Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 20-21 2012 Snowstorm OBS & Disco


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

hello boys (and girls? are there any of those on here?)--

i've been lurking here for years (first on eastern, now on american), but have never posted, because, frankly, i've never really felt i had much to add to the conversation. and i still don't. but as i sit here (in bklyn) staring out the window at the beautiful white fluffiness, i thought it was time i chimed in. first of all, it's been great to discover that there are other weather freaks out there as obsessed as i am (growing up in the 70s without internet or cable, i used to get my fix by calling the weather every hour--my parents thought i was having an affair with the weather lady). secondly, i want to thank you all for teaching me so much about the science (and art?) of meteorology. i'm just a hobbyist with no background in the field, so it's been fun to learn lots of cool meteorological phrases with which to impress my friends ("arctic oscillation," "high-latitude blocking," and my new favorite "significant stratospheric warming event." finally, a question about this storm: it seems like once the models caught on a couple days ago that a storm was coming, they were pretty consistent in their solutions (from model to model and from run to run). i'm wondering why that is. does it have something to do with the relative lack of dynamics with this system that makes the physics easier for the models to handle?

thanks again, and enjoy the snow...

j

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But the -PNA does not induce strong amplification of heights for any shortwave heading for us; thus, the weaker and colder solution.

SW flow events with ridging on the West Coast or the trough positoned over the Pacific always go north, ones where the trough is more in the Western U.S. and is somewhat shallow and progressive are the ones where we can usually get all snow here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There haven't been many happy endings this winter but this storm is definitely one of them. Many METS thought the models would trend north and warm things up giving us sleet/rain or all rain a few days ago and the opposite happened. Also it's not a marginal surface temp situation either, it's pretty darn cold for this one too so that's a plus.

This storm was pretty well modeled. Snow as the predominate ptype even to the coast well expected. Antecedent cold plus a very weak mid-level low was a very strong signal that mid-level warmth would not surge much past M/D and SNJ. A weaker, suppressed storm was the correct signal.

And despite the low QPF up in the Hudson Highlands, we're still approaching the lower end of the forecasted snowfall. A really nice daytime storm!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Back edge of the storm definitely looks like it's filling up a little. Places south of NYC will probably just see some light snow/mix from now until 12 PM, although northern NJ is still on track to receive light-moderate snow through at least 12 PM, if not a bit later.

No doubt filling in again. Looks like another heavy band is trying to set up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Scratch that, flurries here in NYC... probably end up with ~3"... unless that last band totally whiffs ... and whatever, there was a time in my life when I'd have gotten upset over 2.8 vs 5" ... but that difference is fairly inconsequential

how about 1.5 vs 5? Im not upset but just disapointed. The bands tend to always setup to my NW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...