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January 20-21 2012 Snowstorm OBS & Disco


earthlight

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Ironic that several people were criticizing the NWS yesterday for continuing a winter storm watch for the very areas that will reach warning criteria, when surrounding offices had already posted advisories. I thought the advisory was the right call, although not an obvious one. But the watch was definitely warranted.

SCT further east might get to 6" too. So the discontinuity argument between counties has some merit. Maybe they should have had watches as well.

It's not that surprising. W/W/A goes by average across the zone. If most of us get 3-6, just because a narrow band that bisects a county with 8-10 inches does not equal failed forecast. Forecast and W/W/A still verify as a 3-6 inch storm in that zone, even if someone got 2 feet. At least this is how it has been explained to me by some NWS employees with respect to how they forecast snow and issue advisory vs. warning. Same with claiming a bust if you only get 1-2 inches while most others get between 3 and 6 in a zone with a forecast for 3-6. NWS isn't forecasting for back yards, and people need to keep that in mind when they claim Upton busted on a forecast.

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Getting a light mix of sleet and freezing rain now. Storm total is about 3.1 inches. On the lower end of what I was expecting but I'm still happy. Accumulating snow here ended shortly after 9 AM, which was a lot earlier than I was expecting. The back edge approached here very quickly after that and the banding stayed just to the north.

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Graupel is bouncing balls of ice, but its really a snow crystal caked in frozen water. Thats what I have here.

yeah that's kinda what i have too, upon closer inspection they are cute little star-sized ice... i guess that's graupel??

here some blown-up pics; my cam doesn't do well on macro shots though but you can kinda make out the starry-shape...

DSC02513.jpg

here's a better one with contrast adjusted a bit

DSC02512.jpg

closet to 3" as of 11am

DSC02515.jpg

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