Stormlover74 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 He should just say March will return at the of this month. At least that he will correct about. Who cares at this point, we know he will be wrong again...he's been saying winter has been coming since Mid November...bust, bust bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 JB SOI indicates La nina fading and its effects will not be like last spring with mega severe weather. More like 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Somewhere back in this thread are tweets from JB claiming that places along 40 north would make up snowfall to the extent they would be nearing normal over the next 3 weeks. Said this a couple weeks ago. He also said 2 or 3 weeks ago that by now we would all be asking where spring was. Interesting, considering many of us will see short sleeved weather later this week. There are only one of two possibities for JB's incompetence. He has either made a calculated gamble that it is better to string out fantasy wishcasts to keep weenies following along, (even at the price of his reputation). Or, he is just a really really bad forecaster. I actually think it's option 1. He's become the Lindsay Lohan of forecasters. When talent doesn't exist at an intensity enough to make you rise above others, you instead rely on being the outrageous one in the group. It's too bad, there was a time, many years ago when I first followed his columns, when he was informative and grounded in his profession. Totally agree and it is pretty sad. When I first joined these forums back in 2001, I also followed his stuff on Accuwx and there just seemed to be a bit more reasoning that went into his forecasts. Now he is just totally out-to-lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Did I ever say that I believe him? No. I am just posting what he is saying. I want spring to get here so I can start jogging for the police academy. Dude you can't handle running outside in 30s/40s? That's some of the best running weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Joe Bastardi is only good when there is a blocking pattern.... and El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Joe Bastardi is only good when there is a blocking pattern.... and El Nino. Agree-but then one can argue that he would be good since he always goes for the extreme solutions and this type of pattern is more favorable for said solutions. I'd like to see JB nail something tough like this year and something that's generally warm. He tried for that once and did ok, getting 2/3 of the winter fairly right, but he missed a cold and snow December for us. (I think 07-08 maybe?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The only year I recall him not calling for a cold and snowy December was probably 2004. I remember alot of people canceling winter around the 2nd week of January, even though it was quite chilly. And he said things would flip by mid to late January and ended up being correct. Agree-but then one can argue that he would be good since he always goes for the extreme solutions and this type of pattern is more favorable for said solutions. I'd like to see JB nail something tough like this year and something that's generally warm. He tried for that once and did ok, getting 2/3 of the winter fairly right, but he missed a cold and snow December for us. (I think 07-08 maybe?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Did I ever say that I believe him? No. I am just posting what he is saying. I want spring to get here so I can start jogging for the police academy. Real weenies jog thru the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I don't agree at all with this write up off of Rob G' site - first of all he says the winter has been mild and wet - its been mild but not especially wet its been dry as a bone around here for several weeks http://www.liveweath...1048&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It's certainly turned dryer but overall PHL is not that below normal for the winter SINCE DEC 1 7.48 8.47 -0.99 7.61 SINCE JAN 1 3.11 4.91 -1.80 4.37 I don't agree at all with this write up off of Rob G' site - first of all he says the winter has been mild and wet - its been mild but not especially wet its been dry as a bone around here for several weeks http://www.liveweath...1048&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It's certainly turned dryer but overall PHL is not that below normal for the winter SINCE DEC 1 7.48 8.47 -0.99 7.61 SINCE JAN 1 3.11 4.91 -1.80 4.37 He should have titled the article DC - Philly - tornadoes are a little more common down there then up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 JB calling for a huge 12-13 winter--does it ever end?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 JB calling for a huge 12-13 winter--does it ever end?????? well if it's a weak nino,yes has a great point..some real juicy analogs if it's a weak nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think you already know the answer to that one :-) JB calling for a huge 12-13 winter--does it ever end?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You're reading it so maye he's smarter than everyone thinks..... JB calling for a huge 12-13 winter--does it ever end?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You're reading it so maye he's smarter than everyone thinks..... I paid for a year back in August to get 2 free months--If I was monthly I would have canceled back in January and simply come back next November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I paid for a year back in August to get 2 free months--If I was monthly I would have canceled back in January and simply come back next November. For as much as u burn the guy....ur the one going back for more....fool me once shame on you....fool ne twice shame on me..... Metfan does not pay and gets all the info off social networks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 For as much as u burn the guy....ur the one going back for more....fool me once shame on you....fool ne twice shame on me..... Metfan does not pay and gets all the info off social networks I should have just stuck with that-when Irene was on the radar, that's what sucked me in...and then JB sucked on that as well. When August rolls around, I may just quit and get my info from Met fan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I should have just stuck with that-when Irene was on the radar, that's what sucked me in...and then JB sucked on that as well. When August rolls around, I may just quit and get my info from Met fan... Or you can join facebook and get all the information on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Or you can join facebook and get all the information on there I'm on there, but I dont see a link for JB. I don't do twitter so I'd have to rely on you for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 http://www.facebook.com/pages/Joe-Bastardi/160146074041045 I'm on there, but I dont see a link for JB. I don't do twitter so I'd have to rely on you for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 JB says this reminds him of the January storm and is thinking the 2/29 - 3/1 event tracks to the Ohio Valley and then forms a secondary over Lower Del Marva and tracks e/ne under us . IMO we would need cold HP just in the right spot to the north to keep feeding in cold enough air for snow - or for the storm to really bomb out once it hits the coast and create its own dynamically cold air= cold air source I think is the biggest problem with this storm.... http://twitter.com/#...8894848/photo/1 HPC's track is similar to JB's - looks like HP in a good spot on this map - would think there will be over running frozen here to start http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav_pre.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 JB says this reminds him of the January storm and is thinking the 2/29 - 3/1 event tracks to the Ohio Valley and then forms a secondary over Lower Del Marva and tracks e/ne under us . IMO we would need cold HP just in the right spot to the north to keep feeding in cold enough air for snow - or for the storm to really bomb out once it hits the coast and create its own dynamically cold air= cold air source I think is the biggest problem with this storm.... http://twitter.com/#...8894848/photo/1 HPC's track is similar to JB's - looks like HP in a good spot on this map - would think there will be over running frozen here to start http://www.hpc.ncep....ay6nav_pre.html good luck with that. With no cold air, hard to see how we see anything frozen and counting on it to bomb in time to create cold air is really a longshot especially this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 good luck with that. With no cold air, hard to see how we see anything frozen and counting on it to bomb in time to create cold air is really a longshot especially this season. I don't understand how you can make that statement considering we have seen the EURO and its ensembles already give us runs with frozen in the last couple days ............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 good luck with that. With no cold air, hard to see how we see anything frozen and counting on it to bomb in time to create cold air is really a longshot especially this season. I don't understand how you can make that statement considering we have seen the EURO and its ensembles already give us runs with frozen in the last couple days ............. If you're playing the percentages (which, ultimately is what numerical model forecasting and analogs are largely about), Brian is correct. This would be classified as a long shot, and even that may very well be over-doing the chances of this playing out as a snow event in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 If you're playing the percentages (which, ultimately is what numerical model forecasting and anaogs are largely about), Brian is correct. This would be classified as a long shot, and even that may very well be over-doing the chances of this palying out as a snow event in this area. Exactly. Sure the model may show something else, but we're 5-6 days away. How has that worked out this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Exactly. Sure the model may show something else, but we're 5-6 days away. How has that worked out this year? in the world of weather you always have to keep your options open -especially 6 - 7 days out - the people that were naysayers prior to the 10/29 event got burned .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 in the world of weather you always have to keep your options open -especially 6 - 7 days out - the people that were naysayers prior to the 10/29 event got burned .......... Why do you keep harking back to 10/29? That was an INCREDIBLY rare event that will likely not be repeated in our lifetimes. 99.99% of the time, the naysayers in that situation would have been correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 in the world of weather you always have to keep your options open -especially 6 - 7 days out - the people that were naysayers prior to the 10/29 event got burned .......... there was blocking for that event. We have zero blocking now. AO and NAO are strongly positive. How do you see a coastal event with that set up? There's literally no support for it-expect the models to come around to a cutter type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 there was blocking for that event. We have zero blocking now. AO and NAO are strongly positive. How do you see a coastal event with that set up? There's literally no support for it-expect the models to come around to a cutter type solution. Actually, the GFS went away from a cutter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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