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DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk


TheTrials

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I could be wrong here, but I'm pretty sure this is a forum on this board to discuss all things political. Of course, immediately jumping to labels such as "right wing" certainly seems to be your MO.

I was merely speculating on the poster's defense of JB....I think I mistook him for another poster. JB's politics are right wing it seems by reading his posts. I think it is a label he would embrace.

I am also at least as frustrated as you about the lack of snow and the number of times the pattern looked ready to change. DT finally gave up. LC gave up a couple weeks ago. JB just keeps hyping... and talking about the lack of global warming

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DT's discussion looks spot on, no real -NAO or AO, PV in Alaska like it's been the whole winter and MJO sucks...hard to see how JB is coming up with his Fab Feb with this disastrous combo.

exactly....if feb 2012 is anything like feb 2010 (like all the weenies are hoping for) ill stop posting for 6 months

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At least 1 or 2 weenies fell for it I'm sure.

My issue with JB and the reason I stopped following him is not his politics, but his obsession with them. 2/3 of his tweets are not weather related in any way

Big tweet by JB this morning, Jan 96 pattern setting up for the 2nd week of February. He sees 1-3 feet from DC to Maine.

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At least 1 or 2 weenies fell for it I'm sure.

My issue with JB and the reason I stopped following him is not his politics, but his obsession with it. 2/3 of his tweets are not weather related in any way

Ha, well I believed it and why wouldn't I? He's said plenty of things near that magnitude of insanity multiple times before so why not now.

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from DT: at least instead of hyping it he's recognizing that it may just be the models crying wolf yet again....

***NOTIFICATION *** the 0z EURO ensemble and the GFS ensemble this morning have turned MUCH colder for the eastern US for FEB. Both models develop a strong Ridge over the West coast of N America which allows for arctic air to move into the eastern half of the US FEB 4-8. That Being said this would be the 4th or 5th time this winter the Models have showed a much colder pattern developing in the 11-15 day for N America ... and in every case the model data has been disastrously wrong . I for one remain EXTREMELY skeptical

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from DT: at least instead of hyping it he's recognizing that it may just be the models crying wolf yet again....

***NOTIFICATION *** the 0z EURO ensemble and the GFS ensemble this morning have turned MUCH colder for the eastern US for FEB. Both models develop a strong Ridge over the West coast of N America which allows for arctic air to move into the eastern half of the US FEB 4-8. That Being said this would be the 4th or 5th time this winter the Models have showed a much colder pattern developing in the 11-15 day for N America ... and in every case the model data has been disastrously wrong . I for one remain EXTREMELY skeptical

I share DT's skepticism. My thinking for the first week in February is that even as a short-lived and perhaps fairly sharp cold shot (probably along the lines of those seen since mid-January) is plausible, the East would still wind up on the mild side of normal. The western Great Lakes region and Northern Plains could wind up cooler than normal. Right now, I just don't see the cold locking in, especially if the Euro's MJO forecasts are reasonably accurate and if the MJO remains persistently locked in the warmer phases for the time being.

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JB just said that he thinks February will be cold and snowy in the east.

"thinks" is your keyword

As I posted in the pattern change thread, there are signs on the GFS of a very cold start to February in the east, but it's not the first time this has been shown this year, and so far we have struck out. The one exception would be the cold and dry pattern that we saw the first week of January.

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I share DT's skepticism. My thinking for the first week in February is that even as a short-lived and perhaps fairly sharp cold shot (probably along the lines of those seen since mid-January) is plausible, the East would still wind up on the mild side of normal. The western Great Lakes region and Northern Plains could wind up cooler than normal. Right now, I just don't see the cold locking in, especially if the Euro's MJO forecasts are reasonably accurate and if the MJO remains persistently locked in the warmer phases for the time being.

Have to agree. While the PNA spike being progged on guidance looks nice, you still have to take into account the lower height anomalies / everlasting PV near the Davis straights.

That never bodes well for us. As soon as the pv shifts south for any period of time near Hudson bay, the next short wave ejects near the lakes, and re energizes that PV and drags it back north. There's no blocking with staying power to stop that from happening near Greenland. It's been was rinse and repeat this entire winter sans a few days.

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he's about to get embarrassed...going for double YTD snowfalls (ie if you got 12 YTD take another 24 and you get 36 total) Anyone see that happening in this wretched winter? Come to think about it, last Sat was a miracle.

Works for me. 8 more inches between now and the end of March...yeah, I can see that happening, nothing miraculous about it. Whoopdie...

Just because this may end up as one of the all time crappiest winters, doesn't mean it will be flavored like '98 or '02. As bad as it is, it hasn't been as dismal as those two.

I think total snowfall ends up in the teens for most places that only have a few inches as of now, i.e., a good solid winter by DCA standards :whistle:

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