jrips27 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Slight risk tomorrow for some in the SE. Not much popping tonight but it could get interesting as we head into the early morning. I'm so bored with this winter, I'll take anything. Discuss. SPC: ...MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS... SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/VA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDING EARLY DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE /POSSIBLY INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES/ MAY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO A CONTINUED/STEADY MOIST INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN/JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /ACCENTUATED BY A 45-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/. WITH TIME...SUBSEQUENT DIURNALLY-AIDED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT AS DELINEATED BY THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION. MODEST DESTABILIZATION /ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAKER/ SHOULD ALSO OCCUR DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY/CAROLINAS WITHIN A LESS MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS /MAINLY 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR A WEAKENING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD/EVENTUAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES /WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT/ INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It certainly has the feel of severe weather here. 61 degrees at nearly 11pm in the coldest part of winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Like i noticed before the capes in Ark are unusual this time OF SEASON,sounds like the SPC IS FIXING TO THROW OUT WATCHES MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...SRN TN...NW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 210402Z - 210530Z A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN AR...NRN MS...SRN TN AND NW AL LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE MAY EXIST AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR TEXARKANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS ERN AR INTO SWRN TN AND NRN AL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NW TN ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN CNTRL MO. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE IN THE TN VALLEY HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME WITH STORMS LIKELY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG INVERSION LAYER SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT SOUTH OF MEMPHIS AND NEAR TUPELO SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IF CELLS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. IF THE CELLS TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE AND ROTATE...THEN THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 SPC just threw up a Tornado WATCH for NW Alabama, northern MS and parts of TN... Could be interesting in the overnight hours as that line fills in and runs into the moist, unstable air across this area. This is in effect until 5 AM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Lightning seems to be on the increase. It's been a while since I've checked Vaisala and saw more than 100 strikes, as common as it is 9 months out of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Lightning seems to be on the increase. It's been a while since I've checked Vaisala and saw more than 100 strikes, as common as it is 9 months out of the year. Broken clouds where i'm at,lighting like you said i can see in the W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Suspicious-looking storm south of Bowling Green KY at 1221 EST. Difficult to tell its intensity because of range-folding, but its not far from where an EF2 hit a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Capes died own In Ark but have rose again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The storm that was south of Bowling Green KY appears to regaining some version of a mesocyclone. Not sure if it can do anything just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Might be getting close to some storm warnings west of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1240 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 115 AM CST * AT 1235 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF CENTERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... SPRING HILL AROUND 110 AM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Might be getting close to some storm warnings west of Nashville. Here we go, TOR between Nashville and Lawrenceburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Not much across the Watch area, only a small circulation north of Oxford MS currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 358 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 TNC055-099-211015- /O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120121T1015Z/ GILES TN-LAWRENCE TN- 358 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN GILES COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CST... AT 353 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF LORETTO...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCEBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PULASKI...LORETTO...MINOR HILL AND ELKTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 A bow echo about to push into Tupelo, MS. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 401 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 445 AM CST * AT 401 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW HARMONY...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF TRACE STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BALDWYN... FULTON...PONTOTOC...TUPELO...TISHOMINGO STATE PARK AND TRACE STATE PARK. THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BAY SPRINGS LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The line coming through TN looks pretty impressive this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EASTERN MISSISSIPPI FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 455 AM UNTIL NOON CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ATHENS GEORGIA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Impressive storm lightning wise just came thru. A couple of ctg strikes hit pretty close to the house, really neat stuff for this time of year. Temp is 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Paying close attention this morn! Headed to south mountain state park this morning for some training. Pray for nothing to severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Paying close attention this morn! Headed to south mountain state park this morning for some training. Pray for nothing to severe Be carefull today! Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 602 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-221115- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER- IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 602 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THE LINE WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD... ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER... AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HOWEVER... THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS... ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TODAY. LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS OF THE UPSTATE... NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Just got this EAS Activation on my All hazards radio and found it online at http://mesonet.agron...-KGSP-SV-W-0002: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 744 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... GRAHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... MADISON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SWAIN COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 845 AM EST * AT 742 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF NEWPORT TO 12 MILES EAST OF GATLINBURG TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARYVILLE TO 22 MILES WEST OF ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WATERVILLE AND TAPOCO... NEWFOUND GAP AND FONTANA VILLAGE... HOT SPRINGS AND ALLENSTAND... WHITEROCK AND WALNUT... MARSHALL AND CANTO... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I don't think I ever remember this many (albeit lower end) severe weather days in the winter like we've had. Tornado watch and 62 degrees at 8 am in Atlanta on January 21. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Quiet here this morning. Crazy that we have to worry about severe weather more this winter than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Quiet here this morning. Crazy that we have to worry about severe weather more this winter than snow. Don't think we have to worry about either around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Here is a photo of the gust front as it came through my place (4 miles ENE of Franklin, NC) I monitored traffic on the scanner that indicated several trees were down in the Pumpkintown Rd area and the power was out in Jackson County (this is just over the ridge from me in the next county over) and an EMS unit advised there were several large limbs in the road on Wayah Rd (in the other direction). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Wow, It's ugly out there this morning in North Georgia. My fiance just called me and said it's hailing in Jasper, GA. Nothing here quite yet in Marietta, GA but I'm battening down the hatches for this line. Picked up .28" yesterday from a long duration light soaking rain, looking for more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Suspicious cell Southeast of Brevard NC getting ready to cross into Greenviille County SC...if it can tap into any additional instability across the Upstate, we may have a brief spin-up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think I'm gonna get a broken part of this line... 61.6o with a dew of 59o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Almost continuous lightning here in Midtown Atlanta. Probably one of the worst January thunderstorms I can ever remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I have lived in ATL 30 years and this is a top 10 thunderstorm day here and probably top two or three for the winter season.. Small hail, incredibly heavy rain, brilliant CG bolts very close by. Not a ton of wind, looks like the really severe wind and hail went just south. Not been able to measure the rain yet, could get 3" maybe total from this entire event ( there was also a pretty good T-storm at about 8 AM. Awesome! I bet Peachtree Creek is flooding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.