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January 21st Snowstorm Obs


Baroclinic Zone

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to call something b.s right off the bat ....where a band of nearly 3/hr stuff was falllin for a couple hours + seems silly

North haven will be near the jackpot but a total like that would be on pace for a foot....no one will see a foot out of this. Jackpot will prob be 9 maybe 10

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In most storms there is gonna be some weenie band that sets up and exceeds forecasts. If the met's forecasted for that upper end ..then the 90% of the region that doesn't get nearly as much would call it a busted forecast.

Up here on the fringe 1.5 inches was it. Flurries at times and a nippy 13.5F. About 5.5 to 8 inches on the ground.

Does this depend on what elevation of the property you're on?

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Dude every storm we go thru this. All you ever do is take the GFS qpf as verbatim and make a map off that

I told you I used the NAM/GFS/SREF...I did a mix.

Up until like maybe the 15z SREF the probs for 4''+ were incredibly low and even not on the map...there weren't even any probs for 8''+...but by the 15z run the probs for 4''+ increased a decent amount but I was already at the bar before the game.

The NAM for QPF across the region had anywhere from 0.4'' to I think it was 0.6-0.7'' across eastern MA...GFS was around 0.3'' to 0.4''. I thought the NAM was a bit too wet so I adjusted lower more towards the GFS.

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North haven will be near the jackpot but a total like that would be on pace for a foot....no one will see a foot out of this. Jackpot will prob be 9 maybe 10

based on what?

you can't say what is or isn't gonna happen when a band like that sets up and drops about .65 or so qpf over a location

i've been watchin the qpf history in s. ct and they reached .5 about an hour ago. prolly near .6 plus somewhere so ya i buy it

it's gonna be an outlier either way bc the band was only about 3-6 miles wide and there may not be more reports from directly under it. picture proof would be nice but what is .6 or .65 qpf with temps in low 20's and great snow growth /ratio's in that death band equal ...

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based on what?

you can't say what is or isn't gonna happen when a band like that sets up and drops about .65 or so qpf over a location

i've been watchin the qpf history in s. ct and they reached .5 about an hour ago. prolly near .6 plus somewhere so ya i buy it

it's gonna be an outlier either way bc the band was only about 3-6 miles wide and there may not be more reports from directly under it. picture proof would be nice but what is .6 or .65 qpf with temps in low 20's and great snow growth /ratio's in that death band equal ...

Based on obs, other reported totals, family, and 24 years of living in that area

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Based on obs, other reported totals, family, and 24 years of living in that area

not sure what 24 years experience would mean

haven't seen any obs directly under death band

again what does .60-.65 qpf (already fallen) equal for totals with the ratio's under that band?

here in wakefield mass it is starting to snow better again and i'm interested to see wether we get a nice band from ORH over to the northshore

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