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DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk


TheTrials

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Once again like most other events this winter, the writing is on the wall. Very few model runs in the past 3 days have really showed us getting a good snowstorm, even if the occasional run has shown us getting precip and it being cold enough for snow. Again we have no consensus or anything close. Is there time for the models to trend better? Yes. After how this winter has gone is that likely? no way

Well when you can claim victory with a number of solutions, (ie storm too close to coast, we get rain, or storm doesnt phase, no storm at all)....some people in here are no better than the JBs of the world they constantly talk about.

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nonsense. you made no such claim about the "gfs solution".

the whole Cosgrove thing came from the discussion of the GFS run at 12z...if you can't see that then I dont know what to say.

IMO-it's going to be hard for the coast to get snow-there's zippo cold air-so we'd have to thread the needle perfectly here. and in this crappy winter, the Euro solution would not surprise me one bit.

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the whole Cosgrove thing came from the discussion of the GFS run at 12z...if you can't see that then I dont know what to say.

IMO-it's going to be hard for the coast to get snow-there's zippo cold air-so we'd have to thread the needle perfectly here. and in this crappy winter, the Euro solution would not surprise me one bit.

So either way, if we dont get snow, you can claim you saw it beforehand. Cool.

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JB-GFS not right nor is the Euro-likely somewhere in b/w-likes a track from New Orleans to Norfolk to Nantucket...does mention that big interior snows are a LaNina favorite when there is October snow...

Says lakes cutter for the storm that follows.

You like to post anything negative

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JB-GFS not right nor is the Euro-likely somewhere in b/w-likes a track from New Orleans to Norfolk to Nantucket...does mention that big interior snows are a LaNina favorite when there is October snow...

Says lakes cutter for the storm that follows.

with enough cold air that normally would be a good track in february - but the cold air is not here - we are averaging 39.5 degrees in NYC this month so far - tied for 4th warmest February on record

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with enough cold air that normally would be a good track in february - but the cold air is not here - we are averaging 39.5 degrees in NYC this month so far - tied for 4th warmest February on record

the antecedant airmass for this is putrid...we get a little cooler air after the storm goes to our NW tomorrow night, but there's no arctic air anywhere. We'll need a perfect track to get the dynamically cooled air, ala 10/29/11 storm which did exactly that for most.

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DT

*** ALERT WEATHER DISCUSSION - 0Z 16 FEB EUROPEAN MODEL RIN *** New 0z euro is coming in with a LARGE MUCH MUCH MUCH WETTER storm... the Upper air feature in the southern jet stream develops NEGATIVE TILT -- wow... which is thing Meteorologists looks look that tells us a MAJOR LOW is forming

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The good news is DiMartino is not on board, says it's going to rain......we can pretty much lock in a solid snow event!

From Twitter

"The models are in much stronger agreement with an unphased solution and RAIN for much of the region on Sunday morning."

did he use his "physics" to come to that conclusion ? Very unlikely it will be plain rain unless you are standing on the beach in ocean county or central eastern LI in fact in these setups go a couple miles in land would be snow/mix - Looks like right now if the precip does reach here we will be on the fringe and in this setup would be mainly snow - could be some mix at the start especially

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did he use his "physics" to come to that conclusion ? Very unlikely it will be plain rain unless you are standing on the beach in ocean county or central eastern LI in fact in these setups go a couple miles in land would be snow/mix - Looks like right now if the precip does reach here we will be on the fringe and in this setup would be mainly snow - could be some mix at the start especially

I guess making declarative statements this far out is risky, but he's usually strongly one way or the other....I suspect he'll fail with his call if he sticks with it, but frankly he is used as an ensemble member like all the other "public" mets that we love to chirp about.....

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Steve d clients going at him on twitter saying you always find away to say snow, so you're saying hpc and NOAA saying snow is a possibility is wrong, he said show me how it can snow at 40 lol wouldn't his physics answer be dynamic cooling?

Well they'd be wrong this year. Steve has been against snow for virtually every system, even the snow event we did have he was on the lower end of guidance.

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I do see steve d's point....

-

IMO if you are outside of the heaviest stuff-it's light rain or non sticking snow. No cold air at all here-upton has us at 47 for the day before the storm and ocean water temps are running above normal due to the warm winter...reminds me of a certain bust back in Jan 08 where were were suppposed to get heavy wet snow and the verification was mainly rain and a slushy inch the next morning.

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Steve d clients going at him on twitter saying you always find away to say snow, so you're saying hpc and NOAA saying snow is a possibility is wrong, he said show me how it can snow at 40 lol wouldn't his physics answer be dynamic cooling?

He made the same mistake back in October the morning of the 29th just before it all changed to snow - talk about taking a chance in repeating mistakes...............

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