TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 not impressed with the lift through 12z, VVs not nearly as impressive as the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 nam sim looks like crap, just being honest here folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 it was sarcasm... I understand how this a rare occasion were it could and is modeled to happen as this is not your typical coastal low situation (thats why i thought you were serious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 through 15z, 850 and surface but below freezing for the area, lift improves but is starting to move east, back edge approaching. its a colder run for sure, but I think we lost some punch with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Give me a break. nearly 25 dBZ snow is fine. nam sim looks like crap, just being honest here folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 00z NAM appears to be a tick cooler than the 18z NAM, and the Low is further south than the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 through 15z, 850 and surface but below freezing for the area, lift improves but is starting to move east, back edge approaching. its a colder run for sure, but I think we lost some punch with this run. absolutely not sure what others are seeing but this run cuts back on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 EAST so explain to me how Long Beach changes before Montauk? Sort of depends on how the cold air is wedging...if a storm is offshore...a consistent easterly flow would likely change Montauk over first...but with the storm approaching from the west and a cold high to the northeast or north north east wedging south south westward, enough cold air at the surface can be drawn in from New England and the Canadian Maritimes to keep it colder over eastern LI..at least for a period of time until the cold air erodes...does not happen very often...but sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Def a colder run. Still a general .25-.50 throughout the area. Everyone should feel better about a change over, barely a mid level warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Its all in the model "noise" especially at being so close to the event. Sorry, its nothing to get worried about. absolutely not sure what others are seeing but this run cuts back on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Definitely a colder run. Qpf looks to be about .35" to .40". Very similar run to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This is a much better run for C NJ than the 18z NAM. Much cooler, and it looks like it keeps C NJ mostly snow. EDIT: Looks like around 0.5" of QPF for C NJ, and most, if not all of it is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 its still .25 to .5, so i cant say it cut back, but we aren't going to see those higher qpf lollipops like 18z its a good run because its colder longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Definitely a colder run. Qpf looks to be about .35" to .40". Very similar run to the euro. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I dont know what others are seeing with the sim refl, but I see several areas of 20-30 dBZ which is more than enough for good snow. QPF always jumps back and forth in models and we are so close to the event i wouldnt buy too much into it. Im happy to see the warm nose not be as strong at 850 for LI as it still looks like snow here at 18z. Maybe sleet with 850 at 0.2C. Definitely a colder run. Qpf looks to be about .35" to .40". Very similar run to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Definitely a colder run. Qpf looks to be about .35" to .40". Very similar run to the euro. I wasn't expecting a whole lot of QPF, so the NAM's output is fine IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Sort of depends on how the cold air is wedging...if a storm is offshore...a consistent easterly flow would likely change Montauk over first...but with the storm approaching from the west and a cold high to the northeast or north north east wedging south south westward, enough cold air at the surface can be drawn in from New England and the Canadian Maritimes to keep it colder over eastern LI..at least for a period of time until the cold air erodes...does not happen very often...but sometimes... There are also some *very* rare occasions when a cold high will build in from the North / NE (very rare)...and draw cold air in from Maine and eastern Canada...I believe it happened a few times during the 1993-94 winter when rain changed to snow over the Twin Forks first as cold air was drawn in from the northeast...while it continued to rain over southern Nassau and western Nassau... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 told you so -euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I dont know what others are seeing with the sim refl, but I see several areas of 20-30 dBZ which is more than enough for good snow. QPF always jumps back and forth in models and we are so close to the event i wouldnt buy too much into it. Im happy to see the warm nose not be as strong at 850 for LI as it still looks like snow here at 18z. Maybe sleet with 850 at 0.2C. you could get away with .2 with better vvs but we lose that at the end it matters not. I agree with you, plenty of good echos on the sims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 More snow for Long Island, NYC, and Northern NJ on the stormvista snow depth maps than the 18z run. 850 0c line never crosses the south shore. Sign me up for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Truth. I dont know how it did it, but the nam gives sw ct .5+ that run looked shredded and weak......I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 told you so -euro No one was saying it was wrong. In fact, I am pretty sure everyone recognized the nam as the warm outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 QPF is .5 to .6 for everybody NYC and south. Looking at high resolution maps on stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yup. 24 hour total is .50"-.60" through 24. A very nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 More snow for Long Island, NYC, and Northern NJ on the stormvista snow depth maps than the 18z run. 850 0c line never crosses the south shore. Sign me up for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 you could get away with .2 with better vvs but we lose that at the end it matters not. I agree with you, plenty of good echos on the sims. NAM was likely overdone anyway with the stronger warm push than any other model, and resulting heavier QPF. 0.3-0.5" of liquid is still a decent, 3-6" kind of storm, like we all were expecting. And fewer people having to deal with sleet or freezing rain issues is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Definitely a colder run. Qpf looks to be about .35" to .40". Very similar run to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think the more intense lift could send me to more of a mix. EIther way, ill take this! you could get away with .2 with better vvs but we lose that at the end it matters not. I agree with you, plenty of good echos on the sims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 21z SREFs are 25-50 miles south of the 15z mean with the 850 0c line at 24 hours. I think that about puts a halt to the north trend -- but we will see. The 00z runs will have all the new stuff ingested. I don't recall a discernable north trend, rather just shifts north and south for several cycles, which is to be expected. The latest data, along with the radar and satellite, looks good to me for a slightly more southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yup. 24 hour total is .50"-.60" through 24. A very nice run. except for metfan, he is all sleet per his request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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