MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Larry Cosgrove likes a further north and warmer track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Larry Cosgrove likes a further north and warmer track. must have been before the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 First post and good to be here. One question, why the hell do these so called pro mets put out snow maps 4 days in advance on such a shaky storm. im a rookie to this world but to me it kills almost all credibility they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 First post and good to be here. One question, why the hell do these so called pro mets put out snow maps 4 days in advance on such a shaky storm. im a rookie to this world but to me it kills almost all credibility they have. It all has to do with $$$ to attract new customers and keep the old ones - each one of these guys has a connection to a paid service........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 First post and good to be here. One question, why the hell do these so called pro mets put out snow maps 4 days in advance on such a shaky storm. im a rookie to this world but to me it kills almost all credibility they have. Welcome. They want to be the first to have called it. makes sense since they are trying to build their businesses. And typically in a normal winter, the models would have trended towards what they were calling for...in this fail of a winter, the opposite happens. Assuming NYC ends up with zip, JB will have called for 3-6 twice in 7 days and gotten nothing for either event. I cannot recall JB ever busting that bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Larry Cosgrove likes a further north and warmer track. you have the link for that ? when and where did he say this - I can't find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 must have been before the 12z runs No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 you have the link for that ? when and where did he say this - I can't find it On Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Give me wind at least if no snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Craig allen has poo-pooed this from the beginning-not over yet, but his call of a whole lotta nothing looking pretty damn good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Welcome. They want to be the first to have called it. makes sense since they are trying to build their businesses. And typically in a normal winter, the models would have trended towards what they were calling for...in this fail of a winter, the opposite happens. Assuming NYC ends up with zip, JB will have called for 3-6 twice in 7 days and gotten nothing for either event. I cannot recall JB ever busting that bad... That makes sense but when they bust as bad as they are this year i think it sends them backwards if anything. That is one of the main reasons i joined here is because i cant take anything they say seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 One would think. But I don't think it's hurt JB one bit. He continues to gain followers every day and when he says its going to snow people ask when and how much, even if the last 10x he called for snow it did nothing. That makes sense but when they bust as bad as they are this year i think it sends them backwards if anything. That is one of the main reasons i joined here is because i cant take anything they say seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Someone tweeted to lee Goldberg new englanders looking for snow can hear the pin drop now lee replied in NY to possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 going to be interteresting how Henry and JB wiggle out of the corner they painted themselves into with their snow maps. Amazing Accuweather puts up with Henry's nonsense - guess every circus needs a clown..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This link was posted by someone in the lakes subforum. A must see. Absolutely hilarious! http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/13058800/weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This link was posted by someone in the lakes subforum. A must see. Absolutely hilarious! http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/13058800/weatherbell LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Where did you read Cosgrove on this storm? Facebook. He said this. There are two factors which support the weekend storm threat taking a 1) farther north track and 2) having greater intensity and warmer thermal array. Check out the GOES WEST full disk and the firehose subtropical jet stream (see http://goe...s.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_sml_png/latest.png) that tapes the equatorial pacific Ocean. This will give the storm (now over the Sonoran Desert) a latitude boost and energize the precipitation potential through added convection and general mTw advection. Also, I noticed that the GFS ensemble group is a shade north with its 500MB disturbance. Bottom line: the big cities get some rain with the snow, but everybody below Portland ME should se something from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Craig allen has poo-pooed this from the beginning-not over yet, but his call of a whole lotta nothing looking pretty damn good right now. Craig Allen is admittedly anti-snow, and forecasts go against snow whenever he can. This comes from him, not from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Craig Allen is admittedly anti-snow, and forecasts go against snow whenever he can. This comes from him, not from me. craig allen is solid..... but i also remember on january 5, 1996 he said you'd have to go to atlantic city to get any decent snow for the blizzard of 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Facebook. He said this. If there was no confluence and uncooperative northern stream, no one's arguing there wouldn't be a huge storm. The question is what degree it gets out of the way so the southern stream can amplify. As of now, the confluence demolishes the storm and forces it to shear out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Craig allen has poo-pooed this from the beginning-not over yet, but his call of a whole lotta nothing looking pretty damn good right now. Craig Allen is OK, not a top level Met though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Craig Allen is OK, not a top level Met though I think Craig is one of the best out there and in my top five alltime TV/Radio weather forecasters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 going to be interteresting how Henry and JB wiggle out of the corner they painted themselves into with their snow maps. Amazing Accuweather puts up with Henry's nonsense - guess every circus needs a clown..... JB is going to jump off a cliff if Philly and NYC whiffs--I'd say his worst bust in quite some time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 DT first guess map actually looks pretty realastic, of course nothing this far north which agrees with all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't do maps until maybe 48 hours out unless I'm extremely confident. I can't see how anyone can seriously put out maps at this point, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 DT first guess map actually looks pretty realastic, of course nothing this far north which agrees with all models. mainly an apps elevation storm which makes sense...hard to see how how dca and bwi get more than some slop on the grass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't do maps until maybe 48 hours out unless I'm extremely confident. I can't see how anyone can seriously put out maps at this point, but that's just me. Yeah, statistically for our region there is more of a chance of being wrong than being correct by doing a snowfall maps early. The public probably appreciates a more conservative approach until there is enough confidence to issue a map. I find more people appreciate acknowledging uncertainty when it's warranted vs. trying to oversell something that doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think Craig is one of the best out there and in my top five alltime TV/Radio weather forecasters... I agree. I don't listen to weather reports much these days, but when I am in the car and need instant information I always turn on Craig Allen when he is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Craig Allen is a fabulous meteorologist. One of the best in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Craig Allen is a very good meteorologist, He is forecasting is very strong 1 to 3 days out. I listen to him on New Radio 880, better than most of NY TV-weather personnel. For TV weather Nick Gregory is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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