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DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk


TheTrials

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It's interesting when you consider that JB had been making claims all winter about the cold showing up. But he didn't just stop with that, he hyped each prediction of coming cold by prefacing it with such things as , "...people will be talking about it for years to come," and "everyone will be wondering where spring is".

All those predictions failed, as has been hashed over and over again here.

Now the biggest story unfolding before us, with true historic significance, is this incredibly expansive and long duration late winter torch. JB not only ignored it or missed it, he continues to go back to ranting about cold returning.

Is there anyone here that doesn't see this guy as an absolute joke?

He's had his share of ups and downs. He gets hot at times, gets cold at times. With that said, his seasonal call from 11/1 on was abysmal and his calls for individual events were even worse.

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Be careful for what you wish for. That doesn't always work out so great for us. His analog years included 82, 91, 97, and 2002. 3 of those 4 were not great winters if you take out the blizzard of 83. It could get too strong and end up with a 97-98 repeat, which would just be awful coming off of this past winter.

DT says that an El nino is on the way for the summer. :popcorn:

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Be careful for what you wish for. That doesn't always work out so great for us. His analog years included 82, 91, 97, and 2002. 3 of those 4 were not great winters if you take out the blizzard of 83. It could get too strong and end up with a 97-98 repeat, which would just be awful coming off of this past winter.

We need to hope for a weak to moderate el nino

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Bastardi pointed out on twitter that JMA showing cool anonomoly this summer in Northeast. Regardless of him, an incoming Niño makes for a generally cruddy summer in NE, no? 2009 was THE stinker. It'd be hard to swallow a storm less winter followed by a handicapped hurricane season, though our Nina's haven't served up much lately.

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Be careful for what you wish for. That doesn't always work out so great for us. His analog years included 82, 91, 97, and 2002. 3 of those 4 were not great winters if you take out the blizzard of 83. It could get too strong and end up with a 97-98 repeat, which would just be awful coming off of this past winter.

The only one of those years that followed a multi-year Nino was 2002. Blocking is much more important, provided the Nino doesn't get too strong. Either way, A Nino should be more fun than a Nino, because at least the STJ will get active, which will promote more frequent, larger, and more moisture-laden storms.

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Bastardi pointed out on twitter that JMA showing cool anonomoly this summer in Northeast. Regardless of him, an incoming Niño makes for a generally cruddy summer in NE, no? 2009 was THE stinker. It'd be hard to swallow a storm less winter followed by a handicapped hurricane season, though our Nina's haven't served up much lately.

Really? Does Irene ring a bell?

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BESIDES Irene

Of course "besides." We live in the Northeastern United States. An Irene or Floyd is about as big of a hurricane you'll ever see here. If you truly can't be satisfied with that, you'll need to spend hurricane season in the Outer Banks, Florida, or the Gulf Coast.

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I was referring more to landfalling canes in US. I was quite happy with Irene--an excitement not felt in a long time, but just don't expect anything in our region so I'm looking for things Josh can chase down south.

Of course "besides." We live in the Northeastern United States. An Irene or Floyd is about as big of a hurricane you'll ever see here. If you truly can't be satisfied with that, you'll need to spend hurricane season in the Outer Banks, Florida, or the Gulf Coast.

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I was referring more to landfalling canes in US. I was quite happy with Irene--an excitement not felt in a long time, but just don't expect anything in our region so I'm looking for things Josh can chase down south.

Then we would need a bit less troughing near the East Coast, and more ridging aloft over the GOM.

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Of course "besides." We live in the Northeastern United States. An Irene or Floyd is about as big of a hurricane you'll ever see here. If you truly can't be satisfied with that, you'll need to spend hurricane season in the Outer Banks, Florida, or the Gulf Coast.

The 1938 and even 1944 storms were a lot worse up here. Didn't 1944 have 100+ mph gusts?

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The 1938 and even 1944 storms were a lot worse up here. Didn't 1944 have 100+ mph gusts?

1938 was only worse for the Eastern 1/2 of LI. 1944 supposedly did, as did Hazel. In order to get that, we would need some interaction with a really deep trof, maybe a PV interaction like Nov 1950, as well, if it was a transitioning late-season storm.

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The 1938 and even 1944 storms were a lot worse up here. Didn't 1944 have 100+ mph gusts?

125mph gust on top of the empire state building in the 38 hurricane. 1815 was the real blockbuster storm for nyc and western li with a 13 foot storm surge in lower Manhattan. It is speculated the storm was a legit cat 3 all the way up here. That would have been the storm to see

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A bust for LI? No power for 6 days in my home town Wantagh, plus massive tree damage and a storm surge on par with the 92 noreaster. Epic disaster as predicted no, bust certainly not.

These people posting that it was a bust are truly pathetic. They think Irene was a bust because their house didn't fall down. Tell that to people who lost everything in a flood or who had no power for weeks.

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These people posting that it was a bust are truly pathetic. They think Irene was a bust because their house didn't fall down. Tell that to people who lost everything in a flood or who had no power for weeks.

I'm in Brooklyn and we had overflowing on the belt parkway sheepshead bay, tons of trees down by me 2 on my block alone and I lost power 1am Sunday and didn't come back till Monday. And that's just in Brooklyn where we didn't get the worst

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I'm in Brooklyn and we had overflowing on the belt parkway sheepshead bay, tons of trees down by me 2 on my block alone and I lost power 1am Sunday and didn't come back till Monday. And that's just in Brooklyn where we didn't get the worst

I think the storm was handled very well. Technically, we probably should have been in a TS Warning and not a Hurricane Warning, but NHC was worried because the ECMWF showed very low pressures which could have correlated to higher winds. I also think they realized this was the Northeastern US and if they only issued a TS Warning, some people may not have taken the threat seriously.

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No. But for most of LI, NYC, NJ, DE, MD it was a non event.

Wow horrible post...Middlesex and Monmouth counties were hit hard....have not seens winds like that in my life....parents without power for 2 weeks....me a week....tree damage and flooded basements were amazing

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I have pics on other iPhone from Port Jefferson, and the flooding there was worst I've seen it since 10/91 and 12/92 noreasters. Winds? Not severe, but as long as no one expected the apocalypse from Irene she was a good storm. A category higher alone would've probably added another several billion to an already expensive storm loss.

Wow horrible post...Middlesex and Monmouth counties were hit hard....have not seens winds like that in my life....parents without power for 2 weeks....me a week....tree damage and flooded basements were amazing

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I have pics on other iPhone from Port Jefferson, and the flooding there was worst I've seen it since 10/91 and 12/92 noreasters. Winds? Not severe, but as long as no one expected the apocalypse from Irene she was a good storm. A category higher alone would've probably added another several billion to an already expensive storm loss.

Very nice post....i was at the firehouse that night....dont have any actual wind gusts..but it was the strongest i have seen...you would watch the gust come down the street...like a wall...the bending of trees was amazing....i think we took the brunt of the winds in my location...i never been in hurricane until then and for a weather hobbiest in jersey it was impressive...i will never forget it

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have not seens winds like that in my life...

how high would you estimate the gusts were that you experienced?

it was certainly windy, but i wasn't blown away by them, so to speak.

the highest winds i've observed in our area were the dec 1992 storm,

and the blizzard of 1996.... at least that's what the anemometer in my head told me.

i remember during the dec 92 storm, standing at my family room window at 4am routinely seeing flashes of blue, as transformers were blowing up, one after another. never saw anything remotely like that storm before or since.

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