Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 All: Please forgive my idiot self for starting a topic with the WRONG years for winter comparison. The actual information that bears resemblance to the 2012 winter is the winter of 1960. Here is the reasoning and supporting link. Remember...there will NOT perfect matches in overall pattern. But the link shows how the infamous AK vortex was displaced west and it opened up the door for record snow/cold for Mid Feb to March. Here is what I found: Ok peeps....I FINALLY found what I was looking for in terms of a "winter reversal". The year was 1960, NOT 1958! The winter of 1960 started out like This winter (2012). The temps then were slightly to well above normal from Dec 1959 to around MID FEBRUARY of 1960. After mid Feb, it was GAME on! If you read the link I have provided, you will see that the blocking in AK was the culprit to begin with and then when the AK blocking broke down and pushed westward, then the winter weather and cold temps started in earnest. Here is the link: http://www.erh.noaa....eb-Mar_1960.pdf I am not saying this will happen by any stretch, but this drives home the point that we still have TIME and things can change on a DIME! ~ This was an AMAZING time for the Southeast that started out CRAPPY, in terms of cold/<wintry weather. Hope is not lost yet! FOR YOU PROS...how does this match in terms of analog years? << Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 That winter had a neutral negative Enso (-.30) vs. the current weak Nina (-.90 but probably going toward neutral neg. by spring). So, although not a perfect match, it isn't too much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 That winter had a neutral negative Enso (-.30) vs. the current weak Nina (-.90 but probably going toward neutral neg. by spring). So, although not a perfect match, it isn't too much different. Thanks Larry! I thiink a lot of peeps MAY be surprised when all is said and done. The only chess piece I am worried about IF the dynamics change and we gain the flow we need is WILL we be able to garner COLD ENOUGH air? Take care! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Your link is not working. I don't think there is a really good analog year to use this season, nothing seems to match up very well but I have heard some analogs from the 50's just not this particular one yet.. That said I'm not a fan of analogs from extreme years, but I can't knock this one because I don't know much about it. I did see that the AO and NAO is quite a bit different from this season but I guess all we can do is see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Sorry about the link not working. Try this: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 That was a pretty good read, I'll take a repeat but adjust it SW about 200 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 That was a pretty good read, I'll take a repeat but adjust it SW about 200 miles or so. I hear you, but I would still have been more than content with how KATL did: a major power outage causing ZR storm with some IP on 3/2, a major snow on 3/11 (4" airport to ~6-8" northern burbs), a sig. several inch snow for the northern burbs on 3/9, and snow falling on eight different days 3/2-15 along with freezes on all days 3/1-14, two days with highs below 32, seven days with highs below 40, and the all time March coldest low on record of 10 on 3/5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I hear you, but I would still have been more than content with how KATL did: a major power outage causing ZR storm with some IP on 3/2, a major snow on 3/11 (4" airport to ~6-8" northern burbs), a sig. several inch snow for the northern burbs on 3/9, and snow falling on eight different days 3/2-15 along with freezes on all days 3/1-14, two days with highs below 32, seven days with highs below 40, and the all time March coldest low on record of 10 on 3/5! sign me up! I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I did a study on this at easternuswx. back in 2008. http://www.easternus...__fromsearch__1 That was a period of historic double blocking, located in just the right spot for the South and the Appalachians, with several Gulf storms and low latitude systems , each had access to plenty of cold air. In fact, winter was a no-show that year until middle February, with record highs in January and tornadoes and thunderstorms very common in Dec. and January from the southern plains to the Southeast...then in mid Feb. things changed abruptly. Also, January featured a block north of Alaska, just like this years. (not saying we'll repeat history). It snowed every other day for four weeks in the mountains of Tn and NC. Shelby had around 30" total (some NCDC maps have 35" ) Futher south had much more sleet so it depends on where you were. Boone had to have the National Guard airlift supplies and trucks couldn't travel anywhere in western VA or western NC for nearly a month. Shelby Star headline: A friend from Seneca, SC sent me a pic from this time period. The PNA went negative (surprise) in March, but the blocking was so strong and strategically placed so that the Southeast got pounded with a supressed flow and we had enough cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Wow Robert!! AWESOME INFO!!!! I do remember your case study now. The prob I had was finding it! Someone (Mods) needs to archive your study for all to reference. That winter of 60 was a winter lovers DREAM!!! I hope everyone understands (and I hope that I stated clearly) that I am in no way comparing this winter with the Winter of 60 or saying this will happen I am only wanting three things out of this: 1. A Pro (such as yourself) to provide the differences between 2011 and 1960. 2. Use this as an example (albeit extreme) that winter can suck for an extended period (ala winter 2011) and change in the blink of an eye to another EXTREME (cold and frozen for the weenies like me that want it) like 1960. 3. I hope this will let the cliff diving weenies sto, take a breath and think about it. .. Winter is NOT over yet...it is late for arrival, like my wife is late for EVERYTHING. I just learn to come to grips with it!!! HAHAHAHA Oh and the WEENIE in me is SCREAMING....PLEASE 1960, LET'S HAVE ANREDUX!!! :)thanks so much for the supporting comments Robert!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I did a study on this at easternuswx. back in 2008. http://www.easternus...__fromsearch__1 That was a period of historic double blocking, located in just the right spot for the South and the Appalachians, with several Gulf storms and low latitude systems , each had access to plenty of cold air. In fact, winter was a no-show that year until middle February, with record highs in January and tornadoes and thunderstorms very common in Dec. and January from the southern plains to the Southeast...then in mid Feb. things changed abruptly. Also, January featured a block north of Alaska, just like this years. (not saying we'll repeat history). It snowed every other day for four weeks in the mountains of Tn and NC. Shelby had around 30" total (some NCDC maps have 35" ) Futher south had much more sleet so it depends on where you were. Boone had to have the National Guard airlift supplies and trucks couldn't travel anywhere in western VA or western NC for nearly a month. Shelby Star headline: A friend from Seneca, SC sent me a pic from this time period. The PNA went negative (surprise) in March, but the blocking was so strong and strategically placed so that the Southeast got pounded with a supressed flow and we had enough cold air to work with. Good stuff Robert! Although it is rare, this goes to show a -pna is not ALWAYS warm in the SE. There are other example's (1979 stands out) that I'm sure can be dug up. Sure, the liklihood of these severe outcomes is very low but, not impossible as some have basically said in so many words. March '60 would have been something to have witnessed! Nearly 3 feet on the level here for quite an extended period. Considering how extraordinay March'60 was , I seriously doubt we'll ever see that in our lifetime but, a watered down version is more possible, something akin to Feb. '79. although, odds are against that too. BUT, there is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Good stuff Robert! Although it is rare, this goes to show a -pna is not ALWAYS warm in the SE. There are other example's (1979 stands out) that I'm sure can be dug up. Sure, the liklihood of these severe outcomes is very low but, not impossible as some have basically said in so many words. March '60 would have been something to have witnessed! Nearly 3 feet on the level here for quite an extended period. Considering how extraordinay March'60 was , I seriously doubt we'll ever see that in our lifetime but, a watered down version is more possible, something akin to Feb. '79. although, odds are against that too. BUT, there is a chance yeah Jason and Lee that was the king of snow patterns for us. Who knows when it will happen again. I know history doesn't repeat itself exactly but we can come close. Just look at 1996, when much of the Midatlantic down to the srn. Apps thought that pattern could never be touched, then came Dec 2009, with major 2 foot amounts came from a single storm in northern Va and Md to NJ, and folks thought that would be a very long time before it could happen again..then 2 months later it happened again with 2 more feet in roughly the same areas. Just goes to show you that a pattern can repeat. It's all about getting the upper pattern to align in just the right way. So far, I'm not seeing it yet on the models. I'd be looking for a strong storm to cutoff over Maine or eastern Canada, with a block to its north, and a supressed /active flow in the deep south. So far the GFS has had hints of that a few days ago but its too far out to trust. Truth is, you probably can't see those kind of patterns coming until its pretty close at hand. I don't recall anyone doing well with the 1996 Winter, the historic 2009-10 winter in the MidAtlantic, or last years for the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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