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DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk


TheTrials

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Quite frankly, the average joe who knows nothing about meteorology could do better just by getting the "feel" of the winter. I've had a few people tell me back in mid January that they thought we'd be basically snowless the rest of the winter, because this "isn't our year." While the term isn't scientific, there is certainly data to back up the notion that Dec 1st-Jan 15th is generally a very good foreteller of the rest of the winter snowfall wise (basically if it looks terrible post New Year's, the final tally should end up below normal per statistics).

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Quite frankly, the average joe who knows nothing about meteorology could do better just by getting the "feel" of the winter. I've had a few people tell me back in mid January that they thought we'd be basically snowless the rest of the winter, because this "isn't our year." While the term isn't scientific, there is certainly data to back up the notion that Dec 1st-Jan 15th is generally a very good foreteller of the rest of the winter snowfall wise (basically if it looks terrible post New Year's, the final tally should end up below normal per statistics.

Completely agree. Outside of 1/20 the area as a whole went basically snowless. That's why I was pretty skeptical of the pattern change forecasts by the models in late January....objects in motion tend to stay in motion....

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The similarities to 01-02 were striking-no thermal gradient, no way for shortwaves to amplify or pull down any meaningful cold air. And the progressive pattern just whisked whatever potential there was right out to sea. Amazing. Hopefully we'll never see it again.

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Interestingly, JB has been mentioned the spring of 1976 quite a bit. That year apparently saw a fading La Nina transitioning to an El Nino which he forecasts we might see this year. Apparently Easter Sunday that year saw temperatures up to 90 that year and was followed by snow in thes ame areas a week or so later. The same thing happened in April 2002 if I recall.

It'll be interesting to see if April and May end up below average in the east. This happened in March 1945, following the warmest March on record.

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Analogs haven't worked all that great this year. We are close to 2001-02 overall but already this March stands to be nothing like March of 02 which was a couple degrees above normal but no real torches (low 70s was the warmest which was similar to our warmest day in Jan that year). This year the warmth has gotten more extreme as we've gone forward so I don't necessarily expect a complete flip by April but anything can happen.

Interestingly, JB has been mentioned the spring of 1976 quite a bit. That year apparently saw a fading La Nina transitioning to an El Nino which he forecasts we might see this year. Apparently Easter Sunday that year saw temperatures up to 90 that year and was followed by snow in thes ame areas a week or so later. The same thing happened in April 2002 if I recall.

It'll be interesting to see if April and May end up below average in the east. This happened in March 1945, following the warmest March on record.

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JB said watch for cold and snow to return to the east in the 1st week of April. :bag:

If that verified - there is a possibility if it snows several inches and is especially wet could yield the same results as the October storm because the trees are going to be blooming this year a few weeks ahead of schedule

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If that verified - there is a possibility if it snows several inches and is especially wet could yield the same results as the October storm because the trees are going to be blooming this year a few weeks ahead of schedule

Well if this warmth contunes, they will start to bloom in the first week of April. But if it stops after next week, then they would bloom around week 2 or 3 of April.

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JB said watch for cold and snow to return to the east in the 1st week of April. :bag:

It's interesting when you consider that JB had been making claims all winter about the cold showing up. But he didn't just stop with that, he hyped each prediction of coming cold by prefacing it with such things as , "...people will be talking about it for years to come," and "everyone will be wondering where spring is".

All those predictions failed, as has been hashed over and over again here.

Now the biggest story unfolding before us, with true historic significance, is this incredibly expansive and long duration late winter torch. JB not only ignored it or missed it, he continues to go back to ranting about cold returning.

Is there anyone here that doesn't see this guy as an absolute joke?

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