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DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk


TheTrials

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Ewr had over 11" on 1/22/87....Id be willing to guess that between 2/83 and 1/87 nyc/ewr had no 'heavy snow' obs reports...I could be wrong but I just can't think of one time it really snowed heavily ...plus all the event were in the 3 to 6 range...same goes for 87-88 and 88-89

You probably slept through 3/8-9/1984. EWR was down to 1/8SM with +TSSN at 6AM on 3/9.

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I've always said the no 8 inch storm at Central Park from 84-92 or whatever it was should not be in existence. Either someone measured incorrectly that day or they just got extremely unlucky due to 2 megabands either side of them. Even JFK which changed over 2 hours earlier than NYC saw 7 inches which is what Central Park reported. LGA/EWR both had 11 and 13 inches respectively I think. I clearly remember it started snowing about 10am and by 2pm there was easily 7-8 inches already in northern Queens. The forecast was 2-4 and changing to rain I think.

Edit...this was 1/22/87, but same effect really...I think SW NJ saw 10-14 in that too.

http://www.meteo.psu...1987/us0223.php

Sort of looks like 12/19/09 in that the 850 and 700 lows do not take good tracks for NYC.

So close and yet so far...

post-39-0-81090400-1328187390.jpg

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JB is headed for a collossal bust on his Fab Feb call...how about Fail Feb?

agree 100 %- there is actually no snowstorms in site this morning - first 10 days of feb at least are going to average out way above normal temps and normal to slightly below precip with no snow in NYC metro - feb 11 - 15 is looking less likely for any frozen precip today........

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agree 100 %- there is actually no snowstorms in site this morning - first 10 days of feb at least are going to average out way above normal temps and normal to slightly below precip with no snow in NYC metro - feb 11 - 15 is looking less likely for any frozen precip today........

It is Feb 2 and you are declaring 2/11-2/14 as dead? For some perspective, that is OVER 10 DAYS FROM NOW.

The 6z GFS, as one example, showed a near miss for a snowstorm on 2/10. A 1040 high a bit too far west with a low bombing out a bit too close to the coast. Again on 2/12, it shows another near miss.

Please step away from the keyboard.

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Well I was 9 and lived in central/south jersey at the time so I can't say I recall that one specifically. It also seemed like every time it snowed back then it would overnight and school would be closed the next day. The cool thing with the 1/22/87 event is it started around 9am and only lasted around 7 hours but snowed 1 to 2" an hour almost the whole time with a little sleet on top before ending as some light snow.

You probably slept through 3/8-9/1984. EWR was down to 1/8SM with +TSSN at 6AM on 3/9.

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agree 100 %- there is actually no snowstorms in site this morning - first 10 days of feb at least are going to average out way above normal temps and normal to slightly below precip with no snow in NYC metro - feb 11 - 15 is looking less likely for any frozen precip today........

weenie

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It is Feb 2 and you are declaring 2/11-2/14 as dead? For some perspective, that is OVER 10 DAYS FROM NOW.

The 6z GFS, as one example, showed a near miss for a snowstorm on 2/10. A 1040 high a bit too far west with a low bombing out a bit too close to the coast. Again on 2/12, it shows another near miss.

Please step away from the keyboard.

LOL - the gfs has been wrong all winter and you are relying on a 6z gfs 10 days out ? Even JB last night threw in the towel and said the euro will win and it warms up in 10 days

I am staying right near the keyboard buddy to show you how wrong you are about 2/11 - 2/14.

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Take a look at Europe! Forecasts weeks ago were for a warm Feb. well people are dieing do to the extreme cold. Up to 90 now dead and climbing. Where were the models on this 2 weeks ago?

One of the big reasons I do not expect the kind of notable and persistent cold in Europe to show up in North America leading to a dramatic flip/cold February in North America is that the composites constructed showing a warm North America also show a cold Europe. I ran the data for more than North America to help identify possible indications that things might be going wrong. Here's the comparison of the temperature anomalies:

EuroFeb2012.jpg

The dates used in the composites were finalized on 1/23, the day on which I posted my February thoughts for North America. The same dates yielded starkly different outcomes for North America and Europe for the monthly temperature anomalies.

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The 0z,6z GFS/GEFS would still support the major winter storm threat Feb 11-13th. But I don't believe the 0z ECMWF/ECENS solutions would. The pacific jet is crashing into West Coast, knocking the ridge to the east again. Forcing another low to cutoff over the Baja or the Southwest US. .

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It is Feb 2 and you are declaring 2/11-2/14 as dead? For some perspective, that is OVER 10 DAYS FROM NOW.

The 6z GFS, as one example, showed a near miss for a snowstorm on 2/10. A 1040 high a bit too far west with a low bombing out a bit too close to the coast. Again on 2/12, it shows another near miss.

Please step away from the keyboard.

In a winter where nothing has gone right, it's not a bad call. I'm still on board with a shutout for Feb snowfall for NYC. We torch starting around 2/12-13, so if we don't have anything by then, it's going to be tough to get it.

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Back on topic-JB has a huge post about his winter bust and his bust on this phantom pattern change...you almost want to feel sorry for the guy,(he busted twice on Feb-had a torch in his winter forecast and then went cold/snowy a couple of weeks ago) but this winter has fooled the best. We all know now, don't trust any indication of a pattern change b/c its' just not happening...we have to hope for some fluke storm like we got in January....

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Yeah alot of people learned their lesson the hard way. Doesn't matter if you've been doing this for 3 years or 33 years you're going to get fooled from time to time. I don't even see it as eating crow or even admitting failure, but its best to not assume something is coming just because it happened that way in the past.

Back on topic-JB has a huge post about his winter bust and his bust on this phantom pattern change...you almost want to feel sorry for the guy,(he busted twice on Feb-had a torch in his winter forecast and then went cold/snowy a couple of weeks ago) but this winter has fooled the best. We all know now, don't trust any indication of a pattern change b/c its' just not happening...we have to hope for some fluke storm like we got in January....

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Yeah alot of people learned their lesson the hard way. Doesn't matter if you've been doing this for 3 years or 33 years you're going to get fooled from time to time. I don't even see it as eating crow or even admitting failure, but its best to not assume something is coming just because it happened that way in the past.

It's not over yet. No reason for JB to admit failure until mid-Feb if the models don't have a change by then.

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Yeah alot of people learned their lesson the hard way. Doesn't matter if you've been doing this for 3 years or 33 years you're going to get fooled from time to time.

I agree. Long-range forecasting is inherently difficult. A combination of knowledge limitations (much research remains to be done) and the role of chaos leaves a lot of uncertainty. Anyone who tries to forecast in the longer-range will have his or her share of errors.

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I agree. Long-range forecasting is inherently difficult. A combination of knowledge limitations (much research remains to be done) and the role of chaos leaves a lot of uncertainty. Anyone who tries to forecast in the longer-range will have his or her share of errors.

Don, you have done an excellent job this winter. Kudos.

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Yes 1956 is a decent analog.

Problem is, we can find an analog that fits almost any pattern...there's alway an analog out there that delivered the goods...doesn't mean that it's going to this year....sure can hope so though. This is depressing...at least we dont have to worry about melting snowpack this year... :axe:

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Completely untrue...and I was there...here is some data from the local cooperative at Westbury in Nassau County during the 1980's....

Westbury Annual Snowfall:

1980-81: 22.7"

1981-82: 27.5"

1982-83: 31.4"

1983-84: 30.4"

1984-85: 28.8"

1985-86: 16.5"

1986-87: 33.4"

1987-88: 24.4"

1988-89: 15.8"

1989-90: 23.5"

Mean: 25.44"

Westbury Notable Snowstorms:

1/7/81: 6.9"

3/5/81: 10.4"

1/14/82: 8.1"

4/6/82: 8.8"

12/12/82: 5.7"

2/12/83: 16.5"

1/11/84: 4.7"

1/18/84: 5.7"

3/9/84: 7.0"

12/27/84: 6.8"

1/17/85: 5.5"

2/6/85: 4.9"

2/8/86: 4.0"

2/11/86: 4.1"

1/23/87: 8.2"

1/26/87: 4.6"

2/23/87: 4.8"

1/4/88: 7.1"

1/9/88: 6.8"

12/13/88: 3.7"

1/6/89: 6.2"

11/23/89: 7.2"

2/25/90: 4.4"

Mean Annual Snowfall (1980-81 - 1989-90)

Westbury: 25.44"

Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX: 25.41"

LaGuardia Airport: 21.66"

John F Kennedy Airport: 20.28"

Central Park: 19.74"

Since I've moved out to Port Jeferson, I've often commented on how snowy the 2001 - 2010 period had been at the nearby Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX. But the above record clearly shows that during the 1980's Westbury and Upton OKX, were in a virtual dead heat for mean annual snowfall.

November and April Snow Events At Westbury

11/17/80: 0.2"

4/6/82: 8.8"

4/19/83: 1.4"

11/19/86: 1.7"

11/11/87: 1.1"

11/23/89: 7.2"

4/7/90: 2.6"

It also got quite cold in Westbury during the 1980's. On 10 separate days the mercury dipped to zero Farenheit or below:

12/25/80: -1

1/9/81: 0

1/12/81: -1

1/17/82: -5

1/18/82: -7

1/21/84: -3

1/22/84: -5

1/21/85: -4

1/11/88: 0

1/15/88: -1

Idk why he is even talking about the 70's and 80's....he was not even born yet....best thing this winter was him being added ti my ignore list

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So now a 3 to 5 day cold period on the Euro and then mild to very mild at other times is a huge flip on the Euro per Bastardi? Oh brother, he has really lost it. I'm sure he'll reference a 5 day cold snap out of three winter months with insanely above average temps and somehow twist that into a verification of the cold / snowy pattern he's been calling for. What a joke.

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