RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If the entire column had remained nice and cold then yes, but depending on how far north that mid-level warm layer gets it will have an affect on ratios. Of course, as Trials said, we need the WAA to enhance QPF, we just don't want too much of it. always a fine line....agree. i think with .25-.5 qpf, squeezing out 15:1 in the lower 20s is doable. again, as you say...depending how warm the mid level layer gets. even lower 20s at surface doesnt equate to high ratios if the mid levels soak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z gfs + 21hour sounding for stamford CT basically. could you find KDXR soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 same time, south of NYC, basically over the ocean, but close as I can get on twister, its cold enough except the surface I would disregard based on the fact its over the water and its still prob cold enough for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure how much better the ratios will be NW of the city. The profile is not dramatically different from those in and around the NYC area. I expect most of us to be in the 10-12:1 ratio range. im no pro but i think profiles are different if you compare middletown, NY to JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 could you find KDXR soundings? dude, you're snow, i don't need a sounding for that, you won't mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 dude, you're snow, i don't need a sounding for that, you won't mix. lol. good point. i guess i didnt mean whether or not we mix but rather figuring out ratios...like cant one look at mid level temps and surface temps to calculate ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure how much better the ratios will be NW of the city. The profile is not dramatically different from those in and around the NYC area. I expect most of us to be in the 10-12:1 ratio range. I don't know how well you can trust it, the 18z NAM actually went down in ratios from 12z at KMMU. 12z had mostly 10:1 ratios while 18z is now going with mostly 8:1. Total snow on the 12z NAM was ~4.7" while 18z has dropped to only 3.6" total. Meawhile it drops exactly 0.49". That's a tad better than a 7:1 mean ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 At 15z, the 0c line at 850 is right along the south shore or just offshore. At 18z, it's over LI Sound. Between those two times, 0.1-0.25" falls across NYC and Long Island west to east. At least a chunk of that would likely be sleet or freezing rain. That's assuming that the 850mb 0 degree line is the snow/sleet line. Snow should still predominate with the warmest layer between 0-0.5 C, especially if it's relatively shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 esp because my whole winter weenie life im used to nailbiting these events....and now its great to be on the northern fridge but with high ratios, without having to sweat it out. You would have been doing a lot more than "sweating it out" if you lived in Danbury on 2/26/10. arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 lol. good point. i guess i didnt mean whether or not we mix but rather figuring out ratios...like cant one look at mid level temps and surface temps to calculate ratios? 12-1 for you, give or take. Could see a bit higher. edit: Upton goes 15-1 for you, so there you go. you'll do fine. No golf however with the snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 esp because my whole winter weenie life im used to nailbiting these events....and now its great to be on the northern fridge but with high ratios, without having to sweat it out. Nailbiting in Danbury??? Dude, you have no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still a fairly large spread on the positioning of the 850 0c isotherm. This will make a big difference for many locations just south of NYC's latitude. It will be important to watch the surface low track tonight -- as that seems to be the tip off as to whether or not the mid level warming will surge a little farther north. The models that are bringing the H85 warming a tick north are also bringing the surface low slightly farther north into the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nailbiting in Danbury??? Dude, you have no idea no...nailbiting my whole life in CNJ. this is my first winter in Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still a fairly large spread on the positioning of the 850 0c isotherm. This will make a big difference for many locations just south of NYC's latitude. It will be important to watch the surface low track tonight -- as that seems to be the tip off as to whether or not the mid level warming will surge a little farther north. The models that are bringing the H85 warming a tick north are also bringing the surface low slightly farther north into the Ohio Valley. North shore looks good. South shore not so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still a fairly large spread on the positioning of the 850 0c isotherm. This will make a big difference for many locations just south of NYC's latitude. It will be important to watch the surface low track tonight -- as that seems to be the tip off as to whether or not the mid level warming will surge a little farther north. The models that are bringing the H85 warming a tick north are also bringing the surface low slightly farther north into the Ohio Valley. can u get that same chart a few frames ahead? Isnt that before the precip starts? or as it starts? I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You would have been doing a lot more than "sweating it out" if you lived in Danbury on 2/26/10. arrowhead: yea i hear ya...cant win every event. im sure up this way you end up being on the northern fridge of tight coastals but....ill take it over being on the I95 snow/mix line with many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yea i hear ya...cant win every event. im sure up this way you end up being on the northern fridge of tight coastals but....ill take it over being on the I95 snow/mix line with many others. Yeah, definitely. This is getting a bit OT but you get in on overrunning up here more so than CNJ obviously. It definitely sucks when you get screwed by 4 huge coastals..that winter was quite an anomaly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 can u get that same chart a few frames ahead? Isnt that before the precip starts? or as it starts? I could be wrong That's at 21 hours..or 15z Saturday. If the NAM is correct, we're staring down the back edge of the best lift already at that time. Again, I think we could see an hour or two of sleet or freezing rain on the back end south of the city. The mid level warming likes to overperform in these events. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_18z/rad22.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 SREF probabilities were way up at 15z. 50-55%...and pretty much in line with expectations and forecasts. 50-55% chance of 4" over N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still a fairly large spread on the positioning of the 850 0c isotherm. This will make a big difference for many locations just south of NYC's latitude. It will be important to watch the surface low track tonight -- as that seems to be the tip off as to whether or not the mid level warming will surge a little farther north. The models that are bringing the H85 warming a tick north are also bringing the surface low slightly farther north into the Ohio Valley. Nice graphic. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Look out for some light waa snows to break out this evening well in advance of the show, obviously eastern areas would be favored and higher elevations, radar should once again look pretty cool at lower levels as it did last night, upton alluded to this in the latest afd. Good luck to all, my advice would be to hit the hay early, this thing will start ahead of progged times, waa waits for no weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Look out for some light waa snows to break out this evening well in advance of the show, obviously eastern areas would be favored and higher elevations, radar should once again look pretty cool at lower levels as it did last night, upton alluded to this in the latest afd. Good luck to all, my advice would be to hit the hay early, this thing will start ahead of progged times, waa waits for no weenie. should be a good one for us Joe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The warm nose on the RUC wants to push right into Brooklyn. 850's hit 0 in Coney Island at 10 AM tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 starting to see returns into PA now, probably virga, but clearly the WAA is moving its way east at a good clip. Faster start time a good bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The warm nose on the RUC wants to push right into Brooklyn. 850's hit 0 in Coney Island at 10 AM tomorrow morning. looking at the ruc out to 10am tomorrow morning should be take with a huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 starting to see returns into PA now, probably virga, but clearly the WAA is moving its way east at a good clip. Faster start time a good bet at this point. Which is always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Widespread 3-6" so far in northern IL. Greater Rockford Airport is reporting 7" on the ground. Still a band of heavy snow moving through the metro. Michigan is seeing mostly light snow, which matches up well with the models so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Which is always the case. So far the precip is not reaching the ground much ahead of where most models showed it through 00Z or where it should be through 00Z. Alot of the time though these sort of events are on time through about OH/W PA and after that is where they start to really begin with the expanded of the WAA snow shield, so we'll have to watch the next 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The faster the better for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 looking at the ruc out to 10am tomorrow morning should be take with a huge Hmm. must be some form of sodium. But Isn't the RUC decent only within 10 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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