JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Isn't there a Phily forum. More significant snowfalls usually have the 850mb 0 degree line very close by. Heavy snow is SNJ is not climatologically good for NYC north. Even though we are located within the Mt. Holly zone, most of us are technically closer to NYC, hence why we usually post in both Philly and NYC. Let's hope we can all get in on the fun tonight and tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro has not budged and is usually a warmer model so that says a good amount to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Being that the precip isn't close, not sure what you want to nowcast. Still another if not 2 sets of runs to fine tune at 00z and 6z. Because we are less than 10 hours away from seeing snow, I don't see the sense of using the global models anymore, maybe the immediate short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's why I post in the NYC forum. I'm in a Mt. Holly zone but I live 25 minutes from the New York City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Because we are less than 10 hours away from seeing snow, I don't see the sense of using the global models anymore, maybe the immediate short range models. All models have the best verification scores from hour 0-6. Euro is #1 in the hour 0-12 range. Better then any hi-res model. Nowcasting is ancient. As Trials said, the 6zs runs will pinpoint precip amounts and warming best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 All models have the best verification scores from hour 0-6. Euro is #1 in the hour 0-12 range. Better then any hi-res model. Nowcasting is ancient. As Trials said, the 6zs runs will pinpoint precip amounts and warming best. How do the Europeans do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If anything watch this link, you can see the warm punch already approaching SW PA well out ahead of the main QPF shield http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=thck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How do the Europeans do it... wine. It makes everything better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Someone asked for the wrigley field cam here it is: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyfield/ nice to know our area will look like that tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How do the Europeans do it... The Euro is a higher resolution than the GFS, that and Congress keeps cutting funding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 If anything watch this link, you can see the warm punch already approaching SW PA well out ahead of the main QPF shield http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=thck Nice loop. This was very well forecast by all of the models over the past two days. We have to watch how far north the surface low gets in the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nice loop. This was very well forecast by all of the models over the past two days. We have to watch how far north the surface low gets in the Ohio Valley. Well, were aren't getting precip without WAA, so it has to be there to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The Euro is a higher resolution than the GFS, that and Congress keeps cutting funding Its all in the initialization, man. The Euro uses a far superior 4DVAR initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The Euro is a higher resolution than the GFS, that and Congress keeps cutting funding NOAA has an over $5,000,000,000 budget. You would think they could create a good forecast model. Anyway, temps will slowly decline in New York from the lower 30's where they are now to the mid-upper 20's when the snow starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Its all in the initialization, man. The Euro uses a far superior 4DVAR initialization. Some truth. It's model physics as well, and maybe more impt that initialization. Nogaps is now 4dvar but its physics is really behind so it still sucks moose balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well, were aren't getting precip without WAA, so it has to be there to some extent. That loop does show how the precip is now breaking out in Ohio along the leading edge of the WAA. The concern at the moment is that the freezing line at all levels is steadily moving north, not just at the mid-levels. I'm not worried about it as all of the models seem to be pretty locked in, just saying that don't be suprised if precip arrives a tad earlier than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Anyway, back to the situation at hand. Tidbit from upton LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES OFF DELMARVA COAST. NOT MUCH DEEPENING WITH THE LOW AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS QUASI ZONAL WITHOUT MUCH MERIODIONAL COMPONENT TO FLOW AS WELL AS A LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT AS TO WHERE THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE. THE 0.3 TO 0.5 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS SPATIAL VARIANCE WITHIN THE MODELS AND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS EXTRA UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TIME BEING. IF WAA ONSET OF SNOW RESULTS IN QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR...SHORT FUSED WINTER STORM WARNING MAY NEED TO BE REASSESSED. BEST SNOWFALL WOULD BE STARTING EARLY SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING REST OF MORNING AS WELL AS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z SHOWN BY MODELS TO BE BEST TIME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING WITH DECENT Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM 850 TO 500 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 for Middlesex county, NJ.....huh? .SATURDAY...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 should be nice ratios for us N and W of the city..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 should be nice ratios for us N and W of the city..... but you may have less qpf so it could even out for points to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Someone asked for the wrigley field cam here it is: http://www.earthcam....o/wrigleyfield/ nice to know our area will look like that tommorrow thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 but you may have less qpf so it could even out for points to the south. oh yea deff....not saying we are getting jackpotted or anything. its just nice to get fluffy dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 should be nice ratios for us N and W of the city..... If the entire column had remained nice and cold then yes, but depending on how far north that mid-level warm layer gets it will have an affect on ratios. Of course, as Trials said, we need the WAA to enhance QPF, we just don't want too much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 esp because my whole winter weenie life im used to nailbiting these events....and now its great to be on the northern fridge but with high ratios, without having to sweat it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 for Middlesex county, NJ.....huh? .SATURDAY...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. what don't you agree with exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z gfs + 21hour sounding for stamford CT basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 esp because my whole winter weenie life im used to nailbiting these events....and now its great to be on the northern fridge but with high ratios, without having to sweat it out. You benefit in the fact that subsidence should be minimal. It's not like a coastal where banding becomes the main focus and everyone else gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure how much better the ratios will be NW of the city. The profile is not dramatically different from those in and around the NYC area. I expect most of us to be in the 10-12:1 ratio range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Even with guidance today looking better and better, Upton lowered their Central Park projected total from 5.2" to 4.9". Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.