Srain Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 241828Z - 242030Z RAPID WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 65-70 F DEWPOINTS ACROSS DEEP S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST...RESULTING IN MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG DESPITE LIMITED HEATING. SPORADIC STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF HAIL AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN THUS FAR AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS LACK OF FORCING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHEAR MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN A FEW SEVERE HAIL STORMS WELL N OF THE FRONT INTO CNTRL TX. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL THREAT...WITH 1.00 - 1.75 INCH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD WITH TIME ALONG WITH THE DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MAY APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. ..JEWELL.. 01/24/2012 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Widespread convection is now breaking out across NW TX into SW OK, an area which did not see quite the drought relief this fall that areas farther east did. Latest short-term modeling gives increased hope for > 1" totals across much of that region, with at least 0.5" a good bet everywhere. The 1-2" amounts expected along and E of I-44 in OK should come close to erasing the drought designation here. I don't think I've ever been so happy to see an all-rain event like this in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 250113Z - 250245Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL INCREASE AS TSTM COVERAGE GROWS LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE TYPE OF WW...THE PROBABILITY OF ISSUANCE BY 03Z IS 60 PERCENT. 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/BIG BEND...AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DRT AND LRD. PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY S OF THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A RELATIVELY RICH WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF S-CNTRL TX. FARTHER NW...MORE MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 800 MB IN THE 00Z DRT RAOB. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE GRADUALLY REMOVED AS BAND OF FORCED ASCENT /NOW CROSSING THE BIG BEND/ OVERSPREADS THE MODIFIED WARM SECTOR OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH MAY PERSIST BETWEEN 800-700 MB...VEERING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST TSTMS WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A CLUSTER MODE WITH PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE NE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 FYI, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 826 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012 ...VALID 03Z WED JAN 25 2012 - 00Z THU JAN 26 2012... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... ...ERN TX/EXTREME SRN OK... NO CHANGES TO EARLIER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE VERY HI FFG THRU THE REGION....BUT WITH CONTINUOUS MOD/HVY RNFL OVR THE REGION THRU TNGT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH LWR FFG BY MRNG WITH SEVERAL AREAS EXPERIENCING RUNOFF PROBLEMS. LATEST REGIONAL RDR LOOPS SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF MOD/HVY RNFL OVR THE SRN PLNS THIS EVE IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT. 25/00Z RAOB DATA SHOWS NARROW ELEV CAPES ACRS NRN TX INTO OK THAT IS LEADING TO SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND LCLLY HVY RNFL. THERE IS STILL SOME LOLVL DRY AIR THAT IS INHIBITING HIER RNFL RATES. RAOB DATA INTO SRN TX SHOWS MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE CAPES/INSTBLTY THAT WL CONT TO LIFT NWD AND LKLY EXPAND TNGT AND THEN PUSH EWD ON WED AS THE MIDLVL SYS OVR SRN NM EDGES EWD. LATEST WV SATL PICS AND UPR AIR DATA INDICATES A SHRTWV PUSHING THRU FAR WRN TX THAT EXTENDS INTO NERN MEXICO THIS EVE. AS THIS IMPULSE ROTATES NEWD AND INTO TX...CONVECTION SHLD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP SWD INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS GETTING PULLED NWD FM THE GULF OF MEX. UPR FLOW IS ALREADY SOMEWHAT DIFL...BUT WL BECOME VERY DIFL TNGT WITH IMPRESSIVE UPR JET COUPLING THAT WL INDUCE A LRG REGION OF VERY STG UPR DVRG FLOW AND DEEP LYRD ASCENT. LOLVL FLOW WL INCRS WITH MDLS SHOWING 8H SRLY FLOW ARND 50 KTS THAT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MSTR WL SUPPORT VERY ANOMALOUS MSTR FLUX. PWS ARE FCST TO BUILD TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO TWO STDS ABV NORMAL AND ARND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. 8H V-FLUX MSTR ANOMALIES WL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3-5 STDS ABV NORMAL. MDLS ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TRAINING NWD TNGT THRU CNTRL TX...THEN AS MIDLVL HGT FALLS BEGIN TO PUSH EWD LATER TNGT INTO WED MRNG...CONVECTION SHLD BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH POSSIBLY SOME ACCELERATION LATER WED AS HGT FALLS PUSH E. THE MAIN THREAT SHLD BE INTO WED MRNG THRU CNTRL/ERN TX WHERE LCL 1-2 INCH PER HR RNFL RATES ARE LKLY. ISOLD 4-5 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLY WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS FOR SEVERAL HRS. ECKERT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 From Nesdis... SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/25/12 0315Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0300Z KUSSELSON NOAA AMSU:0111Z DMSP SSMIS:2315Z/2320Z NASA TRMM:1700Z/1830Z . LOCATION...CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... . ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC... . EVENT...FOCUS ON NE TO SW CONVECTIVE BAND NORTHERN TEXAS THRU FT WORTH AREA TO CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH AND WEST OF AUS/SAT... . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE BAND CENTERED NEAR MILLS AND BROWN COUNTY NORTH AND NE THROUGH THE DALLAS-FT WORTH AREA INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS FIRST WEAKNESS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST AND PULLING AWAY FROM BIG BEND AREA. ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT OF CLOUDS NEAR BIG BEND ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING BIG BEND AREA AND PIECE OF JET NOW COMING AROUND EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW THAT WAS CUT OFF BACK IN S CENTRAL NM. WITH SHORT WAVES AND JET ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NUDGING WEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...CAN ONLY MEAN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HANGING AROUND FOR AWHILE CENTRAL TEXAS AND ACTUALLY COULD EASILY GET STRONGER SOUTHWARD FROM CURRENT CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH IMPULSES AND JET PUSHING INTO C TEXAS. OBVIOUSLY HIGHEST MOISTURE ALONG UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DEEP MOISTURE NUDGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS STILL PROVIDING 150-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL MOISTURE THERE AND WITH GOOD INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR BACK BUILDING OF CELLS AND TRAINING FOR RAPID INCREASES IN ACCUMULATED AMOUNTS FOR LATER TONIGHT. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0300-0600Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SHORT WAVES COMING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUT OF BIG BEND WITH JET ACTIVITY EAST OF MAIN LOW THAT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SE NM/SW TEXAS BORDER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CENTRAL TEXAS ACTIVITY AND EVEN MORE SO WITH WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. HARD TO PICK AN INDIVIDUAL AREA WHERE FF THREAT COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE ISOLATED PROBLEMS CENTERED FROM THE TX-OK BORDER AREA (MONTAGUE(TX)/JEFFERSON(OK) TO GRAYSON (TX)/ BRYAN(OK) SSW TO SAN SABA/LAMPASAS COUNTY TEXAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Rain still falling over much of this region, so Dallas decided to pull a trigger on a Flash Flood Watch... 936 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JACKSBORO TO COMANCHE. * THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. * HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO ADD AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES TO THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. * UNDERPASSES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...CREEKS AND DITCHES...AND MANY STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY SEE RAPID WATER LEVEL RISES. AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE WATER OVER ROADS...USE EXTREME CAUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Here's the first Flash Flood Warning from the Dallas/Ft. Worth WFO. Probably will be more to come from this region tonight and Wednesday. FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1003 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... HOOD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOMERVELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS * UNTIL 100 AM CST * AT 1000 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN NEAR GRANBURY...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT THAT LOW LYING AREAS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO FLOOD. RADAR INDICATES THAT AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 AM CST. TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 377 IN HOOD COUNTY AND ALONG HIGHWAY 67 IN SOMERVELL COUNTY MAY BE DANGEROUS TONIGHT IN THE RAIN. * LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE...GRANBURY...GLEN ROSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM UNTIL 500 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF AUSTIN TEXAS TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER FAR W TX WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO S CENTRAL TX. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS S TX...AND THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LAREDO AREA NEWD. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY STRONG ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF A 40+ KT LLJ /EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 300 M2 PER S2/...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE RANGE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL /MORE DISCRETE/ STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LARGER LINEAR MCS AND MOVE EWD. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Two different severe warnings in Val Verde county. One of the Val Verde cells just triggered a warning for Edwards. Hail to golfballs... Hotlinked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Some rotation at the North portion of the line in Edwards county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY...S-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13... VALID 250534Z - 250630Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 13 CONTINUES. PRIMARILY A SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING LINEAR MCS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY W OF WW 13 OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS S-CNTRL TX NEAR LRD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND WOULD POSE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL HAIL/TORNADO RISK. WELL-ADVERTISED LINEAR MCS INVOF EDWARDS/KINNEY COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND E/NEWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY WITHIN A ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CENTERED OVER FAR W TX. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER HAS REMAINED LARGELY POST-FRONTAL THUS FAR...PRIMARILY POSING A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. AS ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE BROADER WARM SECTOR...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS PROBABLE...YIELDING A MIX OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING FARTHER SE TOWARDS LRD...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARING TO BE UNDERWAY. GIVEN A MUCH BROADER WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG WITH STRONG SLYS AOA 30 KT ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THIS SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. ..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Figured out the first term, probability of convective precip over 0.01 inches. Shear and CAPE don't count if it won't rain, I suppose. IMBY first Morning juiciness near San Antonio, San Marcos and Austin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 From Nesdis: SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/25/12 1021Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1002Z VOGT BLENDED TPW THROUGH: 0846Z . LOCATION...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA... . ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC... . EVENT... TRAINING OF MOD/HVY RAIN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... BEST CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT ACROSS TX/OK CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD AHEAD OF THE UL LOW NOW LOCATED IN WRN TX. AHEAD OF THE UL LOW, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BREAK OUT AND BECOME VERY STRONG LIKELY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UL JET MAX THAT HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE UL TROF AND IS PUSHING NEWD ACROSS SE TX ATTM. ALSO HELPING IN SIGNIFICANT RAIN RATES IS THE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE IN TX/AR/OK... THE LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS THAT PW'S ARE HIGHEST ALONG THE SE TX COAST AND ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE MAINLY NWD INTO AR/OK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. PW VALUES IN CENTRAL/ERN TX ARE AROUND 1.3-1.5". . RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 0.25"/HR UP TO 1.5-2.0"/HR IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. TRAINING OF THIS RAIN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WAS MAINLY ALONG THE NE TX BORDER INTO OK. 6-HR EXPERIMENTAL QMORPH ESTIMATES CONFIRM THIS WITH A 3-4" MAX OVER CHOCTAW/ATOKA COUNTIES IN OK ENDING AT 07Z. BUT SINCE THEN, THE AREA OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND THIS HAS BEEN VERY APPARENT IN SATELLITE TRENDS. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1020-1430Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK... EXPECT MOSTLY MOD/HVY RAINFALL TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST=CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE UP TO 1.5"/HR IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING WILL OCCUR AS THE UL LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EWD ACROSS TX. LL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS AS THEIR WILL BE A CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF LL MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 E-mail from Jeff: SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for all of SE TX until 1100am. Wind Advisory in effect until noon Large line of strong to severe thunderstorms extends along and east of I-35 from near Austin to west of Victoria this morning. Ahead of this line, increasing large scale lift is starting to result in the formation of discrete cells from near Victoria to College Station. These cells are racing northward at 35-45mph in the very strong low level flow regime in place over the region. Low level shear profiles remain more than favorable for storm rotation and storms will have to be watched closely as they move eastward into the warm sector. While the tornado threat remains across the area, it appears the main threat will be severe straight line winds along the leading edge of the main squall line. This line south of San Antonio is bowing eastward due to strong mid level flow wrapping around the southern side of the upper level storm centered over W TX. Punching of this line eastward is a classic wind damage setup as stronger winds above the surface are transported to the surface. Note: Very strong inflow winds have been affecting the entire region overnight with wind gust of 40-45mph. These winds have relaxed a little in the past hour, but observation sites are still gusting well above 30mph. These winds have already resulted in damage to trees and power lines in the Katy, Kingwood, Humble, and Spring areas. Wind gust so far have been: Sugar Land: 45 Wharton: 45 Katy: 45 BUSH IAH: 43 Heavy rainfall appears to be focused along I-35 where 3-5 inches has fallen overnight. Still wary of training cells starting to develop over the region from Wharton to College Station, but thus far rainfall totals have been manageable in this area. Still feel with the threat for cell training in an incredible moist air mass some hefty totals could result in a short period of time, but the main excessive rainfall threat looks to be north and just west of SE TX although our western counties from College Station to Columbus could be under the gun shortly. Will continue to go with widespread 1-2 inches and isolated 4-5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Bow echo and tornado warning in CLL from 7-8:15 am. I heard a high wind event but no visual sighting. Checking on reports of funnel clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Waiting for a survey from Austin. Photo of a board (2x4?) driven into a stome or masonry wall. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 251 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012 ...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR NORTHEAST AUSTIN TX... A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS MORNING IN THE AREA ALONG SPRINGDALE ROAD IN NORTHEAST AUSTIN. THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED... EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012 EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0 EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 30.3221/-97.6536 AT 258 AM EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 33.3381/-97.6551 AT 305 AM DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.14 DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 50 THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF COMMERCIAL PARK DRIVE AND OLD MANOR ROAD...WITH RADAR INDICATING A TOUCHDOWN TIME NEAR 2:58 AM. DAMAGE CONTINUED NORTH THROUGH AN INDUSTRIAL PARK...THEN ACROSS U.S. 290...BEFORE ENTERING THE WALNUT PLACE SUBDIVISION. FURTHER DAMAGE OCCURRED TO HOMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL... WITH TREES ON THE EAST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL LAYING DOWN TOWARD THE WEST AND CONVERGING WITH THE DAMAGE TO THE HOMES. DEBRIS WAS NOTED ALONG FERGUSON LANE...WITH THE TORNADO PATH ENDING JUST WEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF FERGUSON LANE AND SANSOM ROAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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