pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Its pretty clear the conversation revolved around snow, considering the comments about snow totals and depth. Everyone here understands March is not a midwinter month. Yes, and the chances of any given March going forward having a significant amount of snow are extremely low. It not being a midwinter month AND the fact that for the past couple decades March has not seen much in the way of significant snow both lend support to that view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yes, and the chances of any given March going forward having a significant amount of snow are extremely low. It not being a midwinter month AND the fact that for the past couple decades March has not seen much in the way of significant snow both lend support to that view. So his argument is "maybe we'll see a return to winters of the past when March contained some significant snows", and your argument in return is, "we wont see a return to that, because it hasnt returned to it yet". Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The phrase in question was "see winter in [March]." I interpret that as seeing some extended period of wintery conditions (e.g. days averaging below freezing). One event doesn't constitute a return to winter, so the Oct storm, as ridiculous, once in 100 years anomalous as it was, doesn't either. Are you suggesting October was a winter month in 2011? Now ur back peddling to fast for ur own good pazzo....u originally refer to my post as William and i calling for a brutal march....which showed in ur post about the winter long range....now im calling for a ice age in march....if u spin it enough, it might make u sleep at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Now ur back peddling to fast for ur own good pazzo....u originally refer to my post as William and i calling for a brutal march....which showed in ur post about the winter long range....now im calling for a ice age in march....if u spin it enough, it might make u sleep at night. LMAO, significant snow to you means an ice age? Where did I ever use the word "brutal"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 So his argument is "maybe we'll see a return to winters of the past when March contained some significant snows", and your argument in return is, "we wont see a return to that, because it hasnt returned to it yet". Interesting. Nope not in 30 years.....way better stands he has then law of averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 So his argument is "maybe we'll see a return to winters of the past when March contained some significant snows", and your argument in return is, "we wont see a return to that, because it hasnt returned to it yet". Interesting. Yes, it is called climatology. If March weather has trended to less snowy/less wintery over the past 30 years, you'd have more support of that trend continuing than it reversing without providing some concrete reasoning as to WHY the trend would reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yes, it is called climatology. If March weather has trended to less snowy/less wintery over the past 30 years, you'd have more support of that trend continuing than it reversing without providing some concrete reasoning as to WHY the trend would reverse. More support != 0% chance....and a few decent March storms != trend reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 More support != 0% chance....and a few decent March storms != trend reversal. Not sure I follow... I'm exactly arguing that despite a few anomalous March storms (like 93), there hasn't been real winter in March for quite some time. There is no reason to suggest that such a trend would not continue in the future. Could we see a big storm in any given March in the future? Sure, but the probability is extremely low. Suggesting it was 0 was hyperbole on my part. Certainly there is a chance, but it is quite negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 storm is alive and well just not near I-95 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT*** 12Z GFS brings up SIGNIFICANT east coast low FEB 11-12 ...so theDT storm is alive and well. Temps appear cold for snow for western half NC and much of VA. The models does have the low kind of far off the coast..but at 132 and 144 hours...that is not that important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not sure I follow... I'm exactly arguing that despite a few anomalous March storms (like 93), there hasn't been real winter in March for quite some time. There is no reason to suggest that such a trend would not continue in the future. Could we see a big storm in any given March in the future? Sure, but the probability is extremely low. Suggesting it was 0 was hyperbole on my part. Certainly there is a chance, but it is quite negligible. One decent March wouldnt necessarily equal a reversal of the trend (just like below average months arent a reversal of global warming (not in the political sense, lets NOT go there )), allsnow wasnt calling for March to do a 180 from the 30 year average, just that maybe one of these years bucks the trend. It probably will happen, whether it be this year, next, or when the gulf stream shuts off and we all have to move to the equator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 gotta love this comment - DT calling JB delusional many of you may have been getting JB ( not Justin berk the other guy) twitter posts where he is touting a severe cold air outbreak like 1985. That sort of forecast is delusional. 21 minutes ago · 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It is delusional. JB continues to forecast a pattern change that never comes...another week of 50's and then 40's for us...how is that any different from the status quo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Talking about delusional when you look the word up in the dictionary - this appears http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/light-snow-wednesday-maybe-stormy-by-midmonth/61227 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The GFS Barometer http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The GFS Barometer http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Am I missing something? All I see when you post that link is a blog which hasn't been updated in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Am I missing something? All I see when you post that link is a blog which hasn't been updated in a long time. He might be looking at the snow totals lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Am I missing something? All I see when you post that link is a blog which hasn't been updated in a long time. i am assuming thats what he`s look at . A forecast made back on Dec 6 Currently *future* dates to watch for the threat of significant wintry precipitation are: 2/11-2/12, 2/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Dec 2 - correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Yeah, but December 6th 2010... no relevence to the current time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Yeah, but December 6th 2010... no relevence to the current time period. it`s there mate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 We are looking at a possible event this weekend no ? feb 11 - 12 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 it`s there mate . Hmmm... weird. Why does the post list a date of 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Post dates are old..but updates are new. Look at the topmost post by him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Hmmm... weird. Why does the post list a date of 2009? True .i am only guessing that was the reasoning . I think there are 2 snow events on the way before the weekend is out , and after what this winter has yielded its welcomed , no matter how marginal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Am I missing something? All I see when you post that link is a blog which hasn't been updated in a long time. yes you are missing something here read it again - here is what you missed in it he just updated today at noon Posted by Wxoutlooks at 1:13 AM 0 comments <a href="http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/2009/12/1230912am-nyc-metro-region-8-day.html">NYC METRO REGION 2/6/12@12:10PM--WINTER 2011-2012.. **SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION DATES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 ^^^ He puts that out to warn people that a snow is possible on those dates. It doesn't mean that it will happen. I see nothing wrong on his page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 ^^^ He puts that out to warn people that a snow is possible on those dates. It doesn't mean that it will happen. I see nothing wrong on his page. does everything go over your head ? Hint : next time watch the latest GFS and watch the update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 does everything go over your head ? Hint : next time watch the latest GFS and watch the update No because I have followed him for many years. I know what he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 JB on Twitter US asking where is winter... winter about to give an answer and may lead to this question later: Where is Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 JB on Twitter The "where is spring" question has already been answered: Right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.