tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 00Z Saturday MSLP Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 28/8 in northern Queens. 28/11, NW Nassau... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The Current radar looks a lot like what the RGEM was depicting in terms of where the rain/mix/snow line. There appears to be a little more snow in Virginia than the RGEM showed, but it looks pretty accurate so far in terms of where the rain/mix/snow lines have set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 21z SREFs are 25-50 miles south of the 15z mean with the 850 0c line at 24 hours. I think that about puts a halt to the north trend -- but we will see. The 00z runs will have all the new stuff ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 29/7 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 21z SREFs are 25-50 miles south of the 15z mean with the 850 0c line at 24 hours. I think that about puts a halt to the north trend -- but we will see. The 00z runs will have all the new stuff ingested. srefs still adjusting from how north they were IMHO, and the fricking etas much everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'd really only worry on south shores. Thats taking things waaaaay to literally. The south fork will change before anywhere on long island regardless of the fact that its slightly further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 23 dpt 6 out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 srefs still adjusting from how north they were IMHO, and the fricking etas much everything up Yeah there were two members which had the 850 0c line into New York State at 15z. There were several which were very far south of the mean as well, though...so I think it's about even in the end. The bottom line is they ticked south a tiny bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah and I wouldnt be surrpised at times if the WRF ones do too. They are running on the old WRFV2.0. srefs still adjusting from how north they were IMHO, and the fricking etas much everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Thats taking things waaaaay to literally. The south fork will change before anywhere on long island regardless of the fact that its slightly further north. nah dude, long beach island is def first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 How are you at 31?im 26 in nw suffolk. That's what I have on my davis vue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah there were two members which had the 850 0c line into New York State at 15z. There were several which were very far south of the mean as well, though...so I think it's about even in the end. The bottom line is they ticked south a tiny bit. Yeah and I wouldnt be surrpised at times if the WRF ones do too. They are running on the old WRFV2.0. time for another SREF upgrade, it was supposed to happen last summer, never did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 we should be snowing in 6 hours per 6Z NAM Well, 0z plus 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 nah dude, long beach island is def first. The warmth is coming from SW to NE, so if anyone on Long Island changes over (not definite but I'd say more than 50%), we'd probably be first. I don't think anyone up here changes over until there's a good 3 or 4" already on the ground. No one's getting plain rain until you're down to the NJ shore. The possible issue here is icing from freezing rain. It does happen from time to time even here-2/1 last year was really nasty. Probably 0.4" of ice that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 28/11, NW Nassau... Or the NW corner of a box placed right in the middle of Nassau lol. I guess I'm technically NE Queens btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 00Z Saturday MSLP Observations what's the source for that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I just went outside for a minute. Its cold, the sky already is starting to get a pink look to it, and it sorta smells like snow. No, Im not a weenie. we should be snowing in 6 hours per 6Z NAM Well, 0z plus 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Or the NW corner of a box placed right in the middle of Nassau lol. I guess I'm technically NE Queens btw. haha well put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 we should be snowing in 6 hours per 6Z NAM Well, 0z plus 6. Sims are empty at hour 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I just went outside for a minute. Its cold, the sky already is starting to get a pink look to it, and it sorta smells like snow. No, Im not a weenie. No, the smell of snow is real, as is the ring around the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Should be snowing at 9z at ISP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 nah dude, long beach island is def first. Before MTK? No way no how! MTK rained through most of boxing day and i didn't have more then 3 sleet pellets.(just one of hundreds of historical examples) The south fork especially the eastern portion is surrounded by water on 3 sides and a east flow there (like the jersey shore) is an onshore flow. The western long island south shore is not onshore in a east flow. Guess what the low level flow will be during this event? EAST so explain to me how Long Beach changes before Montauk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Sims are empty at hour 6. Precip is just entering NYC at hour 9 or 4am. So a 3-4am start on NAM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Sims are empty at hour 6. well, 700 is saturated and 9 hours has liquid equivalent so it is, at least in western sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Should be snowing at 9z at ISP.. 700 is saturated before this, i dont think the dry air is gonna be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 29/14 NW Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Before MTK? No way no how! MTK rained through most of boxing day and i didn't have more then 3 sleet pellets.(just one of hundreds of historical examples) The south fork especially the eastern portion is surrounded by water on 3 sides and a east flow there (like the jersey shore) is an onshore flow. The western long island south shore is not onshore in a east flow. Guess what the low level flow will be during this event? EAST so explain to me how Long Beach changes before Montauk? it was sarcasm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 12z tomorrow 850 line splitting nj in half, 32 line off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 sounding at 12z for ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.