jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The News 12 guy said no more than 1-2 in Brooklyn yesterday. Now he is saying 2 inches by the time the sun rises. They forget so easy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hmm. must be some form of sodium. But Isn't the RUC decent only within 10 hours? Ruc is only useful inside of 6 hours and that's even questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ruc is only useful inside of 6 hours and that's even questionable. Its improved from what it was but I have never really liked it. Its always to warm/wet/west/north it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, the RUC is better closer in but it's replacement for February the Rapid Refresh is colder. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Its improved from what it was but I have never really liked it. Its always to warm/wet/west/north it seems. Couldnt agree more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Still a fairly large spread on the positioning of the 850 0c isotherm. This will make a big difference for many locations just south of NYC's latitude. It will be important to watch the surface low track tonight -- as that seems to be the tip off as to whether or not the mid level warming will surge a little farther north. The models that are bringing the H85 warming a tick north are also bringing the surface low slightly farther north into the Ohio Valley. That is a really awesome graphic. One of these days I need to take a tutorial in modelology - would love to know how to access, read and analyze the models better and be able to post cool (and really useful) graphics like this; I used to do some computational fluid dynamics modeling way back when in grad school (guys I work with still do it, using Dynochem) in chem eng'g, but I've lost most of those skills. Maybe after retirement, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The faster the better for the area. The short range models are supporting a faster start to the storm. Upton has most of the snow falling after 3-4 AM, although the short range HRRR/RR models are already showing the 20+ dbz snow bands moving in by 7z (2 AM) into NYC, with the moderate snow by the morning hours falling with temperatures still in the mid 20s supporting the higher ratios. With a faster storm, it's also possible that it ends a bit earlier than expected, perhaps by 12-1 PM, although we're probably going to get enough moderate snow to end up with at least 3-5" in NYC and 4-6" for northern NJ IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 That is a really awesome graphic. One of these days I need to take a tutorial in modelology - would love to know how to access, read and analyze the models better and be able to post cool (and really useful) graphics like this; I used to do some computational fluid dynamics modeling way back when in grad school (guys I work with still do it, using Dynochem) in chem eng'g, but I've lost most of those skills. Maybe after retirement, lol... Spaghetti plots can be very useful when looking at an ensemble. The mean is taken as truth too often, when in reality looking at the individual members often offers a better look at what's really going on behind the curtain. Here, we can see that the general spread is nearer to the Euro solution but probably a tick warmer than that. Also notice the two extreme outliers to the north, and a few to the south as well. They've also nudged north from the 09z run (not just the mean, the spaghetti plots too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Does the ECM have any dry bias? I noticed on the not so good but still useful weather underground maps that it has noticeably less precipitation, therefore noticeably lower snow accumulations, compared to the NAM and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Still a fairly large spread on the positioning of the 850 0c isotherm. This will make a big difference for many locations just south of NYC's latitude. It will be important to watch the surface low track tonight -- as that seems to be the tip off as to whether or not the mid level warming will surge a little farther north. The models that are bringing the H85 warming a tick north are also bringing the surface low slightly farther north into the Ohio Valley. Because Long island actually runs north a bit from W--> E, looks like eastern sections, from this map, have more room to work with than western sections...so im actually more worried here in northwest nassau than id be out in mid island suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 In early out early. Usually how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Because Long island actually runs north a bit from W--> E, looks like eastern sections, from this map, have more room to work with than western sections...so im actually more worried here in northwest nassau than id be out in mid island suffolk I'd really only worry on south shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 People have been talking about Long Beach, NY. Here is the 18Z RGEM meteogram for Long Beach, NY from 00Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Great lakes radar is a bit underwhelming, while regional se is better than I thought it would be.....certainly does not look like your classic swfe, hopefully things consolidate later on east of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Because Long island actually runs north a bit from W--> E, looks like eastern sections, from this map, have more room to work with than western sections...so im actually more worried here in northwest nassau than id be out in mid island suffolk But you say you live in central Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 But you say you live in central Nassau. I have an identity crisis. Im further west in nassau than east, and further north than south...if nassau were divided into 4 quadrants, id be in the northwest quadrant....but im not in great neck/port washington area, which to me is really NW nassau. So i am in a central location in nassau county, but meteorologically im in NW nassau... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Great lakes radar is a bit underwhelming, while regional se is better than I thought it would be.....certainly does not look like your classic swfe, hopefully things consolidate later on east of the apps. Surface obs in the midwest have been more impressive than radar reflectivities all day. Somebody with a pay for radar might have a better read. Earlier the northern IL stations were reporting heavy snow for several hours with (NWS mosaic) DBZ values below 20. Currently many stations in MI are reporting visibilities at or below 1 mile with reflectivities between 10 and 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I have an identity crisis. Im further west in nassau than east, and further north than south...if nassau were divided into 4 quadrants, id be in the northwest quadrant....but im not in great neck/port washington area, which to me is really NW nassau. So i am in a central location in nassau county, but meteorologically im in NW nassau... No, you have a crisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I have an identity crisis. Im further west in nassau than east, and further north than south...if nassau were divided into 4 quadrants, id be in the northwest quadrant....but im not in great neck/port washington area, which to me is really NW nassau. So i am in a central location in nassau county, but meteorologically im in NW nassau... Best post I've seen in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 HPC 4" chances have been bumped up. Brooklyn has a <40% chance, while Manhattan and areas North and West have a >40% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Best post I've seen in a while yea im cracked out from a long week. Dealing with wedding planning disasters left and right. i dont know if what i type even makes sense anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 yea im cracked out from a long week. Dealing with wedding planning disasters left and right. i dont know if what i type even makes sense anymore when my friend got married he was sooo delirious and out of it too its huge deal man, just hang in there and make the most of it.....or atleast try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 when my friend got married he was sooo delirious and out of it too its huge deal man, just hang in there and make the most of it.....or atleast try Yea im workin on it, might just elope. Sorry OT and Banter. Going to get drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Should be very interesting to get a look at the 00z data. The 18z data looks pretty spot on to the newer hourly RUC runs so I doubt we are going to see many changes. But the spread on the SREF was pretty wide so I would assume we're going to draw closer to a consensus. It's also interesting to note that the Euro was on the cooler side of that SREF mean line. But the small differences are becoming magnified in such a tight-gradient situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like the front edge of snow actually reaching the ground is back in western PA, as Johnstown and Altoona are now both reporting light snow: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=bwi&endDate=20120121&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like the front edge of snow actually reaching the ground is back in western PA, as Johnstown and Altoona are now both reporting light snow: http://weather.rap.u...e=-1&duration=0 Actually it's snowing in State College PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 31/9 in southern queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 31/9 in southern queens 28/8 in northern Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 31/9 in southern queens How are you at 31?im 26 in nw suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I said earlier that I dont expect much Virga, obs out of PA confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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