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1/21/2012 snow/ice obs thread


famartin

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Hopefully everyone has seen my offices facebook page and has 'liked' it. There are good posts (with soundings) on there today. ;)

Have liked it...have pointed friends and family to it...was expecting it to be a conduit for warnings, reports, and weather trivia, but the detailed posts with model data and explanations have far exceeded my expectations. Between Hurricane Schwartz showing 500 mb maps and explaining the NAO on air and your office on facebook dropping knowledge, the Philly area could become the most informed consumers of weather info in the east. Nice job.

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per obs in the mid atl thread cho is getting snow, didnt think it would be that far south.

Yeah me neither. I haven't looked at any upper air charts but the radar looks like they are receiving fairly moderate precipitation. I'm wondering if it's falling hard enough to drag down some colder temperatures allowing the precip to change to sleet and snow.

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Yeah me neither. I haven't looked at any upper air charts but the radar looks like they are receiving fairly moderate precipitation. I'm wondering if it's falling hard enough to drag down some colder temperatures allowing the precip to change to sleet and snow.

interesting to note...how many miles further south is this than progged?

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interesting to note...how many miles further south is this than progged?

I originally forecasted Northern Virginia. I thought Richmond would be too far south. They're receiving good southerly flow so I don't expect them to stay in sleet though the night. They should change over to rain.

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Regarding the snow and sleet reported further south... I'd have to guess that this is a feature of a stronger/faster warm advection-related precipitation band than anticipated by the models (shocker). In the attached image, you can see the 12Z GFS QPF from 0Z-6Z on the upper right, and the latest radar image elsewhere. Note how much further ahead the southern band (circled in pink) is compared to the northern band, whlie the GFS progged them to be on a similar pace.

post-39-0-47077900-1327118786.gif

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Regarding the snow and sleet reported further south... I'd have to guess that this is a feature of a stronger/faster warm advection-related precipitation band than anticipated by the models (shocker). In the attached image, you can see the 12Z GFS QPF from 0Z-6Z on the upper right, and the latest radar image elsewhere. Note how much further ahead the southern band (circled in pink) is compared to the northern band, whlie the GFS progged them to be on a similar pace.

great stuff..thanks...

the implications for us nw of philly would be what?

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Regarding the snow and sleet reported further south... I'd have to guess that this is a feature of a stronger/faster warm advection-related precipitation band than anticipated by the models (shocker). In the attached image, you can see the 12Z GFS QPF from 0Z-6Z on the upper right, and the latest radar image elsewhere. Note how much further ahead the southern band (circled in pink) is compared to the northern band, whlie the GFS progged them to be on a similar pace.

Very cool, so does this help enhance or degrade the situation for this storm, i mean does it pull up more warm air aloft, or increase qpf?

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1159 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 210559Z - 211000Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PA LATER

TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF

THE MCD AREA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING

FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A LARGE AREA OF

PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE

TROUGH FROM SRN OH EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. A

THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MAY EXIST ACROSS SW PA FOR A FEW

MORE HOURS DUE TO WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE PITTSBURG AREA.

HOWEVER...FROM PITTSBURG EWD TO NEAR HARRISBURG...THE PRECIPITATION

SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS BELOW -10C IN

THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS MARKEDLY

STRENGTHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PA LATER TONIGHT AS

THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH

LIFT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR

MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 01/21/2012

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