ace0927 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Any normal winter, 4-6" is a big snow event. We have been so spoiled. As a kid I remember how excited I used to get about 3-6 inchers. Tonight and tomorrow morning should be a lot of fun. as an individual who grew up in the 80's i second this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We'll keep each other posted, my Rt 9 brother. 5 miles will make a huge difference. Yes, Lets hope for a 12Z NMM colder solution, keeps H85 Oc line well south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Tmagan, put up your special rgem maps. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wrigley field webcam looks nice, everything covered with mod snow falling. In the webcam they are clearing snow in front of stadium and it gets coated right after they pass! Almost here guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wrigley field webcam looks nice, everything covered with mod snow falling link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last minute surge of WAA may be enough to change the south shore over to sleet or freezing rain...but it will come at the very end of the precipitation. I think it could reach my area as well. But this is much more of a concern over Central NJ and even the NJ shoreline. I could see them getting really reduced amounts because of the initial boundary layer winds and then the mid level warming. These type of events almost never work out for them. The NE surface winds are going to save us big time. I doubt it gets over 30 at any point tomorrow, so we won't be anywhere near rain. Maybe sleet and a glaze of ice at the end. The fear yesterday was the development and advancement of a coastal front that would turn winds to the SE, and torch us fast. Looks almost certainly now like that won't happen and we keep land-based winds. For coastal NJ, NE winds are still from the ocean and still cause a torch. The coastal front might be a problem for many from I-95 east as well. It's probably a quick 1-2" to rain from southern Monmouth on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 link? I use earthcam app on my iPad and iPhone, they have a website to I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 link? http://www.opentopia.com/webcam/3276?viewmode=livevideo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Tmagan, put up your special rgem maps. Thanks. 18Z RGEM Total Rain 18Z RGEM Total Snow 18Z RGEM Total Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 TMagan for president! thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yes, Lets hope for a 12Z NMM colder solution, keeps H85 Oc line well south of us. Isn't there a Phily forum. More significant snowfalls usually have the 850mb 0 degree line very close by. Heavy snow is SNJ is not climatologically good for NYC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM show some signifcant icing on ohio too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 tmagan, do you have those profile graphs that show the exact qpf? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The sky is still mostly clear here in Ramsey, Hard to believe we are less than 12 hours away from a decent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z gfs at hour 18 a little colder then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Isn't there a Phily forum. More significant snowfalls usually have the 850mb 0 degree line very close by. Heavy snow is SNJ is not climatologically good for NYC north. I disagree with this about heavy snow in south Jersey is not good for NYC. An example: PD '03 storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah, gfs cooled a little at 850. Basically city on north would be all snow, city would be right on that line, south of there, its sir mix a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Freaking beautiful!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 lol It's always like this. Near an event, the pessimism over potential QPF totals starts to arise. But it'll be ok, if there is any mixing it won't be too much to hamper snow amounts. This is pretty much 3-6" for mostly everyone around the Metro area and even LI. Luckily I'm in Northern Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z GFS essentially unchanged upon 1st look. Loks like a 2-4"/3-5" deal for all but the southern/eastern extremes in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah, gfs cooled a little at 850. Basically city on north would be all snow, city would be right on that line, south of there, its sir mix a lot. All of NYC is just fine on the GFS. Even the majority of LI is perfect. The warming occurs way late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 All of NYC is just fine on the GFS. The warming occurs way late in the game. i agree, its just south of there you get into the will it won't it line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 TMagan, you have a 18z + 21 gfs sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 tmagan, do you have those profile graphs that show the exact qpf? Thanks. Assume you mean this 18Z RGEM Central Park Meteogram from 00Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 All of NYC is just fine on the GFS. The warming occurs way late in the game. At 15z, the 0c line at 850 is right along the south shore or just offshore. At 18z, it's over LI Sound. Between those two times, 0.1-0.25" falls across NYC and Long Island west to east. At least a chunk of that would likely be sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Shouldn't we start to nowcast now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 TMagan, you have a 18z + 21 gfs sounding? Is that 21 hours? I usually get it after the run is over although I am not sure I get one for the 06Z/18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Most NWS offices will not go with warnings in borderline situations like this. I agree that Orange county and some other ones in inland NJ likely will see warning amounts but there are few too many questions to be confident enough to go with a warning. I remember Upton issuing Winter Storm Warnings while forecasting 3-6" for NYC before the January 2002 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 At 15z, the 0c line at 850 is right along the south shore or just offshore. At 18z, it's over LI Sound. Between those two times, 0.1-0.25" falls across NYC and Long Island west to east. At least a chunk of that would likely be sleet or freezing rain. saying .25 is a little optimistic. .1" line is barely touching NYC. NYC gets .10"-.12" after hour 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Shouldn't we start to nowcast now? Being that the precip isn't close, not sure what you want to nowcast. Still another if not 2 sets of runs to fine tune at 00z and 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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