BxEngine Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Once again like most other events this winter, the writing is on the wall. Very few model runs in the past 3 days have really showed us getting a good snowstorm, even if the occasional run has shown us getting precip and it being cold enough for snow. Again we have no consensus or anything close. Is there time for the models to trend better? Yes. After how this winter has gone is that likely? no way Well when you can claim victory with a number of solutions, (ie storm too close to coast, we get rain, or storm doesnt phase, no storm at all)....some people in here are no better than the JBs of the world they constantly talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 nonsense. you made no such claim about the "gfs solution". the whole Cosgrove thing came from the discussion of the GFS run at 12z...if you can't see that then I dont know what to say. IMO-it's going to be hard for the coast to get snow-there's zippo cold air-so we'd have to thread the needle perfectly here. and in this crappy winter, the Euro solution would not surprise me one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the whole Cosgrove thing came from the discussion of the GFS run at 12z...if you can't see that then I dont know what to say. IMO-it's going to be hard for the coast to get snow-there's zippo cold air-so we'd have to thread the needle perfectly here. and in this crappy winter, the Euro solution would not surprise me one bit. So either way, if we dont get snow, you can claim you saw it beforehand. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So either way, if we dont get snow, you can claim you saw it beforehand. Cool. Didn't say that at all. I won't be claiming victory if we don't snow, I can guarantee you that. All I was doing was commenting on the 12z GFS and 12z Euro-nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 JB-GFS not right nor is the Euro-likely somewhere in b/w-likes a track from New Orleans to Norfolk to Nantucket...does mention that big interior snows are a LaNina favorite when there is October snow... Says lakes cutter for the storm that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 JB-GFS not right nor is the Euro-likely somewhere in b/w-likes a track from New Orleans to Norfolk to Nantucket...does mention that big interior snows are a LaNina favorite when there is October snow... Says lakes cutter for the storm that follows. You like to post anything negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 JB-GFS not right nor is the Euro-likely somewhere in b/w-likes a track from New Orleans to Norfolk to Nantucket...does mention that big interior snows are a LaNina favorite when there is October snow... Says lakes cutter for the storm that follows. with enough cold air that normally would be a good track in february - but the cold air is not here - we are averaging 39.5 degrees in NYC this month so far - tied for 4th warmest February on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You like to post anything negative just recaping JB's latest thoughts, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 with enough cold air that normally would be a good track in february - but the cold air is not here - we are averaging 39.5 degrees in NYC this month so far - tied for 4th warmest February on record the antecedant airmass for this is putrid...we get a little cooler air after the storm goes to our NW tomorrow night, but there's no arctic air anywhere. We'll need a perfect track to get the dynamically cooled air, ala 10/29/11 storm which did exactly that for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And the Euro has been good this winter? you're really off your game. it's been 5 whole minutes since bastardi tweeted the storm would be at 40/70 monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 you're really off your game. it's been 5 whole minutes since bastardi tweeted the storm would be at 40/70 monday. I was out to lunch. Couldn't post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB says to wait until Friday-model mayhem until then...he still likes compromise solution up the east coast with 3-6 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB says to wait until Friday-model mayhem until then...he still likes compromise solution up the east coast with 3-6 for most That actually sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 DT *** ALERT WEATHER DISCUSSION - 0Z 16 FEB EUROPEAN MODEL RIN *** New 0z euro is coming in with a LARGE MUCH MUCH MUCH WETTER storm... the Upper air feature in the southern jet stream develops NEGATIVE TILT -- wow... which is thing Meteorologists looks look that tells us a MAJOR LOW is forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB is still liking a benchmark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Rob G is liking what he sees- its too bad he and his "'amazing" mets are usually wrong http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=960&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The good news is DiMartino is not on board, says it's going to rain......we can pretty much lock in a solid snow event! From Twitter "The models are in much stronger agreement with an unphased solution and RAIN for much of the region on Sunday morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The good news is DiMartino is not on board, says it's going to rain......we can pretty much lock in a solid snow event! From Twitter "The models are in much stronger agreement with an unphased solution and RAIN for much of the region on Sunday morning." did he use his "physics" to come to that conclusion ? Very unlikely it will be plain rain unless you are standing on the beach in ocean county or central eastern LI in fact in these setups go a couple miles in land would be snow/mix - Looks like right now if the precip does reach here we will be on the fringe and in this setup would be mainly snow - could be some mix at the start especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 did he use his "physics" to come to that conclusion ? Very unlikely it will be plain rain unless you are standing on the beach in ocean county or central eastern LI in fact in these setups go a couple miles in land would be snow/mix - Looks like right now if the precip does reach here we will be on the fringe and in this setup would be mainly snow - could be some mix at the start especially I guess making declarative statements this far out is risky, but he's usually strongly one way or the other....I suspect he'll fail with his call if he sticks with it, but frankly he is used as an ensemble member like all the other "public" mets that we love to chirp about..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB's first map is out...3-6 inches for most--best snows S and W of NYC where up to 6 inches may fall...he may shift north by 50-75 miles.... Rain south of DC and not much north of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB's first map is out...3-6 inches for most--best snows S and W of NYC where up to 6 inches may fall...he may shift north by 50-75 miles.... Rain south of DC and not much north of Boston I don't see it on twitter - do you have a link ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Steve d clients going at him on twitter saying you always find away to say snow, so you're saying hpc and NOAA saying snow is a possibility is wrong, he said show me how it can snow at 40 lol wouldn't his physics answer be dynamic cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Steve d clients going at him on twitter saying you always find away to say snow, so you're saying hpc and NOAA saying snow is a possibility is wrong, he said show me how it can snow at 40 lol wouldn't his physics answer be dynamic cooling? Well they'd be wrong this year. Steve has been against snow for virtually every system, even the snow event we did have he was on the lower end of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I do see steve d's point.... - IMO if you are outside of the heaviest stuff-it's light rain or non sticking snow. No cold air at all here-upton has us at 47 for the day before the storm and ocean water temps are running above normal due to the warm winter...reminds me of a certain bust back in Jan 08 where were were suppposed to get heavy wet snow and the verification was mainly rain and a slushy inch the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Steve d clients going at him on twitter saying you always find away to say snow, so you're saying hpc and NOAA saying snow is a possibility is wrong, he said show me how it can snow at 40 lol wouldn't his physics answer be dynamic cooling? He made the same mistake back in October the morning of the 29th just before it all changed to snow - talk about taking a chance in repeating mistakes............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 He made the same mistake back in October the morning of the 29th just before it all changed to snow - talk about repeating mistakes............... He's the Rex Ryan jinx of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't see it on twitter - do you have a link ? it's on his pay site, Weatherbell.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it's on his pay site, Weatherbell.com no comment -but do you think you are getting your money's worth ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB is still going with a bm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB is still going with a bm track. When isn't he, he does from hurricanes to blizzards all up the east coast in his eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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