end events. Bob, I agree. February offers a window of hope. That's all we need. We all know how bad 2005-2006 was until February KU event, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Feb & Chris, Hey you guys, I caught crap on a feeling 2 months ago on a crappy winter till the end of it. Without my 100% breakdown why I was looked at as crap. I know a lot about the weather and I am college MET student. I still have along ways to go and people like Wes fill my brain with knowledge and could never thank that man enough. I have been saying it a couple times since, but I believe February we will get our 1 dump stop snowstorm. Not just believe it, I feel it hardcore. 1"in total for my area so far and we have a 6-8 weeks left of primetime to make our annual average. I said it awhile back, it's patience this year & it will come. Look on the bright side on some models like the lonely 00Z run in my book are showing good things and some are great. 288hr out and you will see. Hopefully soon are shovels will be needed and we will all be thanking god for the beautiful snowstorm. "GOOD THINGS COME TO THE ONES WHO WAIT IN PATIENCE" our feb will have some good things popping up. Keep the finger crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Ps, I am the baby of 5 brothers and 5 sisters. You develop a wonderful ESP from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Bob, I agree. February offers a window of hope. That's all we need. We all know how bad 2005-2006 was until February KU event, but we shall see. Other than the 5 accumulating snow events i had already received by 12/15 including one with thunder, I agree strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The irony for me is that I spent alot of time researching the AO this year because of such an anomalous start to the season and now we have it sitting around -2 but we have highs in the mid 50's. It just shows me how important teleconnections working in tandem are. Sometimes one gets results that are atyptical. For example, on January 8, 1998, the temperature soared to 69° in Washington, DC. The AO was -3.007. The current EPO+/PNA- has helped produce the mild outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Sometimes one gets results that are atyptical. For example, on January 8, 1998, the temperature soared to 69° in Washington, DC. The AO was -3.007. The current EPO+/PNA- has helped produce the mild outcome. This winter has been an excellent learning experience for me and I always enjoy reading your posts on the main forum. Even though it hasn't been cooperative, it has really helped me better understand how the teleconnections affect each other. Especially the epo and pdo. I've gleaned a much better understanding of the mechanics in the pac and how that effects us downstream. The atlantic is much easier to understand imo and I have keyed mostly on that and just the pna in the pac the last 3 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 If this forecast is actually accurate AND we cruise through 7-8-1 then maybe we do put together a winter pattern that lasts more than 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 18Z GFS maay be coming around to a change around Feb 8. Still along way to go for that though. But I can't remember when any model this year showed two possible snow events with a few days of each other, even if it is two weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If this forecast is actually accurate AND we cruise through 7-8-1 then maybe we do put together a winter pattern that lasts more than 3 days. It's possible and at least some of the other guidance at has things going in a similar direction (though lower amplitude). Recent GEFS forecasts for the MJO have been atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 One thing to watch is how amplified the ridge gets...the Euro ensembles are more amplified than the GEFS...they go much further north well into AK and even a bit north...while the GEFS are a bit more tame. Also the Euro ridge axis is slightly further west than the GEFS. This makes the Euro ensembles a bit more favorable for cold departures...also probably better for snow with a bit more meridional flow. The Euro ensembles also have more ridging poking into Greenland from the E and SE...while not a classic NAO block, it helps push the heights lower into SE Canada. I have very little confidence on the models' ability to predict the Atlantic side, but these are just some differences I thought I would point out in the ensemble guidance heading past Feb 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It's possible and at least some of the other guidance at has things going in a similar direction (though lower amplitude). Recent GEFS forecasts for the MJO have been atrocious. As of recent, the CAN has been the best, in some cases by far. 30 day, 90, 180 and 365 anomalies on one page here, I had to put them on one page on I could find them! http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase_forecast_anomaly.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 One thing to watch is how amplified the ridge gets...the Euro ensembles are more amplified than the GEFS...they go much further north well into AK and even a bit north...while the GEFS are a bit more tame. Also the Euro ridge axis is slightly further west than the GEFS. This makes the Euro ensembles a bit more favorable for cold departures...also probably better for snow with a bit more meridional flow. The Euro ensembles also have more ridging poking into Greenland from the E and SE...while not a classic NAO block, it helps push the heights lower into SE Canada. I have very little confidence on the models' ability to predict the Atlantic side, but these are just some differences I thought I would point out in the ensemble guidance heading past Feb 5th. The euro ens and euro from last night continue to look interesting for the feb 5-11 period. I think the poking up of the ridge so far north may also have implications going forward as usually when the anomaly gets that far north flow eventually undercuts it and the positive anomaly retrogrades which might lead us into another negative PNA period down the road but first we may have a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I sure hope the Euro can back up the GFS. It looks pretty good after about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I sure hope the Euro can back up the GFS. It looks pretty good after about a week. The gfs took a big jump towards last night's euro and euro ens mean. Like you I'm hoping we hold onto the euro look this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm surprised nobody mentioned the GFS popping a 1050-1060 HP smack over the middle of greenland and parks it there for days. Fantasy range of course but man, popping a -nao/+pna combo would be weenie utopia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm surprised nobody mentioned the GFS popping a 1050-1060 HP smack over the middle of greenland and parks it there for days. Fantasy range of course but man, popping a -nao/+pna combo would be weenie utopia. I just mentioned in another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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