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DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk


TheTrials

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He gets 17 bucks a month from new suckers every time he tweets crap like that. Wouldn't you do the same thing.

I wouldn't do the same thing and also

can't believe his last tweet was this one - total BS

Joe Bastardi

"

Severe cold for season likely last week of Feb for much of nation, centered in the plains"

6 hours ago

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I wouldn't do the same thing and also

can't believe his last tweet was this one - total BS

Joe Bastardi

"

Severe cold for season likely last week of Feb for much of nation, centered in the plains"

6 hours ago

you would think he would learn--he's been calling for cold since Mid November--it has yet to show up...guess he's giving it one final chance before he tosses in the towel and starts hyping hurricanes.

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Is he ever held accountable for all this stuff? He has become a total joke. It is like 2001 all over again.

JB, like any other forecaster in the business, is ultimately accountable. If he fails too often, his clients will look for alternative forecasts. Revenue to WeatherBell, not to mention the share of revenue that flows to JB, would decline.

Recognizing the uncertainty and risk inherent in forecasting, JB has probably tried to diversify his income stream. Subscriptions generate a share of revenue. For all one knows, subscribers might be "buying" JB's forecasts, not only for accuracy, but also for emotional reasons. For example, a share of subscribers might find value in his pointing out hopeful scenarios, even if such scenarios are low probability outcomes. His increasing commentary on the climate change issue might also reflect a bid to develop or grow a revenue stream from the share of the market that takes a contrarian position on climate change. It might also contribute to his gaining exposure on media outlets serving audiences that have an interest in the contrarian position on climate e.g., Fox Business Network. More exposure can enhance JB's marketing reach and, if he can monetize that exposure, that means more revenue for WeatherBell and JB.

Finally, even outstanding forecasters can have bad periods. Performance varies. La Niña winters can be particularly challenging due to the fast flow.

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JB, like any other forecaster in the business, is ultimately accountable. If he fails too often, his clients will look for alternative forecasts. Revenue to WeatherBell, not to mention the share of revenue that flows to JB, would decline.

Recognizing the uncertainty and risk inherent in forecasting, JB has probably tried to diversify his income stream. Subscriptions generate a share of revenue. For all one knows, subscribers might be "buying" JB's forecasts, not only for accuracy, but also for emotional reasons. For example, a share of subscribers might find value in his pointing out hopeful scenarios, even if such scenarios are low probability outcomes. His increasing commentary on the climate change issue might also reflect a bid to develop or grow a revenue stream from the share of the market that takes a contrarian position on climate change. It might also contribute to his gaining exposure on media outlets serving audiences that have an interest in the contrarian position on climate e.g., Fox Business Network. More exposure can enhance JB's marketing reach and, if he can monetize that exposure, that means more revenue for WeatherBell and JB.

Finally, even outstanding forecasters can have bad periods. Performance varies. La Niña winters can be particularly challenging due to the fast flow.

his commentary on the climate issues is pure speculation - there is 2 sides at least to that story

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his commentary on the climate issues is pure speculation - there is 2 sides at least to that story

Pure speculation??? All you have to do is use past records, actual facts and what's really going on globally, add climate gate and the rest is history. Follow the money. Trillions at stake in junk science.

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his commentary on the climate issues is pure speculation - there is 2 sides at least to that story

I agree, with respect to the issue of scientific merit (actually, very limited scientific merit of his position) of his climate change arguments. He isn't seeking to further the science/scientific understanding so to speak. If he were, he'd be pursuing the venues utilized by the scientists e.g., peer-reviewed journals.

Instead, he's seeking to appeal to an audience with interests that are aligned with a contrarian position. Until public understanding and acceptance of the scientific basis is sufficiently great, that audience will face few opportunity costs from maximizing its interests despite the externalities involved. And, in such a case, opportunities to monetize that situation will exist.

In short, economic incentives exist, as does accountability. Sometimes economic and scientific interests are not aligned.

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I agree, with respect to the scientific merit (actually, very limited scientific merit) of his climate change arguments. He isn't seeking to further the science/scientific understanding so to speak. If he were, he'd be pursuing the venues utilized by the scientists e.g., peer-reviewed journals.

Instead, he's seeking to appeal to an audience with interests that are aligned with a contrarian position. Until public understanding and acceptance of the scientific basis is sufficiently great, that audience will face few opportunity costs from maximizing its interests despite the externalities involved. And, in such a case, opportunities to monetize that situation will exist.

In short, economic incentives exist, as does accountability. Sometimes economic and scientific interests are not aligned.

Since nobody caught on to "global warming" they changed it to "climate change" but that too didnt work, so now the new word is called "climate disruption" please make sure you use the updated version= "climate disruption" ... Thank you.

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JB, like any other forecaster in the business, is ultimately accountable. If he fails too often, his clients will look for alternative forecasts. Revenue to WeatherBell, not to mention the share of revenue that flows to JB, would decline.

Recognizing the uncertainty and risk inherent in forecasting, JB has probably tried to diversify his income stream. Subscriptions generate a share of revenue. For all one knows, subscribers might be "buying" JB's forecasts, not only for accuracy, but also for emotional reasons. For example, a share of subscribers might find value in his pointing out hopeful scenarios, even if such scenarios are low probability outcomes. His increasing commentary on the climate change issue might also reflect a bid to develop or grow a revenue stream from the share of the market that takes a contrarian position on climate change. It might also contribute to his gaining exposure on media outlets serving audiences that have an interest in the contrarian position on climate e.g., Fox Business Network. More exposure can enhance JB's marketing reach and, if he can monetize that exposure, that means more revenue for WeatherBell and JB.

Finally, even outstanding forecasters can have bad periods. Performance varies. La Niña winters can be particularly challenging due to the fast flow.

Trying to be completely impartial and fair. From having read much of what JB has written, commented on, and forecasted for years, his forecasts have become off-the-chart awful and woefully inaccurate, both for individual events as well as long term. This may not sit well with a loyal fan base (yes, that he has) who will take exception with anything negative said about him. However, the forecasts, specualtion, and narratives are all there for the world to see. That's the beauty of technology -- it's impossible to run away from things written and posted in our technolgy-based culture, as much as one would like to do so. I don't know what's the deal with him. It cannot all be driven by a desire to pull in subscriptions by going for the extreme because, as you said, if you fail too often, it comes with a price. I think he's reached the tipping point where his forecasts are so bad that he is fast becoming or has become irrelevant. This is not merely about forecast busting as we all know it's an inexact science and busts are a part of it. This is about forecasts and comments that go against the grain and against the known scientific tools upon which forecasting is based. Frankly, it's bizzare.

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Yeah it's hard to tell if its luck or hype or what. In other words 10 years ago he busted big time, calling for cold and snow which never came. The following winter he called for cold and snow again but this time he was right. He used to be good at calling out storms pretty far out, for example the 12/03 storm which most models were showing as rain he was insisting would be snow for NYC even 5 days out. He also called for the flip in 04-05 to a colder snowier 2nd half of winter, again he nailed it. The problem is that last year he missed a couple events and then nailed a few, but when he keeps calling for pattern changes and snowy/cold periods, well in some winters he will be right and others, like this year he will be very wrong. The problem is he doesn't stop or back down. He just keeps picking out models that are showing a change to colder weather in the offing and sticks to them until they flip back to warm. At this point after 2/3 months of constantly hyping I can't believe he has any followers left.

Now next year if we do end up in a nino and get a snowy/cold winter, which of course he will hype, he'll look like a genius again.

Trying to be completely impartial and fair. From having read much of what JB has written, commented on, and forecasted for years, his forecasts have become off-the-chart awful and woefully inaccurate, both for individual events as well as long term. This may not sit well with a loyal fan base (yes, that he has) who will take exception with anything negative said about him. However, the forecasts, specualtion, and narratives are all there for the world to see. That's the beauty of technology -- it's impossible to run away from things written and posted in our technolgy-based culture, as much as one would like to do so. I don't know what's the deal with him. It cannot all be driven by a desire to pull in subscriptions by going for the extreme because, as you said, if you fail too often, it comes with a price. I think he's reached the tipping point where his forecasts are so bad that he is fast becoming or has become irrelevant. This is not merely about forecast busting as we all know it's an inexact science and busts are a part of it. This is about forecasts and comments that go against the grain and against the known scientific tools upon which forecasting is based. Frankly, it's bizzare.

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now tolleris is going at with cosgrove lol\

*** ALERT **8 ALERT ** IGNORE THE 12Z GFS RUN ... AGAIN ** its way inland and has rain into NYC.... Like · Comment · 9 minutes ago ·


  • Robert Ivey Clark, Kevin Tucker and 2 others like this.




    • 368926_100003205024132_443636254_q.jpg
      Evan Blatt I am hoping,any shot of accumulating snow going into NYC?
      about a minute ago

    • 372501_615925234_1510040445_q.jpg
      Larry Cosgrove Dissenting opinion here. Don't ignore the run...model has been trending north and west because it utilizes shortwave digging through the Midwest and linking with Mexican low. I favor track from Corpus Christi TX....Warner Robins GA....Norfolk VA....Nantucket MA. Rain ending as snow for the big cities above Richmond VA.
      about a minute ago

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Cosgrove is likely right here--with no cold air and east winds bringing in warmer than usual maritime air (since SST's are running above normal) have a hard time seeing this not be rain for the I95 club--even JB says as much

you are right but tolleris has a hard time admitting he might be wrong and then he starts getting nasty - just a matter of time before he blasts cosgrove and then you won't see him posting on the dt forum anymore .

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In a completely different solution on how it wont work out than what you just posted about 2 posts up. You are unreal.

Not really--I simply stated that if the GFS solution was to verify, then it's likely a rainer for most coastal locales (as Cosgrove notes as well). I then note that the Euro has no precip whatsoever. What's wrong with that?

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Not really--I simply stated that if the GFS solution was to verify, then it's likely a rainer for most coastal locales (as Cosgrove notes as well). I then note that the Euro has no precip whatsoever. What's wrong with that?

nonsense. you made no such claim about the "gfs solution".

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Once again like most other events this winter, the writing is on the wall. Very few model runs in the past 3 days have really showed us getting a good snowstorm, even if the occasional run has shown us getting precip and it being cold enough for snow. Again we have no consensus or anything close. Is there time for the models to trend better? Yes. After how this winter has gone is that likely? no way

It's too early to think that

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