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DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk

TheTrials

By TheTrials,
in New York City Metro

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

An offshore storm clipped the Twin Forks that month...depositing 4 to 5 inches generally...though just 0.1" in Port Jeff.

Yeah, that was a massive screw job for our area, an eventual triple phasing storm for Newfoundland, had it gone 100 miles west we'd have all gotten over a foot of snow.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

2004 was pretty horrid as well...what did it have 0.7 or something? I know 2003-2004 was only the 3rd or 4th time double digits fell in Dec/Jan and less than 1 fell in February.

2003-04 was one of the best front half of winters I remember up until 2010-11. We had the early December MECS, 18" in my backyard, then a remarkably cold January and plenty of clipper events. I don't have my records in front of me, but I think we had nearly 40" by the end of January.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

2003-04 was one of the best front half of winters I remember up until 2010-11. We had the early December MECS, 18" in my backyard, then a remarkably cold January and plenty of clipper events. I don't have my records in front of me, but I think we had nearly 40" by the end of January.

Upton had 47.0" on Feb 1, 2004...but just 13.2" the rest of the way...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Upton had 47.0" on Feb 1, 2004...but just 13.2" the rest of the way...

Graphic courtesy of Board member NorthShoreWx:

post-747-0-04053800-1328065115.gif

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Where do you see any cold air? Any storm threat for the Northeast? Euro ensembles point to rapid warming in the next couple of week--more of the same ol same ol.

Calm down. The euro ensembles change every run. They showed it cold in the day 11-15 range many times this winter. How did that work out?

Wait for the euro weeklies tomorrow night.

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted

Calm down. The euro ensembles change every run. They showed it cold in the day 11-15 range many times this winter. How did that work out?

Wait for the euro weeklies tomorrow night.

Even if the rest of the winter ends up like the previous 2 months....the "weenies" here have already handled it better than the pessimists and warm weather lovers....its odd.

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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
Posted

Euro weeklies are overrated. Just two days ago they showed the most amazing look of the winter for weeks 3 and 4 and part of week 2. Now, everyone is hanging on what they show tomorrow, just 3 days later. If they really do flip to a less favorable pattern tomorrow, they have just as much value as today's 12z 348 GFS surface map.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Euro weeklies are overrated. Just two days ago they showed the most amazing look of the winter for weeks 3 and 4 and part of week 2. Now, everyone is hanging on what they show tomorrow, just 3 days later. If they really do flip to a less favorable pattern tomorrow, they have just as much value as today's 12z 348 GFS surface map.

Thursday is when weeklies come out wirh new data. Monday is an intermediate update.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Take a look at Europe! Forecasts weeks ago were for a warm Feb. well people are dieing do to the extreme cold. Up to 90 now dead and climbing. Where were the models on this 2 weeks ago?

Its fairly unusual that a Russian high will do what this particular one is doing, often times those western Russia highs form during a +NAO and as a result most of Europe other than the far eastern parts are mild. This one however formed when an Icelandic block was developing, as a result its putting Europe into an epic easterly flow...the classic cold signal for Europe is a high over Iceland or Greenland, not a high over Russia with a secondary high over the Eastern Atlantic. I think this may be the same pattern that caused the very snowy UK winter of 1990-91 while most of the entire NH was otherwise set on fire.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

This year, yes. That's what an 01-02 winter has done to me!

The 70's and 80's were much worse.

Completely untrue...and I was there...here is some data from the local cooperative at Westbury in Nassau County during the 1980's....

Westbury Annual Snowfall:

1980-81: 22.7"

1981-82: 27.5"

1982-83: 31.4"

1983-84: 30.4"

1984-85: 28.8"

1985-86: 16.5"

1986-87: 33.4"

1987-88: 24.4"

1988-89: 15.8"

1989-90: 23.5"

Mean: 25.44"

Westbury Notable Snowstorms:

1/7/81: 6.9"

3/5/81: 10.4"

1/14/82: 8.1"

4/6/82: 8.8"

12/12/82: 5.7"

2/12/83: 16.5"

1/11/84: 4.7"

1/18/84: 5.7"

3/9/84: 7.0"

12/27/84: 6.8"

1/17/85: 5.5"

2/6/85: 4.9"

2/8/86: 4.0"

2/11/86: 4.1"

1/23/87: 8.2"

1/26/87: 4.6"

2/23/87: 4.8"

1/4/88: 7.1"

1/9/88: 6.8"

12/13/88: 3.7"

1/6/89: 6.2"

11/23/89: 7.2"

2/25/90: 4.4"

Mean Annual Snowfall (1980-81 - 1989-90)

Westbury: 25.44"

Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX: 25.41"

LaGuardia Airport: 21.66"

John F Kennedy Airport: 20.28"

Central Park: 19.74"

Since I've moved out to Port Jeferson, I've often commented on how snowy the 2001 - 2010 period had been at the nearby Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX. But the above record clearly shows that during the 1980's Westbury and Upton OKX, were in a virtual dead heat for mean annual snowfall.

November and April Snow Events At Westbury

11/17/80: 0.2"

4/6/82: 8.8"

4/19/83: 1.4"

11/19/86: 1.7"

11/11/87: 1.1"

11/23/89: 7.2"

4/7/90: 2.6"

It also got quite cold in Westbury during the 1980's. On 10 separate days the mercury dipped to zero Farenheit or below:

12/25/80: -1

1/9/81: 0

1/12/81: -1

1/17/82: -5

1/18/82: -7

1/21/84: -3

1/22/84: -5

1/21/85: -4

1/11/88: 0

1/15/88: -1

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

I just went through and looked at some of those events in 83-87, its amazing how many of those were better for LI than NYC, also mostly overrunning type storms or coastal gradient events with the arctic boundary setup from inland to the coast with a weak low riding along the coast, no mega storms or bombs at all.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

I just went through and looked at some of those events in 83-87, its amazing how many of those were better for LI than NYC, also mostly overrunning type storms or coastal gradient events with the arctic boundary setup from inland to the coast with a weak low riding along the coast, no mega storms or bombs at all.

Well, it missed Central Park, but 2/23/1987 might've been called a "snow bomb". I think Willow Grove had something like 15" in 6 hours.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Well, it missed Central Park, but 2/23/1987 might've been called a "snow bomb". I think Willow Grove had something like 15" in 6 hours.

I've always said the no 8 inch storm at Central Park from 84-92 or whatever it was should not be in existence. Either someone measured incorrectly that day or they just got extremely unlucky due to 2 megabands either side of them. Even JFK which changed over 2 hours earlier than NYC saw 7 inches which is what Central Park reported. LGA/EWR both had 11 and 13 inches respectively I think. I clearly remember it started snowing about 10am and by 2pm there was easily 7-8 inches already in northern Queens. The forecast was 2-4 and changing to rain I think.

Edit...this was 1/22/87, but same effect really...I think SW NJ saw 10-14 in that too.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1987/us0223.php

Sort of looks like 12/19/09 in that the 850 and 700 lows do not take good tracks for NYC.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Ewr had over 11" on 1/22/87....Id be willing to guess that between 2/83 and 1/87 nyc/ewr had no 'heavy snow' obs reports...I could be wrong but I just can't think of one time it really snowed heavily ...plus all the event were in the 3 to 6 range...same goes for 87-88 and 88-89

I've always said the no 8 inch storm at Central Park from 84-92 or whatever it was should not be in existence. Either someone measured incorrectly that day or they just got extremely unlucky due to 2 megabands either side of them. Even JFK which changed over 2 hours earlier than NYC saw 7 inches which is what Central Park reported. LGA/EWR both had 11 and 13 inches respectively I think. I clearly remember it started snowing about 10am and by 2pm there was easily 7-8 inches already in northern Queens. The forecast was 2-4 and changing to rain I think.

Edit...this was 1/22/87, but same effect really...I think SW NJ saw 10-14 in that too.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1987/us0223.php

Sort of looks like 12/19/09 in that the 850 and 700 lows do not take good tracks for NYC.

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