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DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk


TheTrials

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First post and good to be here. One question, why the hell do these so called pro mets put out snow maps 4 days in advance on such a shaky storm. im a rookie to this world but to me it kills almost all credibility they have.

It all has to do with $$$ to attract new customers and keep the old ones - each one of these guys has a connection to a paid service........

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First post and good to be here. One question, why the hell do these so called pro mets put out snow maps 4 days in advance on such a shaky storm. im a rookie to this world but to me it kills almost all credibility they have.

Welcome. They want to be the first to have called it. makes sense since they are trying to build their businesses. And typically in a normal winter, the models would have trended towards what they were calling for...in this fail of a winter, the opposite happens. Assuming NYC ends up with zip, JB will have called for 3-6 twice in 7 days and gotten nothing for either event. I cannot recall JB ever busting that bad...

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Welcome. They want to be the first to have called it. makes sense since they are trying to build their businesses. And typically in a normal winter, the models would have trended towards what they were calling for...in this fail of a winter, the opposite happens. Assuming NYC ends up with zip, JB will have called for 3-6 twice in 7 days and gotten nothing for either event. I cannot recall JB ever busting that bad...

That makes sense but when they bust as bad as they are this year i think it sends them backwards if anything. That is one of the main reasons i joined here is because i cant take anything they say seriously.

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One would think. But I don't think it's hurt JB one bit. He continues to gain followers every day and when he says its going to snow people ask when and how much, even if the last 10x he called for snow it did nothing.

That makes sense but when they bust as bad as they are this year i think it sends them backwards if anything. That is one of the main reasons i joined here is because i cant take anything they say seriously.

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Where did you read Cosgrove on this storm?

Facebook. He said this.

There are two factors which support the weekend storm threat taking a 1) farther north track and 2) having greater intensity and warmer thermal array. Check out the GOES WEST full disk and the firehose subtropical jet stream (see http://goe...s.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_sml_png/latest.png) that tapes the equatorial pacific Ocean. This will give the storm (now over the Sonoran Desert) a latitude boost and energize the precipitation potential through added convection and general mTw advection. Also, I noticed that the GFS ensemble group is a shade north with its 500MB disturbance. Bottom line: the big cities get some rain with the snow, but everybody below Portland ME should se something from this storm.

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going to be interteresting how Henry and JB wiggle out of the corner they painted themselves into with their snow maps. Amazing Accuweather puts up with Henry's nonsense - guess every circus needs a clown.....

JB is going to jump off a cliff if Philly and NYC whiffs--I'd say his worst bust in quite some time...

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I don't do maps until maybe 48 hours out unless I'm extremely confident. I can't see how anyone can seriously put out maps at this point, but that's just me.

Yeah, statistically for our region there is more of a chance of being wrong than being correct by doing a snowfall

maps early. The public probably appreciates a more conservative approach until there is enough confidence

to issue a map. I find more people appreciate acknowledging uncertainty when it's warranted vs. trying to

oversell something that doesn't pan out.

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I think Craig is one of the best out there and in my top five alltime TV/Radio weather forecasters...

I agree. I don't listen to weather reports much these days, but when I am in the car and need instant

information I always turn on Craig Allen when he is forecasting.

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